Active discussions

Meet the Other Phone. A phone that grows with your child.

Meet the Other Phone.
A phone that grows with your child.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Talk
Property/DIY

Join our Property forum for renovation, DIY, and house selling advice.

Original poster

House Price Index October 2023 (Zoopla)

38 replies

Twiglets1 · 30/10/2023 18:31

Key points:

  • UK house price inflation has slowed from +9.6% a year ago to -1.1% today
  • House prices are falling in 4 in 5 local housing markets
  • Strong regulation of mortgage lending has protected the market but household buying power remains low
  • UK house prices will fall 2% during 2024 but rising incomes will improve affordability
  • There will be 1 million sales in 2024 but this could be higher if mortgage rates fall back towards 4%

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/discover/property-news/house-price-index/

OP posts:
KievLoverTwo · 31/10/2023 06:03

I have seen an interview with the guy who prepares this stuff for Zoopla. He is a nice chap, but I think he has blinkers on when it comes to the economy. I really don't think there will be much wage growth next year:

BBC News - Sharp rise in UK firms at risk of going bust, insolvency data shows
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67261798

Woman on the phone behind a bar

Sharp rise in UK firms at risk of going bust, insolvency data shows

The number of businesses in "critical distress" is on the rise as many battle with higher prices and lower demand.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67261798

KievLoverTwo · 31/10/2023 06:09

Alex Groundwater downloaded the September land registry data and analysed it by property type (bear in mind it’s only a sample of around 6k, but it’s still enough to indicate trends). 2% next year seems optimistic.

House Price Index October 2023 (Zoopla)
grottyb · 31/10/2023 06:18

aren't a fair few coming off fixes next yr?

Original poster
Twiglets1 · 31/10/2023 06:36

He’s rather more than just a nice chap @KievLoverTwo he’s a Fellow of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors and has over 25 years experience in property data & analytics.

In December 2022 he forecast that house prices would fall 5% in 23, and that as the most expensive city, London would be hit hardest by higher mortgage rates.

He was more accurate than those predicting a dramatic property “crash” which hasn’t materialised and doesn’t look like it will now, though prices will continue to fall slightly in most areas with London and other expensive cities being the worst affected.

OP posts:
KievLoverTwo · 31/10/2023 06:38

grottyb · 31/10/2023 06:18

aren't a fair few coming off fixes next yr?

1.5 million.

KievLoverTwo · 31/10/2023 06:41

Twiglets1 · 31/10/2023 06:36

He’s rather more than just a nice chap @KievLoverTwo he’s a Fellow of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors and has over 25 years experience in property data & analytics.

In December 2022 he forecast that house prices would fall 5% in 23, and that as the most expensive city, London would be hit hardest by higher mortgage rates.

He was more accurate than those predicting a dramatic property “crash” which hasn’t materialised and doesn’t look like it will now, though prices will continue to fall slightly in most areas with London and other expensive cities being the worst affected.

I would happily take him more seriously if he presents data on the economic outlook for the UK alongside his property predictions. Without it, it’s not enough information to gauge how reasonable or not they may be.

Original poster
Twiglets1 · 31/10/2023 06:48

I take him seriously because he is a serious person with a long and very successful career in property data & analytics and a proven track record.

Everyone must decide for themselves of course what experts or “experts” they find most qualified to give educated opinions.

OP posts:
grottyb · 31/10/2023 06:53

@Twiglets1 are you planning to buy or sell a house or are you just interested the market?

Original poster
Twiglets1 · 31/10/2023 06:57

grottyb · 31/10/2023 06:53

@Twiglets1 are you planning to buy or sell a house or are you just interested the market?

I’m interested in the market. What about you?

OP posts:
DrySherry · 31/10/2023 07:14

I wouldn't be at all suprised if we saw another 10% off values in 2024. His prediction seems wildly optimistic to me. However as Twiglets1 points out he SHOULD be in a better position to make a more accurate prediction than most of us.
The issue often is though with Industry experts that they are personally invested - and have often encouraged friends and family to do the same. Data an analytics can be just as subjective as a finger in the air depending on data points used, methodology chosen and variables considered. It's certainly not a pure science.

Original poster
Twiglets1 · 31/10/2023 07:22

DrySherry · 31/10/2023 07:14

I wouldn't be at all suprised if we saw another 10% off values in 2024. His prediction seems wildly optimistic to me. However as Twiglets1 points out he SHOULD be in a better position to make a more accurate prediction than most of us.
The issue often is though with Industry experts that they are personally invested - and have often encouraged friends and family to do the same. Data an analytics can be just as subjective as a finger in the air depending on data points used, methodology chosen and variables considered. It's certainly not a pure science.

It’s not a pure science I agree and it’s certainly possible his forecast for 2024 could be wrong.

Nevertheless it is the case that his more measured forecast made in 2022 did turn out to be largely correct.

OP posts:
grottyb · 31/10/2023 07:49

@Twiglets1 just saw it in active & am killing time as woke up too early.

These threads do tend to descend into “prices are falling”’ “no they are not” so I wonder if some have skin in the game as that would be logical. I’m keeping a slight eye as i’m on a fix but have 4 yrs left.

Original poster
Twiglets1 · 31/10/2023 07:58

grottyb · 31/10/2023 07:49

@Twiglets1 just saw it in active & am killing time as woke up too early.

These threads do tend to descend into “prices are falling”’ “no they are not” so I wonder if some have skin in the game as that would be logical. I’m keeping a slight eye as i’m on a fix but have 4 yrs left.

Ah ok - I don’t have skin in the game in terms of vested interests and not aware anyone else on this thread does either. Just different opinions 🤷🏼‍♀️

OP posts:
XVGN · 31/10/2023 08:22

Twiglets1 · 31/10/2023 07:22

It’s not a pure science I agree and it’s certainly possible his forecast for 2024 could be wrong.

Nevertheless it is the case that his more measured forecast made in 2022 did turn out to be largely correct.

Show quote history

Any prediction about 2023 prices cannot be confirmed until the deals made in the coming December hit the land registry as completions in around June 2024.

Unless he too is just predicting asking prices and we know that those are irrelevant.

Original poster
Twiglets1 · 31/10/2023 08:29

The data for 2023 isn’t complete yet, I agree.

A certain picture is emerging however and it isn’t one of a house price crash.

OP posts:
XVGN · 31/10/2023 08:31

Twiglets1 · 31/10/2023 08:29

The data for 2023 isn’t complete yet, I agree.

A certain picture is emerging however and it isn’t one of a house price crash.

You know my position. Prices don't crash - they slide. I seem to remember offering you a charity bet a few months back. I think prices will be down 10% when we look at the June 2024 data in the Land Registry. What is your prediction?

grottyb · 31/10/2023 08:35

@Twiglets1 I was on the board quite a bit last yr when working out my length fix & imo there did seem a lot of personal feelings/wants tied up in many posts.

XVGN · 31/10/2023 08:41

grottyb · 31/10/2023 08:35

@Twiglets1 I was on the board quite a bit last yr when working out my length fix & imo there did seem a lot of personal feelings/wants tied up in many posts.

If we're talking about personal feelings and wants, I'd like to see prices down by 50% for the youngsters yet to buy. My predictions are rather more based in reality.

Original poster
Twiglets1 · 31/10/2023 08:42

XVGN · 31/10/2023 08:31

You know my position. Prices don't crash - they slide. I seem to remember offering you a charity bet a few months back. I think prices will be down 10% when we look at the June 2024 data in the Land Registry. What is your prediction?

Show quote history

I have already said several times on Mumsnet my prediction has been a 5% fall over the course of 2023 and another 5% fall over 24. That’s not everywhere as there are regional variations, it’s overall.

You may not have mentioned a crash but others certainly have done on this forum like our friend Crashy. Estimates of 30% plus falls that some have forecast is a crash in my mind, so I like to balance that opinion with my more moderate take on the current property market.

We never exactly agree but we’re not that far apart either in our views.

OP posts:
grottyb · 31/10/2023 08:42

My predictions are rather more based in reality.

but my point is I don’t think you can’t say that for everyone..

Original poster
Twiglets1 · 31/10/2023 08:47

grottyb · 31/10/2023 08:35

@Twiglets1 I was on the board quite a bit last yr when working out my length fix & imo there did seem a lot of personal feelings/wants tied up in many posts.

Yes I know what you mean - some people did seem to visit Mumsnet from a house price crash site to push a certain agenda. They seem quieter now.

OP posts:
grottyb · 31/10/2023 08:48

Certainly if I was a FTB now, I would try & future proof as much as possible; so if you want dc ideally skip the flat stage, buy near schools initially & research as rolls are falling etc.

I think prices in general will stagnant for some time, we have an ageing population that hasn’t been planned for & we are all going to have pay more going forward.

grottyb · 31/10/2023 08:54

@Twiglets1 I saw it on both sides tbh! I gave the above advice re flats and future proofing based on what I was seeing price wise & some posters were incensed bizarrely.
I have never taken a 5 yr fix before & I remember a few posters telling me it was over cautious (I secured my rate in April).

Original poster
Twiglets1 · 31/10/2023 09:04

grottyb · 31/10/2023 08:54

@Twiglets1 I saw it on both sides tbh! I gave the above advice re flats and future proofing based on what I was seeing price wise & some posters were incensed bizarrely.
I have never taken a 5 yr fix before & I remember a few posters telling me it was over cautious (I secured my rate in April).

Fair enough.

I do agree with what you say about flats and future proofing. However, I also know that isn’t possible for some people. For example FTBs in London where a 1 bed flat can easily be 450k or more. They can’t just bypass the flat stage.

But as general advice, yes it’s sensible to future proof as much as possible.

OP posts:
RudsyFarmer · 31/10/2023 09:07

I was researching the local market yesterday and no one in my village has the memo that house prices are falling. People who have been on the market for over a year are re marketing with as much as 100k on top of their asking price last year. Completely bizarre.