6% mortgage rates

[spring33]

Old thread https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/property/4813815-5-mortgage-rates?page=1

New thread, let's hope the next one won't be 7% interest rates or higher.

So kind, your attempts to amuse me, but I've already arranged a few night shifts to allow the junior colleagues a hard earned break when they leave their picket lines. Colouring books, I believe my psychiatric colleagues use them a lot in their work.

And you've given me a boost on my being an AI bot. although double-edged as it may be I have to wait for it to get up to speed. However I still have hope since the AI I've seen has been far far more perceptive than some posters here.

I know, there's always a nutter on each one. It's like a Mumsnet rule.

@maryso , I hope you get what you're after/need from this, whatever that is.

wow did you miss me? or hoping to hound me on something else?

Or did you mean how there's now a rock solid MN consensus that house prices will fall, with today's plentiful advice on sellers reducing and buyers holding back even on lower priced homes, or the finally sinking in with the 30-year US mortgage rate fixes now at 7%, or some who have confirmed for themselves that not only is the BoE content with a margin on 8% unemployment and 17% inflation and 30% house price falls, but the EMF and BIS are shoulder to shoulder with the BoE on raising interest rates? Or that we will be paying for the European war at least not in UK lives but definitely in livelihoods?

Me and my weird tribe only pop out when things can't be done by normal tribes, so we're pretty immune to the abuse and are ok with just getting it right when we can. At least we don't call up grieving families for political correctness when they add a smiley emoji in response to your crass comment that covid was ok for most of us @Twiglets1 because you know it's weird to respect that grief is raw and entitled to not conform to your Stepford correctness and point scoring. BTW there's a nice house on the Lloyd Baker estate for rent at a snip of £600k for a ten year lease, while you have to pay sdlt you won't get evicted. OK that's not 11 years but inflation, you know... And you'll have to google it yourself.

these threads get so weird

Yep they always go batshit, it's never just one poster though!

It's getting to the darned right entertaining stage now.

Popcorn, anyone?

I was thinking more about the booze… a drinking game if you will… a shot every time you see a % or the word “subsidise”.

Read this earlier today and thought it may be of interest to some

https://hoa.org.uk/advice/guides-for-homeowners/i-am-buying/house-price-forecast/

🤣🤣🤣🤣

Some people will always choose to rent over buy including rich people (don't buy anything you can rent etc). However it tends to m ean a family has less stability and roots so particularly in the UK most of us do prefer to own even if in some times it may not make financial sense. Stamp duty has gone up and up however and even in 1997 when I htink it doubled as to the rate we paid the year before we bought and I have still not recovered from paying that massive sum (and in 2023 would be infinitely worse). So today it is harder and less wise to make the series of moves we made from tearraced, semi to detached. These days young professionals in a City might buy a first property and then a final family home to avoid paying London stamp duty of a rate which could be as much as a year's rent or even as much as the price of a small house elsewhere in the UK.

It seems to be looking more likley by the day that this thread needs the title changed " 7 to 8 % mortgage rates".
Scary stuff 😬

Someone started a 7% thread but I can’t find it. Might’ve got derailed.
I read today that markets think 6.25%
will be the peak.

Market now buying Gilts at these levels, looks like 5.5% was the magic number (so just over 6/6.5% mortgage rates). We should now follow the US and inflation should drop from here, most likely sliding into recession in the second half to the end of the year.

That won’t be ‘it’ however. Rates may be cut slightly in a recession but the lows of yesteryear is now behind us as we’re no longer in a disinflation cycle. That means we could start to see the 2nd wave of inflation begin to build next year (salaries, logistics, energy increases get absorbed in at the supply end of the pipe once again).

Central banks were far too slow to raise and react to inflation and they didn’t cut it off by raising above the CPI rate when they had the chance. That second wave of inflation then compounds onto what we’ve already experienced.

What's this about a second wave? Just when it looks like prices are coming down 🙄🤔

His channel is great, no need for faux shilling .

His videos helped me negotiate a substantial amount off my purchase so 🤷🏽‍♀️

Macroeconomics and cycles tend to repeat. That’s why the government has been warning of wage/price spirals in etc.

In the 70’s there were two waves of inflation as interest rates were not raised high or quick enough the first time around. We may see similar this time as we’re following a historical trend (the governments wouldn’t be able to afford to anyway due to GDP/debt ratio)

Of course it did.

I just read that UK inflation is finally falling - down from 8.7% in May to 7.9% in June.

Quote from the Telegraph today : Economists had expected a less marked drop in the headline rate to 8.2pc. June’s surprise was the first lower-than-expected reading in months and came as underlying inflation also eased.

The data eases pressure on the Bank of England to keep interest rates higher for longer. June’s inflation figure was in line with the Bank’s forecasts of a steep drop in inflation, although the rate remains well above its 2pc target.

@3BSHKATS well it did ? Why would I have any incentive to lie about that 😂

That's good but Jeremy cough Hunt said this morning we shouldn't get too excited and should stick to the plan

@Twiglets1 ”I just read that UK inflation is finally falling - down from 8.7% in May to 7.9% in June. “

The rate of inflation reduced true, but it’s still running at 8% so 4 times the desired rate.

The Bank of England are to blame, looking “through” inflation, and being vigilant, instead of acting.
I expect at least another .5% increase on the base rate this year.

The plan was / is 2% by March 2024.

I'm managing to contain my excitement

Do you mean the BOE's plan? That hasn't gone too well so far. How many times have they had to revise their forecast already? About 5 or 6, I think.
All the BOE can do is raise interest rates, check figures and hope. The government, meanwhile are talking about lowering inflation while doing nothing to help with this.
We are seeing inflation come down as the comparisons to last years's massive energy price/petrol price rise make figures look favourable but it's still very high and we still have high core inflation so it would be v over optimistic to assume that the inflation will all go away and not come back again.