Would you look seriously now, or wait due to potential market crash?

[Nowanextraone]

Hi
We are relocating next year to Wales.
We have sold our house and are in rented. When we move, we'll only need a small mortgage of about £50k. We have been looking at houses and seen a couple of perfect ones, thinking we might buy and get it ready during the holidays etc ready for when we move.

Anyway, we keep reading about house prices dropping and the market crashing and my husband thinks we should wait as we would be in touch a good position with no chain, cash ready etc should this happen.

We need to be in Wales for next summer.

Thank you and really looking forward to hearing opinions

Going light on your research again Twiglets? David Hunter is a respected macro-economist who has been doing this for around 50 years and has been hired by many large corporations to advise them on roadmaps.

But hey, folks who wish to learn will put in some effort and others will have to pay the consequences. I'm trying to help all those who say "but nobody ever told me".

I was very clearly replying to @LauraNicolaides not you, in response to the person she quoted who is claiming that property prices will rise 25% in 2023. Though I do in general agree that people are too quick to trust sources from YouTube or TikTok.

I did not comment on the person you quoted.

Some people want the market to crash (so they can buy!). Dont think they will though, some just never do something and always think they know better than the market.

If you dont need a huge mortgage then I think it might well be the time to buy if you are planning to stay for years. You can also get a bargain. However some people will just withdraw their house from the market and 'wait'. This will mean even less houses available for the people who MUST move now.

I would definitely not be listening to You Tube videos because its so variable based on location, what mortgage you need, whether you really need to move etc. If they really knew how to game the market they would be mulit millionaires lounging on a beach.

But that's not all "wasted" money compared to buying because when you buy, most of what you pay in the first few years is interest not capital anyway.

But it will be mostly interest for the first years of a mortgage, if you don't take out that mortgage for another 5 years. Whereas the person who took it out now, will be 5 years in, and moving on to a higher % of their payment starting to decrease the capital.

Thank you. I'll take a look. You can check out pretty much any of the videos in which he is interviewed and you'll get a short potted history of his 50 years in business in Wall Street both on the buy and sell sides, informing corporations and pension funds.

Not a gold bug: just forecasting how gold (and other commodities and equities) are likely to react in a melt up (to $3000) and the global bust (down down down) and the final QE phase following the global bust (to $20000 - also oil to $450 and silver to $500?). At the end of all that, in the 2030's/2040's, we'll possibly experience the default of the western world as they'll be unable to service the debt in a world of 20% inflation and interest rates - 50-75% unemployment, limited benefits, no real functioning NHS because we cannot afford it, etc.

All jolly stuff, and I hope to shit he's wrong, but nobody has offered me an alternative to how the debt gets managed. Don't panic - just get prepared and keep your fingers crossed.

But the person who has not been paying off the capital element of their mortgage for those five years (and building up housing equity) will have had that money available to them for other purposes. (Could be used for anything, maybe investments which might go up in value, not down!).

I'm buying (hopefully) right now. I do worry that I might over pay but as I'm renting at the moment I also have the fear that I could get a huge rent increase this autumn as I haven't had one for a while. Or if I get notice to quit the rents have got so high I couldn't afford another rental..

Just reporting back.

Lots of the Adam videos are more about trading (I'm an investor rather than trader). However, I got back to one on the macro strategy side, with John Rubino. He pretty much repeats all David Hunter was saying (but not so detailed) including the advice to get into commodities for the next cycle. Not a gold bug - just advising what to expect.

They had an interesting discussion about house prices (US focused but applicable to here) where they talked about all the things I have mentioned regarding prices being set at the margins and those margins being driven by the 3 D's - death, debt and divorce. He joked that it'd be better to wait 3 years rather than buying now. I think I have said that too!.

All good stuff - even though it's on (shhhhh!) Youtube.

That is assuming that prices go up. Otherwise, some or even all of the equity may just be lost.

I'm not at all interested in trading either and don't watch most of the videos and those I do watch are for general economic interest. I have seen the Rubino one plus several others over a period of time. I've been seeing similar things about prices being set at the margins and that the economic outlook is dire but, of course, lots of people don't want to hear it. I don't place much store by very specific predictions as I think that's impossible but I definitely think we are likely to see a very negative outlook including continued inflation plus multiple defaults across the system leading to even more nasty things! That's why I can't see anything 'positive' for the housing market.
I expect you will agree that you can tell pretty quickly who is worth listening to and who is not.

You can. It's easy to filter out the fluff that triggers some users here. But you just need to be aware of confirmation bias and look out for opposing views to challenge your own.

On inflation, I think that it turns zero or even negative (deflation) during the global bust, but then as the central banks panic and fire up the printers to save the banks, it'll trigger even worse inflation than we see now. Lastly governments run out of money and cannot print enough to pay the interest on their debts let alone borrow enough to fund the welfare budget. I thought that Rubino smiling during the interview was a little unnerving.

Oh, and if you like this stuff then you'll probably be familiar with Lyn Alden who is fantastically meticulous and detailed in her analysis.

https://www.lynalden.com

Well, not if they are using it to rent somewhere to live, which is what we are talking about here.

There was a really interesting economist on the Jeremy Vine show (Radio 2) today who explained the present state of financial affairs in everyday language, ie I Could understand it!

One of the listeners questions was to do with buying houses. If I recall, he said that if it’s a long term home, and you don’t mind a bit of a rollercoaster ride, then go for it.

I am familiar with her name and have seen Adam interview her too or at least part of an interview.
My personal favourites are rather left on mainstream but I won't share on here!

OP In your position I’d go for it. I don’t think that trying to play the markets one way or the other is particularly wise. So-called experts don’t agree about it, so it’s unlikely that anyone on here will be able to say for sure. I think that having made the decision to move, I’d just want to get cracking!

If you give a general idea of location and state your budget, Mumsnetters from that area may be helpful.

Monthly payments made of repayment mortgages consist of two elements.

The interest element of the mortgage payment is the equivalent of rent. It's money spent to use someone else's asset (their cash or their house).

The capital element is the equivalent of saving - it increases your net worth.

People have been talking about a crash for the last few years. Had my son waited 18 months, he would have been paying 6% interest on his flat, rather than under 2%. No crash where he lives (yet) and thankfully, he got a five year fix.

'The capital element is the equivalent of saving - it increases your net worth.'

Only if you make the assumption that house prices are rising. At present they are falling.

People have been talking about a crash for the last few years

Some people have been talking about it for 20 years!

With rates as they are, and likely to rise further, there are the right circumstances for there to be downward pressure on prices. The direction of travel is now pretty clear.

Those people who fall in to the category of forced sellers are the ones who will have to accept prices that the market will pay, and that is almost certain to be down on what might have been achieved over the last couple of years.

But that doesn't mean that all houses are likely to see a crash in their value.

But very desirable properties will always remain in demand. Other properties where supply outstrips demand will see far greater falls, likely to be flats with no outside space.

Same with my daughter getting a fix at under 2% in May 2022.

Only for 3 years though which is now looking like a mistake.

Those people who fall in to the category of forced sellers are the ones who will have to accept prices that the market will pay, and that is almost certain to be down on what might have been achieved over the last couple of years.

But that doesn't mean that all houses are likely to see a crash in their value.

Absolutely.
I think as most of us are talking about our home then it is an emotional decision as much as a business one. I think the % of people who choose to buy or sell purely on 'what the market is doing' must be tiny compared with the number of people who make the decision to buy or sell based on the personal circumstances in their lives.
Even is it cost several hundred, or even a few thousand over the years, the feeling of knowing the building you are living in is your long term home is worth a lot to many of us - even in terms of being able to decorate or plant something in the garden or make a small adjustment to the house / garden / driveway or get a shed or whatever, as well as the bigger things like security of school places for dc (and wrap around care and clubs and teams they belong to etc etc).

But the capital element of the mortgage repayment still increases your net worth.

I really hate the term 'net worth'. It sounds so pompous and it is also totally theoretical and very much time based as well.
Apart from that you can repay your mortgage and once you have paid for 25 or 30 years you will own the house. I meant that if you are in negative equity for years, you are effectively losing money and if you suddenly needed to sell you could lose all your capital.

Well land data registry uk sold prices average drop is already 12% so that’s untrue
we follow lots experts wth data showing facts

image is actual official land registry SOLD prices you can see the property details and the drops sept 22-sept 23 along with big guns now selling billions in shares Amazon bids etc us a huge indication of massive down turn 2024

we are waiting we are cash buyers 10 Yeats plan is good but potential by 2026 -10 to 20%

watch
moving home with Charlie

he is on YouTube great guy knows his stuff