Are property prices affected by predicted sea level rises?

[SweetSakura]

Just idly wondering really as we drove through an area predicted to be at significant risk from sea level rises based on modelling, but there are still lots of houses being built there. And I just wondered whether the predictions are affecting price /ease of selling or whether people are just hoping the modelling is very pessimistic?

We factored it in - the house we're moving to is 75m above sea level and not near any major rivers.

In the same city they're getting ready to plonk a huge housing estate right next to a major river that now floods catastrophically every spring. The area they're building on is already flooded, so god knows what the plan is.

I read that. This bit in particular is chilling:

When Nicola's parents bought the house for £76,000 in 2000, a surveyor said it would be at least 150 years before the cliff eroded.

The mother-of-two believes it is now worthless. She will have to pay £2,000 for it to be demolished. The house opposite was valued at £1 before it was taken down.

Yes this bit really shocked me * When Nicola's parents bought the house for £76,000 in 2000, a surveyor said it would be at least 150 years before the cliff eroded.

But also the article talked about coastal defences for erosion /sea level rises but we simply won't be able to defend the whole coastline (and the govt certainly isn't planning to at present)

I wonder if it's partly the tail end of the lockdown homebuying trend. People moving from urban to rural areas, seeking a pretty view of the river/sea and not thinking through the downsides.

But also the article talked about coastal defences for erosion /sea level rises but we simply won't be able to defend the whole coastline (and the govt certainly isn't planning to at present)

Absolutely, the bulk of the effort will be focused on London, and given how at risk they are it'll be a mammoth undertaking.

There are parts of the coastline where the river / local authorities have already said there is no intention of defending against coastal flooding as the cost benefit analysis simply doesn't justify it.

Take Fairbourne, on the coast of Gwynedd. It is anticipated that parts of it will be uninhabitable by 2053, so in 30 years' time. Yet 6 properties sold there in the last year - admittedly not at high prices in most cases. Perhaps people look at it as renting rather than buying. I suppose £138.000 pounds over 30 years is less than £400 a month, though if you have to get a mortgage it's more than that.

And even in those areas that are going to benefit from an investment in coastal defences there will be an uncomfortable dependency on engineering and modelling. Some of the defences near us were predicted to last 30 years and haven't even lasted 10 years.

This is because of new builds. The new houses are built on the former floodplain that saved historic towns. The flood defences that are built to protect the new builds on flood prone land causes the river to burst its banks further down stream, flooding of old towns that were previously absolutely fine when the flood plains protected the town. Excess water has to flow somewhere.

I’m increasingly worried about new build developments on flood plains - no-one models where the water flows after the bunds and new flood walls are constructed to shield these estate. Houses and towns further down stream that never flooded are now at severe risk.

Yes I wonder about this too - it seems to me like the smart money should be buying up any property on high ground, as won't it be worth a fortune in decades to come? I don't have any money smart or otherwise, more's the pity.

Yup. Balancing ponds in new estates are a common engineering solution to drainage and flooding issues, but developers wind up and nobody maintains the sluices. They are constructed the bare minimum standards to comply with planning conditions. If you see one in a new development, it’s because it’s flat land and flood prone land. Run away. Hard standing, roads, paved drives and patios all have massive run off and often the conduits are blocked with leaves, rubbish and debris and the ponds don’t cope.

It’s much cheaper just to move them. The govt doesn’t even need to buy their house, just provide social housing somewhere.
It’s impossible to prevent coastal erosion, better to concentrate on flood prevention.
If a ‘vulnerable’ town gets millions spent on it, then increase the council tax to recoup the costs.

I don't know but when I moved 5 years ago it was something I considered. I'd have loved to live by the sea but nowadays I just wouldn't. And there are areas in my town affected by river flooding occasionally, which will be much more so in future. I avoided those as well. I live at the top of a valley.

It's definitely something I considered when buying. I'm not in a flood zone and 76m above sea level

A colleague is looking to leave Teddington as he's 9m above sea level and the predictions for that rather nice part of Greater London / Surrey are dire.

I looked when we bought our current home. We are 63 meters above sea level although we are costal. Minimal risk.

I remember years ago querying why our insurance company had attached a flood premium. It's because an area less than 50 meters away flooded badly and I guess it showed up as nearby. At the time we were are the top of a big hill. I told them if we flooded then the majority of the county would be underwater and no, the water hadn't ever been that high.

@C4tastrophe I agree. My shock was directed at how wildly optimistic the surveyors predictions turned out to be.

Bude is an area in trouble. It will surely affect house prices.

www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/06/bude-in-cornwall-awarded-2m-pounds-to-fight-climate-threat#:~:text=The%20funding%20from%20National%20Lottery,systemic%20change%2C%E2%80%9D%20he%20said.

That article links to the map I was referring to. It makes for sobering viewing.

It was Selsey and Portsmouth I went through recently but the same thoughts apply to so many coastal places.

I still forgot to link to the map! coastal.climatecentral.org/map/14/-4.539/50.8285/?theme=sea_level_rise&map_type=coastal_dem_comparison&basemap=roadmap&contiguous=true&elevation_model=best_available&forecast_year=2050&pathway=ssp3rcp70&percentile=p50&refresh=true&return_level=return_level_1&rl_model=gtsr&slr_model=ipcc_2021_med

Londons looking pretty shocking

London will be protected, at any cost, no one needs to lose sleep over that.
It’s London that bank rolls the country.

Agree London will be protected, but vast sections of the coastline are affected and I don't see how we can protect it all

I was very sorry to hear a few of the bungalows near me flooded badly during the recent heavy rains - and I was told they have been built on a flood plain. Building housing for older people on a flood plain seems ridiculous to me.

Southampton not looking great. It is mainly reclaimed land though so not that surprising

Yes I remember seeing a map once of it in the past and most of what is now the town was actually water!

We bought inland and looked at floodplains etc for this very reason. Would have loved to be by the sea but I remember hearing if friends friends in Florida who couldn't sell their house along the keys because the sea is going to eat them up in less then 50 years or something along those lines