Someone reassure me about selling/buying at this time

[Fritilleries]

Just that, house on market, we are in conveyancing stage of purchase on a 4 bed detached at 340 which needs work done over time. It's a "forever home" in a really nice area. But I saw something about house prices falling 24% next year and now I'm freaking out. Help. I need rational thought.

A really big property crash would be the best thing to happen to UK society in decades IMO, cheap property is absolutely the best thing for ordinary hard working people, because they can secure a home and then go on to put their money into savings/investments, liquid and diversified investments that dont carry the same risks as property. Unfortunately very large numbers of the UK public are so thick that they believed the bankers when they said that the more you borrow for a house the more "wealthy" you are, LOL, you couldnt really make it up could you?

If you wait you will sell for less too. It evens out.
If you want the house that house to live in then buy it .
Do you want or need the house as a home ?

OP it doesn't sound like you would be making a bad financial decision? I think the problem will be whether or not your chain will withstand the current economic situation. It was tough for FTBs before the interest hikes. It is now even tougher for FTBs to get on the property ladder. Their buying power has been totally diminished. It also seems like the buy to let investors have been scared off with all the tax changes etc. Who is going to buy the FTB properties going forward? I think that is going to be a potential problem unless the chain doesn't involve one?

I could be wrong, but I think they still need to sell their existing house? If so they definitely have the cart, the horse, and the driver in the wrong places.

Yes, there is a small group who think a 'crash' would be good, this theory has done the rounds for years, but it would be pretty messy and would cause a lot of problems.

I would wait if you are buying without a mortgage.

I live in a very popular area with lots of sales all through the pandemic. I have already noticed reductions. I had my house valued six months ago and a house around the corner exactly the same as mine has just been reduced by nearly 30%.

I bought my first property in the 90s and ended up with it in negative equity for a decade. But prices eventually rose again and it sold for more than I paid…

If you’re likely to stay in this house for years, and you’re going to renovate I don’t think you’ve anything to worry about.

In the past 20 years there have been several predictions of house prices falling, and it’s not happened. I’ve dithered about sales/purchasing a few times. Hopefully it won’t be as bad as they say.

Sorry to burst your bubble (pardon the pun) but it isn`t a "small group", where did you hear that only a "small group" want affordable basic shelter?

No, it is a small group who want a house price crash.

Everyone wants affordable basic shelter. A house price crash is not the sane way to achieve that.

Anyway, I guess time will tell.

How would you achieve it? (Hypothetical question really because the insanity of borrowing over the last 15 years has just met interest rate rises, so the crash scenario is now most likely)

If the choice is a crash or no crash, I'm going no crash, because the fallout would be severe. You can't just smash a piece of the economy and expect a happier situation afterwards. Full restructure of the UK housing market is not an easy ask, a combination of tighter mortgage conditions, increased supply, tenancy improvements, social housing building, control of holiday homes etc would need to all come together.

If you sell and wait to buy then you need to factor in rental costs. I hope to be in a similar position (currently under offer). Our plan is to rent initially as we are moving to the other side of the country and we will need to do that for at least 6 months to secure somewhere. As soon as we see the ideal property we will go for it. I’m not hoping/expecting to cash in on a crash (I just want a home for at least 10 years), but am grateful that property seems to have stopped increasing practically weekly thus decreasing buying power while we wait to find somewhere.

There isn`t a choice now, that choice disappeared as soon as the FED decided to break inflation with serious interest rate rises, the news coming out of China is going to dampen global sentiment as well as causing more inflation.

www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-daily-covid-cases-hit-record-high-2022-11-24/

As others have said it's a forever home so who cares.
One thing that might make you feel better is whether you managed to negotiate a cheaper price for it as conditions have changed since July/August?

It had been on the market for ages at 425, disappeared and then went back on in October at 349. I offered 330 and was pushed to 340. One of a kind detached, 1934 built, 4 bed, massive garden. As you said, it's a lifetime home. So I feel OK.

I bought in 2007 at the top of the market before the crash, on a 100% mortgage. (Long story!)

I imagine I was in negative equity for some time. I don't know as I didn't check and didn't really care. I had a lovely home to live in - and that's the reason I bought it. I wanted a home first and foremost, and to be out of the rental cycle.

Fifteen years later, I'm about to sell and even if prices drop, I'll have made a healthy profit. Even on a shitty mortgage with a stupidly high interest rate.

We've just bought what could be our forever home. It needs lots of money spent on it to make changes (incl an annexe for DM).

Over time the value will rise and we'll have a property that's worth more than what we paid, even with the building costs. But as I don't plan on moving any time in the foreseeable future, it's not something that I'm fixated on. Property is always a good investment in the long term, and if it's providing you with a happy home while steadily increasing in value overall, then you're in a win/win situation.

Why does it matter what prices do next year, or in five years if it’s a forever home? Unless you’re planning to sell its fucked

someone wrote up thread that anyone with a massive mortgage would be fucked if prices drop. No they wouldn’t, the only people fucked would be anyone forced to sell and who couldn’t ride it out. For everyone else it’s totally irrelevant.

Thanks. I feel much more reassured. Happy weekend. Is it me or is it still very dark?

Forced sellers (debt, divorce, relocation, death) but also anyone moving into negative equity which can be easily done on 90% LTV. Those would have to switch to a much more expensive and unsustainable SVR, ending up selling their house at and no money or even debt to the bank at the end of it.