The crazy world of UK house prices

[Sheenqueen]

Prices are still increasing and very likely to remain higher than pre/pandemic levels despite predicted drop. With higher interest rates, many will be priced out of the market for years.

www.thesun.co.uk/money/20111498/uk-house-prices-hit-record-high/amp/

And?

Prices are still increasing

They're really not.

What you have linked to is data showing average asking prices.

When the cost of mortgage debt has at almost quadrupled in under a year there is no way on earth this cannot have an impact on prices. How much and how quickly remain the unknowns.

Yeah I don’t think that’s the case around here. Prices have stagnated for sure. We’ve just given up for now as no one knows what houses are worth and trying to find a proceedable property was a nightmare. We might look again next year 😬

It's initial asking prices. That's all. Look a land registry to see what is actually happening.

Prices are definitely still up round us. We bought in July, a smaller house a few doors down has just sold for £10k more.

There's such a lag with actual sold price data that the Land Reg figures today will show prices agreed back in the spring or early summer.

It will be well in to 2023 before the Land Reg confirms what prices are being agreed today.

Analysis is generally on asking prices rather than land registry prices. However, if asking prices are still healthy, the final agreed prices will also follow a similar trend.

It would be quite something if the two curves were following opposite trends. Rather, one curve (asking price) would sit above the other but I doubt the gap between them would be turning into the Grand Canyon.

The analysis below is from back in June but the numbers give you a sense of how much asking prices and sold prices would need to deviate for there to be any revolution in terms of house prices in the future (bearing in mind house valuations and estate agents take these into account when deciding house value.

www.propertyreporter.co.uk/property/ow-stock-continues-to-shrink-the-gap-between-asking-and-sold-prices.html

Analysis is generally on asking prices rather than land registry prices

Not sure I completely agree with that.

Given the cost of mortgage borrowing has moved from 1.something to 5.something this year, how do you think that is likely to affect prices?

I’m referring to headline analysis in the media.

Price growth will slow. Huge drop in prices? Anybody’s guess. So far, seems the trends in relation to prices, reductions are inline with last year, including seasonal trends.

Shamelessly stolen from elsewhere, because it sums up the present situation quite well:

The housing market is like a supertanker, it takes a long time to alter course or to change speed. Falling prices won’t show up in official data until January & most sellers won’t accept they've changed before Easter

I think it’s at the peak where people are insanely optimistic about asking prices - happens at every peak.

i was looking this weekend at places that were 50% at asking from what they were bought at two years ago with no work.

the impact of the recent massive mortgage increases etc will only just start to have an impact

i don’t think there will be a mahoosive crash - but I do think prices will go down. And transactions will go down.

i don’t think there will be a mahoosive crash - but I do think prices will go down. And transactions will go down

That's the most likely outcome. Prices down 10-15%, which in many places is only down to where they were Spring 2021. Transaction numbers down whilst people consolidate their existing position, rather than increase borrowing. Market will be shaped by those that have to move, typically death, debt, divorce.

Another interesting take on things

www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-11327445/There-wont-house-price-crash-says-Fred-Harrison.html?ico=mol_desktop_home-newtab&molReferrerUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fhome%2Findex.html&_ga=2.33768289.1561015477.1664741868-1693259829.1638014321

Asking prices, LOL, use PropertyLog to follow them down folks!

www.propertylog.net/

This didn’t age well did it. Hope the OP got their sale through.

in only 6 weeks!

Prices are not increasing. They are falling.
www.theguardian.com/money/2022/dec/16/uk-house-prices-fall-next-year-halifax-forecast

Plenty of threads on here with people braying about telling "cheeky" buyers to do one are starting to look pretty silly now.

A proper price correction would be a breath of fresh air for UK society, millions will welcome it.

That's not really a trend though just two deals. People pay more if they want it or for other random reasons.