Is housing market set to crash ?

[Moominsweetie]

Talk to me, clever people - what’s the outlook over the next 6-12 months?

"LOL you haven't replied, guess you don't know the answer..."

?? Are you on something? I don`t really feel the need to get up at 8.30 am to reply to your Womble World economic rantings thank you very much.

You say nobody can buy in crashes...Boo Hoo.......My posts were about who buys AFTER crashes! If all these crashes that you lived through were so bad HOW DID THE BIGGEST PROPERTY BUBBLE IN HISTORY MANAGE TO DEVELOP? LOL.

I will give you a clue - It wasnt wages, it wasnt a Magic Fairy (well it was, kind of, but it was an Evil Fairy - good for bankers, very bad for ordinary people) it was something to do with something you get given to you but have to pay back more of for the privilege of living in a basic structure with a roof..............after every downturn the bankers have facilitated this thing, and they have done more of it, but this time they can`t go back to the way it was after 2008 or else inflation will rip the wheels off their Magic Money Machine, but they will put this machine in a low gear and let solvent people use it......at much much lower house prices, because that is the only way they can keep the machine turning over.

Oh, lovey. That bit was in quotes, I wasn't complaining that you haven't replied to my posts.

Btw does anyone else keep getting his posts in an odd font with what looks like bits of coding in there? What's that all about, is it the internet version of writing letters in green ink?

The bankers Evil Fairy is trying to stop me spreading the truth maybe? Or maybe it is a problem with the website? LOL

"Like bankers and people who bought in the 1980s expecting the young and FTBers to borrow 10 times their income for a Sky Box in London, that sort of unpleasantness you mean?

CHEAP PROPERTY IS GOOD FOR HARD WORKING ORDINARY PEOPLE, WHY WOULDN`T IT BE?

Don`t you grasp this yet??"

Well greed isn't a likeable trait in anyone. I'm not defending these faceless bankers from 40 years ago. But people who wanted a house in the intervening years had no choice but to operate within the system they found themselves in. They worked hard, saved hard, bought the best house they could and are now worried and maybe also in a precarious financial position and I find it baffling that anyone would enjoy that.

CHEAP PROPERTY IS GOOD FOR HARD WORKING ORDINARY PEOPLE, WHY WOULDN`T IT BE?

It is & interest rates at "normal" levels are better for the economy. Hopefully we will have a small fall & then long stagnation rather than a huge fall. The days of doubling your house value in a few yrs are certainly over!

I wasnt clear enough, the bankers in 1981 were not running property like a Ponzi scheme, 81 was a serious recession, probably the last bad one in the UK, you could pick up plenty of cheap property especially with cash I would have thought.

The joke about MSE was that people who bought in 81 and91 and even late 90s realised in the 2000s that there was rocket fuel under their house price, whether they decided it was "supply and demand" or "too much cheap credit" doesn`t matter really but there is an abundance of people on forums (not any more, they would look silly) saying buy now, buy buy buy, IMO a lot of that is (was) driven by wishing their own house price to stay high.

Th bankers I am talking about were operating in the 2000s, and it got really bad for society when governments and central banks stepped in to bail them out of their mistakes, of course large numbers of people went along with the "property always goes up" mantra and now large numbers of people are going to learn a hard financial lesson. There isnt really any joy in that, but to me it feels right somehow.

Can`t really see "stagnation" after small drops happening, previous crashes (not 2008, that was bailed out immediately and has led us to the present mess) usually hit a bottom after a decent correction and stay there for a few years? Property is sentiment driven to a large extent and I think the mania of the last few years will turn to fear and unwillingness to take on large mortgage debts, leading to sizeable price drops.

Maybe the internet does a red crayon version for you?

Who knows, eh?

www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-11327445/There-wont-house-price-crash-says-Fred-Harrison.html?ico=mol_desktop_home-newtab&molReferrerUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fhome%2Findex.html&_ga=2.33768289.1561015477.1664741868-1693259829.1638014321

@DeadHouseBounce you read and responded to that comment nearly a week ago.

L'esprit de l'escalier?

I'm going to leave off baiting @DeadHouseBounce for a moment, because I'm interested to know what HPC makes of Fred Harrison.

"'Whatever else Liz Truss does, she will not offend her home-owning voters.'"

LOL, she just did mate, the bond market is watching the UK like a Hawk now,.

@DeadHouseBounce don’t be too emotionally invested in misery for others. Fact is, anything can happen.

Calm down and stop trying to wish disaster for your own strange self aggrandisement. You are not going to brow beat people with your incessant talk of disaster to join you in your muddy puddle. If we all wail in terror because we did not listen to you, then so be it.

It may interest you that I predict that house prices in the UK will remain ridiculously high until the UK miraculously increases in land size.

Nobody knows. Most experts who understand the market think prices will stabilise or fall, but nobody knows for sure if they will, or if they do, how much.
Anyone who says they 'know' is not worth listening to.

Exactly. Truly no one knows. We can hope it goes one way or the other depending on our circumstances but that’s all there is.

For all we know prices could somersault, spin around, go up, down, sideways.

Sorry to break it to you, but if you loaded up on mortgage debt you are already in a very muddy and deep puddle.

No, sensible people do know and hopefully the audience here are not at Nursery School so we should not speak with mortgaged tongue, in the adult world if mortgage rates go high high to the sky house prices fall down.

@DeadHouseBounce I can categorically say you do not truly understand economics - neither at the macro level or the micro level. You come across as someone who read lots of books but never had a true grounding in how things are actually connected.

What intrigues me is what you’re hoping to achieve with this strange crusade of your.

No, we know that asset prices will fall but no one knows the exact timing, nor the exact percentage nor the exact distribution in the country.

'It may interest you that I predict that house prices in the UK will remain ridiculously high until the UK miraculously increases in land size.'

Your theory here doesn't make any sense. Did everyone suddenly leave the country in 1990 and 2008? Or was it related to major changes in the supply of credit and the financial economy? Rhetorical question.
We now have a major change in the cost and supply of credit plus high inflation and the start of a recession.

If anyone is struggling with their mortgage payments they should contact the provider and discuss how to ride this difficult wave, eg agree a longer repayment term.

The things that people will really struggle with and for which there are very few options are food and energy costs.

Oh and with the prices in the rental market about to go into overdrive, it guarantees strong demand for homeownership in the future. That and an island with limited housing stock means that house prices will always be on the upward trajectory long term with a dip here and there along the way.

People need a roof over their heads. If you can’t buy , you rent. High demand in rental market pushes up rents and makes home ownership attractive. Cost of borrowing high, earning on savings going up.

Always a waterbed effect unless there are leakages big enough to impact the general trend.

@rainingsnoring and @DeadHouseBounce you two are one and the same. Stop changing handles to agree with yourself. It’s pathetic.

Tell us then how things are connected Oh Wise One, then tell us if we live on a Big island or a Traffic island and how the supply and price of credit affects asset prices when mixed with dwindling sentiment?

They are definitely NOT making any more land! Your house price will never never crash! Come on no one believes that....do they?

Moi? Wise and be? No prophet of doom, you are the all too wise one drunk on your misery and nonsense. Stop trying to recruit others into your muddy puddle.

House prices will fall, rise, double back and who knows what else.

We get it! Your point is made. House prices will fall into the pits of hell and those who have borrowed are about to experience hell on earth for their stupidity.

That should have been “wise one?” Excuse my fat fingers 😁