Home renovation costs - slow down in 2023?

[Holidayinginmymind]

So, this is my very optimistic thread (on a number of counts - still need to exchange on house!). We are buying a house we plan to do a lot of work on, although probably not all at once. We will do a second floor extension (on top of existing one floor), a loft conversion and a kitchen extension and side return single storey extension.

I know costs are through the roof, and have read a number of suggestions on here that with the looming recession (which I fear may be unlike anything we have experienced for decades, so new to my generation and below) that they must slow down as people tighten their belts.

Does anyone think that might start in 2023? Or is the backlog of demand still so high that it won’t happen until 2024 onwards?

I know this is a bit of a Crystal ball type of a question but if anyone has any insights that would be great!

Actually, it is not optimism. That is a poor choice of words, given any slow down is going to be caused by hardship! So perhaps it is selfish to hope the crazy prices cool down. They just are so insane compared to what we paid for work 10 years ago!

To put a floor on top of an existing ground floor, are you sure that the foundations and walls are strong enough? If not, you may be starting again.
I don’t see a reduction in costs though there may be more availability with builders. The inflationary pressure will be most felt in supplies from abroad.

I agree with @NewHouseNewMe think your chances of getting a builder will be better but prices are only going one way.

I hope so. I just got a quote for a front door for £32,400!

Seriously??? Wow

I dont think costs are going to be the issue - labour is. We are in the middle of a loft conversion right now and the builders are 3 weeks behind already because they / the subcontractors are losing labourers left, right and centre. A lot of construction labourers left after brexit, now we have insanely high cost of living so lots more leaving, plus the strong jobs market mean construction isn't as attractive anymore. I would factor in massive delays to any plans.

Where do you live……. The Tower of London ?

Don’t bank on costs going down. Materials are still very expensive and good builders have waitlists up to two years.

North west @Diyextension

It was for a glass pivot door. So not run of the mill but still only aluminium and glass materials. I was rather surprised. Needless to say we won't be going ahead!

If you have a stable high income, that's relatively future proof, I'd go for it. If you have some savings put aside for this project, I'd be more cautious and worried that inflation and higher cost of living might eat up large portion of it. (Then again, you may decide to some of your stuff but not all of it in which case that's fine I guess). Agree with PP that the situation with builders gets more stable when you consider their availability, but I don't expect prices for labour or materials to go down ever!

*to do some of your stuff but not all of it

Personally, I think it's unlikely that prices will go back down again, although hopefully they will stabilise! I also think that if you try to wait it out, you run the severe risk that costs will actually increase and you'll be priced out of doing the work you want. We've just paid a deposit for our loft conversion and our builder is saying to budget for a 4% increase in costs in the next year alone.

Costs-wise, 2023 & 2024 are going to be eye-wateringly painful on a scale never seen before. I'm really worried.

😮is it gold?!! Seriously that is outrageous!!

My partner's a builder and he says prices are starting to drift down again. V slowly, but it is noticeable.

Thanks so much for your messages everyone. It is a very strong point that inflation is unlikely to allow a substantial fall in prices. However, a fall in demand might reduce pressure and create a 'balance' in the supply and demand chain, which might mean prices at least don't go up substantially. I can hope.

@dancemonke you have given me the news I hoped for, which is great

We won't be in a position to do the work until next year (buying/moving/planning permission/Christmas etc.), and given the rate of inflation, it is going to make sense to do what we can when we can rather than to wait (not that I'm good at waiting anyway). @SummerVibes22 it will be from savings, rather than income, and your point is a strong one.

@NewHouseNewMe we are fortunate that the extension does have suitable walls and foundations. However, there is a small section that doesn't (an older extension), so we will be doing the take it away to put it back up again with that. But luckily, it is very small, so I'm hoping it won't be so bad.

Building costs will never go down, they may slow, but always increase :-)
Maybe get a quote before you commit to buy. We bought a do-er upper. Best decision we ever made. Bought for 500k, spent 500k doing it up including 3 extensions over past decade, and it's now worth around 1.7m. It's our forever home, so not worried about profit, but those margins wouldn't be possible now due to building and house cost rises.

Why on earth are you buying a house that's clearly far too small for you? It will cost far more to do all that than to buy a larger house. It will annoy the neighbours no end if they are close. And you'll be living an in bombsite for years- and I mean years.
We have a doer-upper here, but bar a conservatory, no extensions needed. We're on year 4 and not there yet, and we're able to push jobs on by doing a lot of the prep ourselves. And I'm not houseproud, so having dust and crap and builders and scaffolding and all sorts everywhere I can to a large extent just walk/climb over and ignore.
I very much doubt any decent workmen will be charging any less in future, they are hard to find, and you will have to wait months or more for anyone decent. Many materials costs are set according to international demand, and as other countries are not is the same shite we're in, demand won't be falling, or falling as far, as here, so goods will just be diverted elsewhere rather than getting cheaper here; prices have fallen for some things like timber from the covid high points, but I can't see them falling again much, if at all, if anything, I think they will be going up again.
Our financial advisor is still advising us to get any big works done a.s.a.p., as it will only get more expensive and any money we have saved won't remotely keep up in tems of interest.
If you were just doing a house up as your forever home and didn't mind it costing a bit more than a 'made' house, I'd say fine. But for all that work, I think you will be far worse off than buying a larger house in the first place- and much more disrupted. Do not underestimate the emotional and practical costs of the disruption- it's not just financial.

@Holidayinginmymind we are in planning process of doing exactly what you said you are. Have you started your Reno? We have all the permissions but the builder quotes are eye watering so we’re pausing for a few months to see if interest rates come down on the extra borrowing. Curious to find out how yours is progressing.

We actually decided that we wanted to move instead. The architect we employed wasn’t really doing what we wanted and we decided that it wasn’t worth doing all the work!

I've also got my fingers crossed OP.
Interest rates are still pretty high which is making it expensive to borrow on a loan or remortgage so one would anticipate that this will decrease the demand somewhat. People may decide to wait or scale back their plans. Whether this will trickle down into slightly lower prices, we'll see...

Ooops, have just seen it's an old thread from 2022!
Wonder if they did come down?!

Yeah I’m worried prices will increase once demand returns or we can’t find a builder. Guess it’s a trade off. Rates just so high on borrowing it’s a huge deterrent but I’m so eager to begin renovating. Husband says no we have to wait it out