Is it a good idea to buy now or wait until 2023?

[onthefencesitter]

My flat is on the market and actually I was planning to buy a bigger flat. However, the bigger flat I was looking at is in the process of going under offer. There isn't much on the market?

IF prices fall, is it better to wait until next year. Yes I risk selling lower, but at the same time, hopefully the next step would be lower? Unless of course this means I can't sell at all?

This is in London btw.

It's unlikely that property prices will fall, more likely that the rate at which they increase will slow. Especially in London. Even with how things are going, the latest house price index indicated that prices were up 0.1% in July.

If there's nothing on the market that you like I suggest keeping an eye out and taking the opportunity when there is.

Not really, latest is Halifax house price index down 0.1% for mortgage probably agreed before the recent big hikes. Rightmove also released their asking price I few which was down 3.5% versus last month.

Rightmove, August 2022 -

Price of property coming to the market sees first fall this year, down 1.3% in the month to £365,173 (-£4,795)
Prices usually drop in August, and this 1.3% drop is on a par with the average August drop over the past ten years

www.rightmove.co.uk/press-centre/house-price-index/august-2022/

And 3.5% down for London where OP is looking

its down 4.4 % in my borough!

Anyway if its falling, is it better to wait or to sell at whatever price i can get now and buy? Or is it better to sell next year, sell lower and then buy lower.

If house prices fall some may be reluctant to sell negative equity again. Fewer come to market.

Ah yes, apologies.

Even so, time in the market is more critical than timing the market.

Predicting future property price fluctuations is a notoriously difficult task.

generally if you have decent equity, stable jobs with good income moving up the ladder is easier in a falling market rather than a rising one.

My MIL and parents both bought their current homes in 1996/1998. Both sold their previous homes at a loss. They were in different countries but the same principle applied. MIL upgraded from a 1 bed flat to a terraced house in London, my parents went from a semi detached to a detached during the Asian Financial Crisis. MIL sold her flat for half of what she bought it for, my parents lost maybe 25% ?

same for my parents, inlaws & me

a rising market makes it harder because the gap gets wider but many don't understand that.

www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/reports/annual-house-price-growth-stays-in-double-digits-as-july-sees-twelfth-successive-monthly-increase

its strange because the national obsession with housing prices is because a lot of people are hoping houses would rise in value. But actually unless you are downsizing (which most people on mumsnet would not be), having an expensive house doesn't really help you.

it doesn't or your dc if you have any but I think it makes people feel rich & therefore happy!

We've just got our offer excepted and we went 50k under asking .

Sorry 25k under asking

Buying in a falling market is much easier.

Sad as it is, many people are already maxed out. Come next year when energy prices are hiked again, and interest rates on mortgages for those approaching the end of fixed term plans, many are going to be priced out of affording their homes and may end up in arrears, either forcing a sale, or with homes repossessed.

It's a sad thought, but it's going to happen for some and I suspect there'll be plenty more houses on the market than there are now.

Prices are already falling.
The Halifax data shows a v small fall (0.1%) and Nationwide a v small increase (0.1%) for July 22. This data represents sale prices agreed around March/ April with transactions completed during July. My take home from this data is that prices stagnated in Spring and have been falling (on average) since. This is backed up by the Rightmove data that there has been a reduction in asking prices between July and August with the reduction being greatest in London. Sale prices are likely to be lower than asking prices too. RM will obviously try to put a positive slant on it but, given that interest rates have risen significantly since the start of the year and inflation is very high (particularly for essentials), it's pretty obvious that prices will fall. The likelihood is that prices will fall more significantly in the second half of the year and into 2023.

However, you need to consider your personal situation, how much you need to move, how secure your (and your partner's) job(s) are, how easy your flat may be to sell, what your market is, etc. Generally, as someone else said, it is easier and more cost effective to move up in a downturn.

Even if you have to sell your existing home?

I mean of course if you are a chain free FTB with a lot of equity then yes. But we need to sell our property to buy a new one.

Thanks for the reassurance, my parents and MIL have told me the same but it's contrary to what most people say...

I meant big deposit sorry!

I have been overpaying to try to build up my equity and needed 15% deposit anyway to even buy my current flat.

Also keep an eye on mortgage rates which have increased quite a bit.

@onthefencesitter Sorry, I'm not sure how to quote a quoted post to reply, so I'll copy and paste your comment below because I always find it helpful when reading threads to see the question asked.

Even if you have to sell your existing home?

I mean of course if you are a chain free FTB with a lot of equity then yes. But we need to sell our property to buy a new one.

Thanks for the reassurance, my parents and MIL have told me the same but it's contrary to what most people say...

Ah, I don't know why I thought you'd still go ahead with selling yours this year with a view to buying next year. I guess it's a bit more complicated when in a chain, but there's still the chance of a "bargain" on repossessed homes where banks are wanting to recuperate the costs and there's less focus on a profit, if that makes sense?

But yes, on the whole, I think when not chain free, it's not as straight forward to cash in on.

It's unlikely that property prices will fall

there speaks someone with a very short memory. We are predicted the worst recession in a very long time. Of course property prices could fall.

twitter.com/TeleProperty/status/1559908047593639938?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1559908047593639938%7Ctwgr%5E9f575f636791b4fc1f50dad14a3da228968256e3%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.housepricecrash.co.uk%2Fforum%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FTeleProperty%2Fstatus%2F1559908047593639938%3Fs%3D2026t%3DuVfrGzzkNiBQjVaFjfyA7w

Well if property prices plummet, is it better to sell and buy in 2022 or wait till 2023? That's the question