@Dasheen 'You are talking theoretically. Fact is housing stock is limited. That is the basic fact. Start from there and you’ll see why house prices will always be on a long run trajectory despite blips here and there.
Let’s take your multigenerational example: space is needed for this to be possible, if not least because relationships will break if there isn’t enough living space to house these extra people. Oh but they will do extensions you say? Then what do you think will happen as these multigenerational family demand building works? How will that affect the price of houses?
The economic downturn is not being caused by a housing bubble. House prices will in the short term slow down and in some areas drop but it is completely contrary to historical evidence and to the actual fundamentals in this country to expect house prices will keep falling.
The sad reality is that the inequality in wealth will explode. Those with money will continue to buy houses and some will do so to rent'
I'm not talking theoretically. It's all very practical. I haven't said anything about extensions. There are lots of older people still living in large family houses who have space to house their adult children and grandchildren. I already see this fairly frequently at the poorer end of the spectrum. I am saying it will become more common. People will have to out up with it whether it is ideal or not. It is, in fact, very common in other countries where space is at a premium.
I'm not sure I see landlords hoovering up multiple properties. The government have been deliberately discouraging landlords and reducing their profits for a few years now. Rising interest rates will reduce them further. Rents have risen a lot in the last year and more but if people can't pay them they won't pay. They will presumably end up being evicted and the council will need to house them (in horribly conditions) at tax payer's expense. The rents will need to come down to affordable levels if people can no longer pay.
I can see that you are full persuaded that lack of housing stock is the main factor in creating demand. I am saying that it is not, access to money is.
'In any case, the gas crises will turn a corner from 2024. There will be some positive signs in late 2023 as more LNG becomes available. Yet another situation that’s very much supply driven at the moment'
This is the crux of the current 'crisis' which is not a temporary crisis but a long term trend. Sure the price of gas may come down as demand reduces because consumers cannot afford it. The underlying problem, however, is one of reduced supply and particularly reduced supply at affordable prices.