Anyone noticed the market has changed?

[yaxe]

We are in the process of buying (have sold) & it was mad in March, lots of overbidding etc. I've noticed now reductions & stuff is staying on rather than going in a wk. It's making me a bit nervous tbh.

Something I've noticed on my Rightmove saved properties list is that all the houses marketed before mid June got marked sold STC very quickly. But all the houses I have saved since mid June have not sold. That could just be the time of the year. But it does coincide with the increased interest rates that were announced at the time. These are all houses that are in the middle of the price range for that area. I've noticed the ones at the bottom are still selling very quickly. The area where we're selling is the same. Flats don't seem to be selling at all though.

@oiltrader is right. It is the supply of credit (and general affordability) that is the chief factor with regards house prices.
The banks have become more cautious about lending as affordability declines, people can afford less as the cost of everything else has risen.
As you say, the economic fundamentals are key and the UK economy is in serious trouble and the economic fundamentals all point to a significant reduction in prices regardless of the number of dwellings.

The banks have become more cautious about lending

I was talking to an estate agent the other day and she was saying that banks are tightening up lending, particularly for people working in certain industries. She mentioned the airline industry in particular. I'd imagine the same applies to other industries vulnerable to recession such as hospitality and non essential retail are similar.

Credit only limits what you can buy but not necessarily your buying. Credit determines the size of your demand. Nonetheless demand will always outstrip supply and that is what drives prices. Not credit.

The lenders are tightening up on who they will lend to as well - cautious about lending too much to those working in volatile industries, for example. Lenders seem to be modelling based on upcoming job losses in industries such as hospitality, non essential retail and aviation.

Interest rates going up will also limit how much mortgage applicants can borrow.

One told me on a viewing last week that on the odd occasion something is going to best and finals, the offers that are coming in are only £1000 ish over the asking price. She said nothing is attracting the £30-70k over bids they were getting 6 months ago. And it’s in their interest to control that now (rather than encourage it) because the ones that are falling through are the ones that either people went hugely over asking on, or the ones that need work because building costs are rising exponentially.

This is really interesting. I've seen a few come back on in the last few weeks. I'd assumed it was because of interest rates and bills rising - ie buyers deciding they can no longer afford the purchase.

Gosh, flats really aren't selling are they. I've just done a Rightmove search and they've been sitting there for ages. What's the reason for that? Cladding issues? Lack of demand from landlords? I always think flats make quite good rentals Airbnb's but I may be wrong.

There’s plenty of people with cash in their pockets that can buy houses out right with no need for a mortgage who are waiting to sweep no doubt when there’s the slightest hint of a drop. Mr and Mrs blogs on the street won’t benefit from any reductions or if they do they’ll be minor.

Well no because they’ve done away with the affordability aspect of the process so actually the banks will be piling on the lending for those who were in a position to do so i.e. really good deposits and secure jobs. So the usual story the rich will get richer and the poor will get further and further away from the opportunity of being able to claw their way out of poverty.

Once the BoE raise the rates again, the market will keep on cooling.

We are in for a bumpy & rough few months and it is not going to be pretty 😳

People hanging on by their finger tips at the moment, I have no idea how they will cope with everything going up 😳

Well no because they’ve done away with the affordability aspect of the process so actually the banks will be piling on the lending for those who were in a position to do so i.e. really good deposits and secure jobs.

So lenders are reducing demand by not lending to those without good deposits and secure jobs?

Or inflating the price due to there being less on the market available of the standard that those with good deposits and secure jobs would want to purchase. Stagnation is where we’re heading there’s absolutely no doubt about it nobody will move unless they’re forced to.
The three Ds will still apply of course, but I believe divorce rates go down in a recession due to the fact that people are basically stuck with each other and reliant despite financial pressures etc. Debt will be less of an issue due to previous lending criteria.

so then we are just left with everybody waiting for somebody to die so they can have their house but then of course that creates inheritance which will be used to fuel the market as we saw last year.

Who is hanging on by their fingertips ? I’m off on holidays tomorrow having booked it less than three months ago so not in 2019 which is what is usually suggested and I’m taking five grand spending money we are going to have a great time.

i’m due another bonus in December that I have absolutely no doubt I will receive so there’s five grand to cover Christmas not everyone is on the bones of their arse right now.
As it happens I don’t want to buy a house so that’s irrelevant but.

Bizarre comment. You, as an individual, are not hanging on by your fingertips, so you dismiss the reality that millions actually are?

Bragging about bonuses just makes you look unpleasant.

I’m factually stating that I am not going to be hanging on by my fingertips. I doubt very much I’m the only one, of course SOME people are struggling but you cannot use a broad bush and a sweeping statement to describe “people”.

people have a variety of circumstances and situations.

And 2/3 of people may be in fuel poverty by next year. Your bragging is crass, at best.

@Dasheen 'Credit only limits what you can buy but not necessarily your buying. Credit determines the size of your demand. Nonetheless demand will always outstrip supply and that is what drives prices. Not credit'

I don't understand your post. What do you mean by credit only limits what you can buy but not necessarily your buying?
In the next sentence, do you mean that demand from buyers will always outstrip sellers?
I've already stated that I think credit is what affects demand (ie the main factor) but not sure what you are getting at here.

@RunningSME/ @Nothappyatwork - of course there is doubt as to where we are heading. Even stagnation (what you predict) would mean a real terms fall in prices anyway. You have no idea how many people may or may not need to move for a variety of reasons. Even if it is a very small number of forced sellers, that will lower the prices of everyone's properties. You don't need the entire housing stock to sell, just a small number to reduce all values. And no, wealthy people are unlikely to all pile into a falling market. As @NoWordForFluffy says, your bragging is crass and highly insensitive when many people are struggling.

Sure @RunningSME - all you have is insults when people disagree with you, just like the other poster.

There’s no insults. This whole debating thing is obviously not for you if you feel insulted 🥴

Of course they’re going to pile into a falling market there’s no better time to upsize,

So now you're saying that you think we're heading for a falling market?

Confusion reigns whenever that particular poster appears.