An Irish version of the "house price bores thread

[bran]

Over a year ago I posted this thread about Dublin property prices as we are planning to move back there in a few years. And now that prices seem to be on their way down would anyone like to obsess endlessly with me about how low they might go and when I should be thinking about buying to get the best price? I probably won't spend any less on a house if prices fall, but if they fall 30% or so I would be able to buy a much better property so timing might be important.

I own opinion is that there is the potential for a really big fall in the next year or so. The Irish system of buying a new house and then selling your old house and using a bridging loan to finance them both temporarily must mean that there are quite few sellers out there who absolutely must sell. But on the whole I guess most people will just stay where they are if they are in negative equity. While the economy stays strong I suppose that might keep prices from falling too far, but if the economy slows and people start to move abroad I think the bottom could completely fall out of the market and house prices could go back to where they were a decade or more ago.

Oh well, I'll just obsess on my own then.

When I left Dublin for London (nearly 2 decades ago ) the disparity between the property markets meant that you could expect to sell your small London house/flat and buy a Dublin mansion if you decided to move back. I thought that if I ever moved back I would quite like to buy a house like this or this, although that is clearly out of my range now.

If I had to move back now I would probably buy something like this or this. I like the location of the first one as it's about 5 mins walk to the secondary school that I want ds to attend, but I prefer the style of the second one.

However if property prices are going to drop 20%-30% then I could afford something much smarter like this or this.

If nobody comes to talk to me about property I'm going to have to phone my db (who lives in Dublin and is hoping for prices to come down so he can move from a flat to a house) and obsess with him.

I know, it's a lot isn't it Kerrymum? We have been extremely lucky with the London property market (not skill at all, we just happened to move to unpopular areas that became popular after we moved there). Having kids late in life helped too I think as dh spent a few years doing lucrative foreign contracts which he wouldn't have done if we'd had kids. Again that wasn't judgement, we would have had children younger if we could have.

I'm a little staggered both by how much we will be spending, and how little that much money actually buys.

I think we're going to be reasonably lucky on the school front as we are C of I. As I understand it, if you belong to the parish and are registered on the church rolls then your children have the right to attend the parish primary school (unless the classes are at their maximum size). I know that the primary school in my parent's parish (which is the next parish south of where I want to live) is undersubscribed at the moment, so if necessary ds could go there although it would be about 20-30 mins drive each way.

I've already registered ds for my old secondary school, but again even if I had waited a bit I think it would be ok as although it's a Methodist school they do give preference to children of past pupils and protestants. When my brother started there he was part of a baby boom and the school added an extra class onto his year (from 4 to 5) rather than turn children away.

What limits me most is that dh can't drive, so we have to be near the Luas. Otherwise I will spend my entire life ferrying him around.

Well although I am Irish, I haven't lived there for 18 years and don't have any plans to move back so am completely out of touch on the property market front. DB and various other family all still live there but are mainly farmers or have new-builds in the middle of nowhere so they all seem to be living in enormous old farmhouses or Spanish haciendas which 20 years ago were worth nothing and must now be worth a complete fortune.

However, I was staggered to open your first link to the house on Palmerston Road and realise that it was my late Aunt and Uncle's house which I remember visiting as a child. They moved out years ago when my uncle retired (or maybe before, can't remember) and I'm sure they would be turning in their graves at the 6m Euro price tag now! Must remember to tell my mum ...

Are you planning to send your ds to Wesley?

How fascinating about the house on Palmerston Road. Does it look very different now?

I don't know how much those houses would have been worth before I left Ireland, but I remember thinking as a teenager that the area was attractive and it wouldn't be completely beyond my expectations to live somewhere like that. The owners (at least the ones I knew, parents of friends) were professionals rather than multi-millionaires. I had a couple of friends who lived on Ailsbury Road and I know that even back then that would have been beyond my wildest dreams, 3 houses on that road sold for above 14 million Euro last summer.

Yes, he's going to go to Wesley, it's my old school. Do you know it? I was very happy there, I transferred from Alex because I'm techy and Alex (being an all girls school) wasn't, but I liked it so much I wished I'd been at Wesley for all of secondary school. Although I'm a bit tempted to live on the coast (Monkstown/Sandycove/Dalky) as my brother lives there and my parents are thinking of moving there, in which case it would be too much of a pain to send him across town and I would probably try to get him into Andrew's.

I can only vaguely remember the house on Palmerston Road but yes I think it looked very different then. I remember it being very imposing and rather gloomy with lots of heavy furniture, looks completely different now. My outstanding memory is of sitting in the front room on a rainy day being very bored - and presumably cowed into submission by threats from my mother about my behaviour! My uncle was a GP and a company doctor and Aunt didn't work, doubt that anyone like that could afford one of those houses now, unlesss they had inherited.

My best friend went to Wesley for a bit but transferred to day school but all her brothers and sisters went there, plus various other friends. Also shared a flat with an ex-Wesley and ex-Alex girl for a while. Very envious of you considering Andrews, dh and I spent a while looking at various Irish schools as we were considering sending ds to board. However, ultimately we decided that we couldn't justify sending them to Ireland even considering what good value it was! St Andrew's was my fave school because of IB but of course is only a day school.

IB? (I can only think of irritable bowel, and I doubt that something you look for in an ideal school.)

Any opionions out there from Dubliners about what house prices are going to be doing over the next couple of years? I would ideally like to buy about 12-18 months from now so that I could have any renovations etc done before I move. If prices are going to plummet (sp?) I would consider moving and renting for a year or so before buying, but obviously that would be a bit of a pain in the neck as we would have to move twice.