So will the prices start going down soon?

[Notmyyearthisyear]

Because right now they seem to increase by at the rate of 10% a month!!! Every time I look, and I look every day, I can afford less than the day before 🤣🤣 Surely this cannot continue…

@lastqueenofscotland

They might stagnate. If they do crash, like in 08, lenders just stop lending, so the only people that benefit are cash buyers. I think ALOT of people get left behind by the market waiting for them to come down, and they never do, than end up stuck in negative equity.

I agree. I’ve noted many times before how I sat about in 98 waiting for the crash. It never came.

Property prices have always hit peaks & toughs, I am old enough to remember the crashes in the very early 90’s & 2008.

I can’t see how the rises can continue for the following reasons, the financial squeeze, rising inflation etc.

Many properties are going to bids, all well and good, vendors get a great price, but if the buyer needs a mortgage, at survey/valuation a lot of sales are falling through, the banks will not expose themselves.

The property market has been simulated buy the SDLT freeze, and the ability to borrow money cheaply, that won’t be possible with inflation rising.

Yes I get that property is in demand and it’s a sellers market and trend may continue for part of 2022 but ongoing 2023 & 2024 is anyone’s guess.

Someone on here bored that, in the not too distant future, the boomer generation will start dying or downsizing in larger numbers. I know it seems like a horribly calculating thing to say, but it is true, and this will result in houses at all price levels becoming available at a faster rate

There is nothing suitable for people to downsize to, not everyone wants to sell their large detached family home with a big garden and move to a flat or terrace in an area which they are unfamiliar, that is moving downmarket rather than downsizing, bungalows are relatively hard to come by so people will just adapt their homes to suit and also people stay young and fitter for longer they don’t necessarily have to sell their big houses when they reach retirement age.

@Fretfulmum

There won’t be any stagnation or reduction unless credit becomes expensive. Interest rates are very low , even though they are very slowly rising, it won’t impact house prices. They would have to rise significantly higher to make a dent. Years of quantative easing by the government means that the government can’t afford interest rates to get too high hence why the BoE have maintained low rates. The rising cost of living also won’t affect house prices as most movers are middle class where basic necessities (fuel/food) are a lower % of household income so they can absorb this rise more easily. If you want to buy, now is the best time

Agree.

Until interest rates start increasing house prices will continue to rise.

@AmberLynn1536 it doesn't have to involve moving to an unfamiliar area, and I don't think you can say there's nothing at all for people to downsize to. Some won't, of course, but some will (and ultimately everyone dies, whether they want to or not).

Bottom line - house prices won't continue rising indefinitely in a more or less linear fashion. There will always be booms and crashes, and history suggests that a crash tends to follow a boom. And when (not if) the next crash comes, I'm bloody well going to resurrect this thread so I can say I told you all so

@tinkywinkyshandbag

Government won't want to put interest rates up because I will make servicing the national debt even harder than it is now

The B of E has to put interest rates up to combat inflation, which is its highest in decades. The economists predict interest rates will rise from 0.5 to 1.25% by the end of 2022.

I bought my first house o the late 90s and houses prices have only risen and risen, never in that time gone down. My starter home (I'm on house 4 now) , 2 bed end if terrace new build was bought for £80k in late 90s, sane house is now on market (with added conservatory) for £400k. We are homecounties.

[quote JesusInTheCabbageVan]Article here about the 18 year cycle:

www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-9601221/The-18-year-property-cycle-tips-house-price-boom-crash-2026.html[/quote]
Interesting article.

Just done a little survey on a right move.

brighton £425-450:- 9 out of 48 houses reduced

Cardiff £300-325 - 6 out of 47 houses reduced

(Random prices and towns)

@OddsNSodsBitsNBobs there was a big crash in 2008 - this chart shows them going down. Here's the same data in more detail

I should say though - while there will be at least a dip and ultimately a crash at some point, it won't be for at least a few years and there's no guarantee prices will ever drop lower than they are now.

OP, I think you're at the same point in the cycle as we were when we bought. We bought at the tail end of the last boom, when the market was slowing down but prices were still rising. A lot of people told us we should wait for the crash, and it did come in the end, but we bought just in time to still make a small profit even though we moved up the ladder during a trough.

Also (should go without saying) ignore me talking like I know about it nobody knows. All we can do is extrapolate.

I have a pet theory that house prices will tank when they finally abolish Section 21.

Prices are 30x rents at the moment, and nothing can justify that, except that buying a place is the only practical way of avoiding being made homeless at the whim of a random landlord.

No- what on earth makes you ask that?

No crash but possible stagnation , supply is picking up in my area especially the larger sized homes the crazy priced properties aren't selling they were when the sldt holiday was on. I've seen reductions of 50k and 75k, bidding wars seem to have ended. We were never a bidding war area, it was always negotiating a reduction. I think the boom is over in my area at least.

[quote JesusInTheCabbageVan]@OddsNSodsBitsNBobs there was a big crash in 2008 - this chart shows them going down. Here's the same data in more detail

I should say though - while there will be at least a dip and ultimately a crash at some point, it won't be for at least a few years and there's no guarantee prices will ever drop lower than they are now.

OP, I think you're at the same point in the cycle as we were when we bought. We bought at the tail end of the last boom, when the market was slowing down but prices were still rising. A lot of people told us we should wait for the crash, and it did come in the end, but we bought just in time to still make a small profit even though we moved up the ladder during a trough.[/quote]
Even in the 2008 'crash' property price did not fall in my area. Although I appreciate this wasn't the case in the majority.

If inflation is up 7% and price are flat, they have gone down by that much in real term, I guess same goes for the government enormous debt. After 40 years of downward interest rate cycle, it might be that wages and interest rate are now going in reverse, it certainly is how it looks all around the world this year.

A relative downsized last year after getting to the stage when stairs are difficult - there was very very little on the market in terms of bungalows that were actually practical. As in they were somewhere near shops and/or bus routes for when she can't drive any more. The developments for retired people were really unsuitable - very expensive for the size of accommodation, high service charges, difficulties selling on.

I checked rightmove last night & there were more reductions of between £25k to £75k. The stretch pricing trend is slowly ending & we might see more realistic prices now rather than a crash. My area is definitely a bidding war area & it's slowly changing by going to best & final.

Prices will definitely fall, just can't say when. This is a false market where the current reported increases are based on the extremely low volume of housing that is selling. Try these sites:

UK Property Lion (Twitter) tracks asking prices and volumes on Rightmove.

houseprices.io/?q=ex5+7 - Sold prices and whether they achieved more or less than inflation. Example here shows not to buy into New Build estates. HTB just gave money to Builders - it didn't help buyers.

Generally, inflation, rising interest rates, NI charges in April and energy costs rocketing, will all cause home owners to question the wisdom and viability of their previous choices. Expect more supply soon and price reductions.

@OddsNSodsBitsNBobs ah, apologies, I didn't realise.

@XVGN

Prices will definitely fall, just can't say when. This is a false market where the current reported increases are based on the extremely low volume of housing that is selling. Try these sites:

UK Property Lion (Twitter) tracks asking prices and volumes on Rightmove.

houseprices.io/?q=ex5+7 - Sold prices and whether they achieved more or less than inflation. Example here shows not to buy into New Build estates. HTB just gave money to Builders - it didn't help buyers.

Generally, inflation, rising interest rates, NI charges in April and energy costs rocketing, will all cause home owners to question the wisdom and viability of their previous choices. Expect more supply soon and price reductions.

What is the source of said supply? Do you know about a national program of house building that we don’t? Or are millions of people going to move out of houses into canal boats thereby increasing supply?

I think what XVGN meant by the supply of housing stock increasing soon is that Easter is the traditional time for houses to go on the market. So in around a month more houses will be coming on the market not just new builds.

@OddsNSodsBitsNBobs

I bought my first house o the late 90s and houses prices have only risen and risen, never in that time gone down. My starter home (I'm on house 4 now) , 2 bed end if terrace new build was bought for £80k in late 90s, sane house is now on market (with added conservatory) for £400k. We are homecounties.

Same here but prices DID go down post 2008. We bought our current property in 2011 and got £20k less for our 1st home than it was valued at. The upside was was paid £15k less than asking price on this house so it sort of evened out. The most notable thing for me at the time was how few mortgage products were around to choose from. I think there were 3 in total that we found (prior to 2008 there would have been 100) We are currently in the process of fixing again for 5 years and there are plenty of mortgage products available. I agree with the 18 year cycle idea...post covid it all feels a bit 1920s to me :(

Re: boomers. They will die. They wont be downsizing. So the next 10-15 years will see more larger family homes come onto the market.
None of us love forever!

@Alrightqueenie

I think what XVGN meant by the supply of housing stock increasing soon is that Easter is the traditional time for houses to go on the market. So in around a month more houses will be coming on the market not just new builds.

Yes, and the vital 3 d's - death, debt and divorce. I saw some stat the other day that said 50% of the over 65's die in the following 10 years. That's probably accurate. And unfortunately many people are going to find themselves in debt soon, and stresses will increase divorce.

The thing's like a pressure cooker right now.