I am beginning to think house prices are going to dip.

[Overdon]

I found out this week that banks are pulling their cheapest mortgages (source: Sky business news) due to banks ‘forecasting’ the market.
With interest rates expected to rise due to inflation and the increased energy costs households are facing, I wonder if this could sap confidence in the market.
I am also seeing an increasing number of homes coming back on the market that were previously SSTC.
There is of course still the supply/ demand dynamic, so I don’t think they would crash, but I think the heat is coming out of the market.
Interested to hear your thoughts.

I'd like to know where @KloppsTeeth lives, sounds ideal

@Porfre

Nope still a very hot market here in NW.

Not sure what it will take
But currently cant afford to move house so staying put.

Prices in the NW are rising quickly because of all the business that's followed Media City here. There aren't enough houses for everyone moving up north and as we are getting so many people from the south they have more equity to throw at the problem.

We sold to someone relocating from London and there was a bidding war on my very average house.

@simitra

I can remember the last crash. People who were foolish enough to buy at the top of the market often ended in negative equity.

We bought at the top of the market in 2007. But bought the house we wanted and could afford, lived in it for 8 years and sold it for 100k more than we had bought it for at that point. So although I am guessing we were "foolish enough" to be in negative equity at some point, we only ever saw it as a long term investment (which it was).

Nobody can confidently predict what's round the corner.

Sub prime mortgages caused a banking collapse in 2008 and caught everyone out.

There is always something, but I agree that over the long term, it will almost always rise.

Eek, my ds is considering buying his first flat.

I think his philosophy is that he’d rather be spending on a mortgage than rent.if the flat does drop by £10000, then over two years, that’s probably similar to rent paid, so he’d be no worse off.

Interesting. My mum has just sold and bought. Her first buyers, their mortgage provider rescinded their original mortgage offer so she had to find a buyer all over again. Took her a while to sell and she dropped the price to do so.

I rent and rental prices seem higher, like crazy higher, and there seems to be less rentals available too.

Lots of confirmation bias here!

Lots of really smart economists can't predict the market, so I doubt if randoms on the internet will give you the answer you are looking for.

Handy hint: it's not "supply and demand"

Yes, I think they will. But I don't think it'll make houses easier to buy for anyone.

I rent and rental prices seem higher, like crazy higher, and there seems to be less rentals available too. sad

Same here. Literally nothing is on the market for rent. It’s all for sold within days of going up for sale so landlords are cashing in.
Our contracts not long been renewed but it’s currently about £500 a month under what it would be. That increase has happened in the last three months.
I hope it readjusts down. Or we are fucked.

@MeAndDebbieMcGee

It never was about supply and demand: there are enough residential properties to house everyone. It was about protecting creditors and asset owners from wage/productivity stagnation by circulating tens of billions of top up handouts every year into the spending economy and, when that alone wasn't sufficient, additionally literally printing money. Now all a bit more difficult to sustain as there are the beginnings of discrete wage hike pockets but as these are driven by labour/skills shortages rather than actual growth they will have an inflationary effect.

Supply and demand is a big factor. When you say there are enough residential properties to house everyone, what you are missing is the fact that people don't want to just live anywhere - there is a huge undersupply in places where people actually want to live,

This plays out by the fact you get open days with 20 couples all wanting to buy the same house.

It will be interesting to see how the next few months play out.
There is a very old Yorkshire saying ‘ I couldn’t thoil it ’ which means you may be able to afford something but you don’t think it’s worth the price/ can’t see the value in it. This pretty much sums up most of the property I’ve viewed this year.

@simitra

I can remember the last crash. People who were foolish enough to buy at the top of the market often ended in negative equity.

How were they foolish? They couldn't have known what would happen. Easy to be patronising with the benefit of hindsight.

Besides, it wasn't the top of the market. House prices are now more that double what they were in 1997. Personally, I would much rather have been able to buy then than now. Long term, prices only go up.

I do think prices have levelled out a bit (finally) after the frenzy created by lockdown and the stamp duty holiday. The problem now is just a massive, massive shortage of stock. Housebuilders are all a year behind schedule on new builds and in terms of older housing stock there is literally nothing on the market where I am that is similar to mine AT ALL. There are usually around half a dozen very similar houses within 1/4 of a mile of mile in any direction of my house at any given time but there is literally nothing, and hasn't been for three or four months now.

I think it'd sell mine incredibly quickly if I did put it on the market,. I'm near to a few large employers that people relocate to be near, as well as a uni and a hospital so there is usually a fair bit of activity on the market,, but at the moment it's dead. That's pushing rental costs up as well.

Within reason I could probably name my price. I think it would sell for more than anything in my street has ever sold for before, in spite of needing some updating inside.

I do want to sell but I daren't market mine yet because there is absolutely nothing on the market that I want to buy and I don't want to be pressured to buy the wrong house just to keep my sale.

The last three houses that might have been possibilities for us have sold within a few days and I never even got to view them. It's mad.

@MrsBobDylan I remember you, great you found a 4 bed flat. They are rare. Is it in the town starting with h?

Regarding upsizing, my MIL has told me that is much easier to upsize when prices are down. Have you found this to be true? Did you have a lot of equity every time you upsized?

How were they foolish? They couldn't have known what would happen. Easy to be patronising with the benefit of hindsight

Exactly. I remember there was a poster on here years ago who was constantly predicting a housing market crash and telling everyone how stupid they were to be buying into an unsustainable bubble, while he would sensibly sit it out and scoop up a bargain later.

That must have been at least ten years ago. I wonder how much he's spent on rent since, when he could have made serious equity by now?

Even a stopped watch is right twice a day.

@onlychildhamster you were really helpful on that thread and very kind to me, thank you!

Another flat came up in a different block, dirt cheap. When we viewed, it revealed a fourth bedroom (originally a dining room). They accepted our offer and we are now under offer on our house.

It is in a town beginning with H and I am looking forward in the summer months when I will stroll to the outdoor pool with the kids

The flat is needs a re wire and complete refurb but it is the gateway to a whole new life and easily the most exciting move we've ever made.

@MrsBobDylan I am glad! I try to be supportive of any potential flat dweller because the consensus in the UK is to go for houses (even when it costs more). there can be cladding and lease issues but there are flats without these issues. I sometimes feel doubtful of myself cos the consensus is so strong but ultimately I know a house wouldn't work for my budget even if it is cheaper (on paper) but further out from where I need to be; and I don't think my circumstances are that unusual.

Prices still sky high where we are in the South East, especially if you’re located in a village (semi-rural) with a large high ceiling period house on a large plot and within 15min drive of a direct mainline station into London. We’ve been thinking of selling our house, which fits the above, and have had valuations from two estate agents. Both are confident they could sell it at top price without needing to put it onto Rightmove, just by inviting the potential buyers (all under offer themselves) they have on their books to view it. These are people mainly moving out of London. Both agents have said the market is still pretty crazy, with some buyers paying their sellers a separate amount to move out of their house and into a rental so they can get in quicker(!)

We’re very tempted to sell ours, but like others have said, where would we move to. We’re actually looking at slightly downsizing, but there’s nothing on in the price bracket and location we’re looking at 😏.

Houses aren’t budging here. Very few for sale but all at mad prices and no longer selling quick. I really hope i can get a good mortgage deal in May when mine is up for renewal

Well if they did crash it would be good news for me as I want to move.
It would be a sideways move so if prices crashed I'd get less, pay less and pay less stamp duty and agency fees.

@Kendodd like you are moving to the same kind of house with same number of rooms? I think I want to do a sideways move too - either get a bigger 3 bed flat; or buy the next door flat so should work out better for me if prices crashed.

[quote onlychildhamster]@MrsBobDylan I remember you, great you found a 4 bed flat. They are rare. Is it in the town starting with h?

Regarding upsizing, my MIL has told me that is much easier to upsize when prices are down. Have you found this to be true? Did you have a lot of equity every time you upsized?[/quote]
The gap is easier to bridge if you're trading up when prices are lower, because the gap you're trying to bridge is smaller in absolute terms (i.e, in pounds).

If you're selling and not buying, you want to sell at the top of the curve of prices, also, downsizing, you do that when the prices are higher, because the 'pounds' gap is bigger.

But for most people, there is not a lot of choice about when to jump and buy/sell. For FTBs what's best is also related to how high rents are. It's usually better for them to buy, because rent is money down the drain long term, but in the short term in a rapidly falling market they might save by waiting a bit.