might be from the cistern.
please post photos of
inside the cistern, with the lid off, showing the water level, and how near it is to the line marked "water level" on the back wall, and the fixing screw holes
the overflow pipe coming out of the cistern
the water supply pipe going into the cistern
(these two pipes might be in the side3 or the bottom of the cistern)
the shelf at the back of the pan that the cistern sits on (or, in some cases, the pipe entering the back of the pan)
the soil pipe coming out of the pan, and the connectors it goes into
If you wrap kitchen roll round each of these, you will find that the one wrapped round a leaky joint gets wet.
there is a faint chance of a crack in the porcelain, but this is uncommon.