Wtf is happening to the property market?

[viatheapp]

First time buyer with a decent deposit. Trying to buy a small house in Manchester...every house I've seen has actually sold for about 15k more than it was marketed at!

Obviously I've never bought a house but I assumed they went on the market at a certain price and people usually offered lower? I understand supply and demand etc but why aren't agents putting them on at what they expect to get? It's getting really frustrating 😢

No point me looking at lower price point as I won't get anything in a half decent area for that. Might have to give up!

I think that stamp duty holiday was a big mistake. Nobody saved any money, it just pushed prices up and the extra money ended up in private hands instead of public.

Thanks @Lightscribe- perhaps you are right. Morally wrong though but moral values don't seem to be politicians strong suit!

@Dustyboots

We're in London. Estate agent told us not to sell our house a few days ago ... He said prices will drop (he's certain) and although our small house will drop too, of course - 10% off ours will be less than 10% off what we're trying to buy.

I couldn't believe he was being so honest. Not sure he was, tbh. But he was talking about stamp duty holiday, furlough and mortgage lending coming to an end - it all makes sense.

If you believe that sell now and move in with family or rent for 6 months Unless you are in the 2m plus bracket there's no big drop coming. There is too little decent stock on for that

In my corner of London things aren't selling very quickly. Lots of properties that failed to sell last year are back on the market and going nowhere (I'm on RM every day so I see them come and go!). I think a lot of the time it's down to people having bought at the peak and so having relied on house price growth to build equity and fund the next move, and that's become less reliable.

I remember when we were looking 4ish years ago everything was selling. Absolute s*&tholes were going to open house and then sealed bids that afternoon. I think the cladding scandal plus covid - a small flat without a garden doesn't appeal with memories of lockdown so fresh - has also really jammed things up.

I think the gov't is reckless to prop things up the way they are; they are delaying the inevitable.

Oh I feel your pain! I was hunting for my first house in North Leeds last summer. This was before the stamp duty holiday and the market was crazy then, with multiple offers on houses before I got the chance to view. It was incredibly stressful, I didn't feel like I had enough time to make a proper decision after viewing places, and I lost the first house that I loved to 'best and final offer' despite offering a fair amount over asking. I eventually bought in July and am so glad that I did, although at the time, I was really worried about whether I was doing the right thing or whether I should wait.

As a FTB, I wouldn't have benefitted from the stamp duty holiday and mortgage rates suddenly shot up (by over 1%) when that was introduced (although I think they've now gone down again, at least a bit). Also, working on the house has allowed me to use my lockdown time effectively and I've managed to pay close to 10k off mortgage that I would have otherwise spent on rent. The house I'm in now is much nicer than the one I was renting too, with more space and a garden that I didn't have before, so I feel much happier now.

I guess what I'm saying is don't give up!! It's so worth it when you finally get your own place. Also, don't try to second guess the market. Nobody knows what will happen to prices, they could dip, but they could just as easily rise further out of reach, particularly if Londoners working from home decide to move up north for cheaper housing. Also, if prices do dip, it will almost certainly be because interest rates have gone up, so unless you're a cash buyer it won't help much. Fix the mortgage for a least 5 years would be my advice. Good luck!

I don’t know about the market in Manchester but we bought in the SE in 2014 and it was the same. We viewed 4 2 bedroom houses including the one we eventually bought. They were on the market for between £185k and £200k - all 4 sold for £210k. There wasn’t even any point offering under the asking price at that point it was just offering your best offer and hoping someone else didn’t better it!

I think there's pent up demand too. And many (lucky) people have actually saved money during the pandemic. Who knows what they might spend it on. Weirdly I think things could get worse, OP

My parents lost 6 houses in Weymouth due to Londoners buying without seeing and offering way over asking. One house my parents really wanted so, having lost 5 already went in at £20k over... someone else offered £100000 over asking price. Totally nuts.

@Dustyboots

We're in London. Estate agent told us not to sell our house a few days ago ... He said prices will drop (he's certain) and although our small house will drop too, of course - 10% off ours will be less than 10% off what we're trying to buy.

I couldn't believe he was being so honest. Not sure he was, tbh. But he was talking about stamp duty holiday, furlough and mortgage lending coming to an end - it all makes sense.

If house prices do drop by 10% then surely the majority of people who don't need to move for work, divorce etc will just stay put for a few years and there will be less on the market. I'd say if you want to move then get the ball rolling now, rather than wait for a indeterminate future date when prices may or may not drop. Your estate agent isn't mystic Meg so I'd take that advice with a big pinch of salt!

@scentedgeranium

I think there's pent up demand too. And many (lucky) people have actually saved money during the pandemic. Who knows what they might spend it on. Weirdly I think things could get worse, OP

Yes exactly. Myself and a number of friends have just moved because we have saved enough money during the pandemic, and because working at home longer term means we needed a bigger house. Stamp duty was a nice bonus but really we would have moved regardless. Stamp duty alone isn't driving this rise, people needing to re-assess their living spaces and being able to save large amounts because of the pandemic are.

If the market's going well, people offer above - and it is going well as, while lots of people have obviously fared badly in the last year, by and large the 'property owning classes' who either own or have parents who own are doing OK, in jobs that can be done remotely and still functioning during COVID. So they're keeping on buying. I still think they may be hit by the aftermath, but for now the housing market's participants are still doing OK to downright well. And many are relocating because a lot of white collar jobs are getting more willing to allow people to WFH on a permanent basis, as it gives them access to 'talent' from wherever. Lots of younger folk moving out of London, which is unsustainably expensive even for decently paid starting roles.

Thanks @gorillasinthemist & @Lightscribe, your posts are very informative - and scary.

We are in a shit situation too. We offered on a house exactly a year ago, just before the first lockdown. With all the delays from that we waited for months then it fell through in October - vendor just wihthdrew at the fucking last minute, still bitter about that . There were other contenders at the time which of course were snapped up in that time.

Since then, prices have gone stupid here with people moving out of the local city and from the South for a larger house with a garden, and everything sells within hours or a couple of days. To the point where it looks like we have missed the boat and won't be able to afford the move.

Doubly shit, because we were originally moving because we wanted a spare room for family guests in a nicer area within our town, and now we need that extra room as an office as DH is now working from home indefinitely. So now we are stuck in the shit(ish) area and we are crammed in .