Forest hill or Crystal Palace?? Is London property risky?

[Dreambow]

Hi,
We are searching for a family home in south east London. We love areas like Balham, dulwich, Blackheath and Greenwich but can’t afford there. We have looked in forest hill and worried about how quiet it is on the high st and reports that the Dartmouth Arms pub is closing etc. Have only recently viewed in Crystal Palace so very new to us.
What do you think of forest hill vs Crystal Palace? Which area has more potential?

We are also worried about London properties falling in general as we would like to stay in London for 5 years and then move out and would hate to be in negative equity. Really open to any advice? Thank you so much

needs work but off street parking

www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-88380668.html

www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-95358908.html

Where do you plan to move after five years? I ask because, honestly, five years is a blink of an eye especially once you have children, and I wouldn’t buy a house right now just for five years. It’s going to cost you near enough £100k to move once you include stamp duty, legal fees, moving costs etc. I think you either buy a ten year house now or, with such a healthy budget, have you considered making the 2025 move now?

The housing market in London will only ever have a small adjustment but it is a free market and there is a lot of foreign money invested in London.
People get inheritance money and that normally stays in the housing market so that is why it can sustain the ups and downs. There is still a lot of demand in London.
But with your budget, you can buy in Greenwich and Blackheath and Balham

[quote binkydinky]needs work but off street parking

www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-88380668.html[/quote]
That needs so much work though! Its also in a dead zone near a big charmless estate.

It's fine, I know the road & it's not too far from an outstanding primary although you will have to rent opposite initially!

Oh & "charmless estates" as you put it are often very close to naice roads however the OP may not mind being close to poor people..

@binkydinky my issue with the estate is not poor people. Its charmless. Heavily in private landlord control & rented out at extortionate prices to "young professionals". Being opposite a school doesn't stop it from being in a dead zone, a bit too far from everything.

Why so touchy? Is it your house?

What do you plan for after 5 years?

The reason I ask is I now have 2 DCs in primary and while my house and area is great for now I regret having to move again in a few years, wasting all that stamp duty etc. The reason? I didnt think about secondary schools.

I'm touchy because I replied to your post? Do you live in one of the areas posters have told the OP to ignore & wish you could afford SW12? 😆

It's a 7min walk or so to the high street & yes I do know the estate.

East Dulwich is nice and has great primary schools. Not so good for secondaries.

@binkydinky I know that road & it's a nice road & good size house for Balham but yes needs work.

Tbh OP I think most areas of SW & probably SE have peaked, prices pretty stagnate over the last few yrs. I too am surprised how you made so much in Colliers W. Moving in 5 yrs will surely cost you a lot & who knows what increased remote working will do. Everyone I know in Wandsworth seems to want to move out. We would have done this too for secondary school but may just do it in the next 6-12 months.

Thanks so much for all the suggestions.
We got lucky buying a house in Colliers Wood in 2014 and adding a loft conversion and other changes and selling for just under double what we paid (no family help). Obviously we did put money into the house but got that back including more. We also saved over the last few years. I think we were just super lucky at the time. The flats in Colliers Wood were selling very quickly in 2014 but houses were lagging so made use of that at the time. I also love doing up houses so found it fun!

I think hazelwong mentioned staying in a terrace house in Balham/ Dulwich vs an amazing cool family house in somewhere like forest hill/ streatham which may have more potential (but could be kidding myself). These are just ones I found online:

Canonbie Road, Forest Hill
www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-96032735.html

Wood Vale, Forest Hill, SE23
www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-71123262.html

Would you go for smaller house in a well established area vs a big house in a more risky (but could have more potential) area?

If I was looking to make a profit I would buy in Lewisham. Big houses are cheap and the tube is headed out this way. If you're t about primary schools most of them are good; secondary it depends if you have boys, girls, or a mixture.

I do agree that house prices are insane and the market is due a re-correction. I did think this would happen over the next year given furlough ending/ coronavirus/ Brexit/ working from home becoming norm but house prices seem to be still rising which is crazy. I hope they fall but I think they will stay up until stamp duty ends and it wouldn’t surprise me if the stamp duty was extended along with furlough.

We want to leave in 5 years time as would like to move to the country or go abroad but don’t want to be tied down to a house.
Thanks again for all your advice

Thanks re Lewisham- do you think there is a chance that TFL won’t extend the tube anymore as they are broke?

That's a good return on CW & probably quite unusual. Who knows what interest rates will be in like in 5 yrs time. I guess it depends whether you need a big mortgage (I'm assuming you're high earners) & could take a hit.

@Dreambow

Thanks re Lewisham- do you think there is a chance that TFL won’t extend the tube anymore as they are broke?

There's a chance of course. But there has been a lot of money invested in Lewisham of late and one thing you can count on with a Tory gvt is they like to keep their investors sweet.

But of course there are no guarantees about anything, especially at the moment. 5 years is not long really. The only thing is that Lewisham is quite shit and concrete things are happening (literally!) to improve it. I'm talking financially; I quite like it as it is.

OP, Canonbie road is lovely and really established. Very close to the Horniman and amazing views over London. You would be in the catchment for Fairlawn, which is one of the most sought after primary schools in the area.

Would you go for smaller house in a well established area vs a big house in a more risky (but could have more potential) area?

Pre Covid the latter as big houses have more scope & areas tended to gentrify however now when you can get a big house & bigger garden in outer zones/home counties for a lot less & not have to travel so much or naice areas already have established high streets I've honestly got no idea.

do you think there is a chance that TFL won’t extend the tube anymore as they are broke?

fares will be going up & probably council tax

Lewisham has very good transport links already, with frequent overground trains to London and the DLR. Parts of Lewisham are lovely, parts are not so lovely and there is a huge amount of high rise building going on in the centre, but I love living here!

I live in Forest Hill & love it. There are little businesses popping up - some great restaurants nearby. Honor Oak is lovely too. There are some lovely parks and green spaces. I would say if you are buying a family home then risk is slightly irrelevant if you plan to stay there.

Trolly can I ask where you are considering of moving to for secondary schools?

I cannot decide whether to stay put or not, and I am obsessively thinking about this move for secondary schools.

Would you go for smaller house in a well established area vs a big house in a more risky (but could have more potential) area?

It's difficult to tell now what will happen to the London market post covid AND post Brexit. But I guess that with many, many people wanting to move further out to the country (as indeed you do in 5 years time) the boom time may be over in the longer term. Also the lack of foreign buyers will play a hand in it all as well.

I can see a point where market towns and larger villages with lots of amenities are going to become more and more popular - those with good transport links back into London (say an hour or so) for those who can work from home in nice surroundings but will only have to go into the office perhaps twice a week. Apparently there is an increase of over 125% of people looking at such places. This I think will inevitably stop the over heated London market from over heating any more. So could have a bearing on some of the lesser expensive areas.