To everyone who said the housing market would crash by June.

[BridgettJ]

LOL.

Its gone through the ROOF!

The markets seem to be very localised. It’s roaring away here - an hour from King’s Cross, pretty riverside location, good schools. The house opposite had languished on the market for months, it went for asking during lockdown - bet the buyer was gutted when the stamp duty holiday was announced. Properties are being bought by people selling London flats so I guess that market’s less buoyant.

Properties are being bought by people selling London flats so I guess that market’s less buoyant.

Were these people always going to leave London? We would consider it but need to see the lay of the land as neither of us will be working remotely every single day & transport costs are likely to rocket.

And I assume people selling London flats and moving out are still selling their London flats to someone?

@roary15

And I assume people selling London flats and moving out are still selling their London flats to someone?

Of course they are but supply and demand dictates price. Obviously the more there are on the market, the more price will be depressed.

The prices in my area of London are pretty stagnant. Things still selling but not much change in price over the last few yrs.

Well my Rightmove alerts seem to be full of price reductions ratherctgan lots of new properties.

Must depend on location.

Tbh, I can't see it will continue to boom when Furlough drops off and redundancy consultations are completed over the next few months.

High unemployment never does much for the property market. As a nation we are still in the lull before mass unemployment hits. Lots have already been hit but the big hit his yet to come.

High unemployment never does much for the property market.

That's my thinking

It’s still in the future, though. We seem to be in a very time limited bubble at the moment. Where I live it’s a combination of people anticipating largely working from home in future, desperate to live somewhere green after lockdown and prices that look insanely cheap compared with London. Add in the stamp duty holiday and there you are. It won’t last but it’s definitely a sellers’ market right now.

My main concern is in 2 yrs time my 1-2 days train fare will cost what 4-5 did this yr.

Im lucky to live next to a common & have a garden but I can see the appeal if your in a flat.

We’re near Edinburgh in East Lothian, and the market is absolutely red hot just now. We put our house on the market last Friday, had our first viewing booked within 2 mins, had an offer £50k over the asking price on Monday at 9am from a cash buyer and are going to a closing date next week with 6 notes of interest and a further 18 viewings to go so far. Bearing in mind that it’s Scotland and the survey is available for all to view, so there’s no renegotiation after the offer. I’ve never seen it so busy and neither have our agents.

@roary15 to be fair, it may very well do. Public transport (including rail) requires a large number of commuters to be commercially viable and the cost of rail (unlike tube) is disproportionately footed by the consumer.

At least in London (zone 3), my backup plan if transport costs skyrocket is for DH to cycle to work (40 mins) . I will take the tube and maybe walk/cycle locally. That way, even if the zone 1-3 season ticket becomes £300, its still the same cost for us.

House market is super super hot at the moment in my area (west midland). It seems all nice houses even priced a bit higher compared with Feb, January, they all go STC in several days.. It's a bit mad like you pick up stuff from primark without thinking & careful consideration. I can't see any sign of bad effect of economy recession.

Just don't know how long this situation will last for? After October when furlough ends or March 2021 when STC cut ends?

@Fourfurrymonsters same experience for us - we're selling in Edinburgh and buying in East Lothian. We had 2 offers within 6 days (and we went live on Friday afternoon so first viewings weren't until the Tuesday!)

Several properties we'd been watching during lockdown went off the market within days of viewings resuming and almost everything on my ESPC watch list has gone under offer within a couple of weeks. Lots not going to closing date either. There are a few things which are sitting, but not much.

It almost certainly is a post covid bubble with pent up demand coming out, but it's crazy nonetheless

I don't remember seeing any posts suggesting that the market would crash in June @BridgettJ. Perhaps you could link to these threads.
The furlough scheme doesn't end until October/ November and the chancellor has now brought in the stamp duty holiday to prop things up for a bit longer.
Nice looking houses here seem to be going to SSTC very quickly here, others hanging on and some reductions.
I expect things to cool significantly later in the year and price drops next year. Anything else defies logic given that so many people are being made redundant and many self employed have massively reduced takings or can't renew contracts. I have friends/ acquaintances in several sectors that are in or likely to be in very difficult situations. It's a terrible outlook for them and many others. The banks have also withdrawn higher LTV products so borrowing is overall harder.

I think that property threads have always contained doom and gloom posts. People with no price rises on property and finding it impossible to sell. There is usually a good reason though. London property is fickle and many people do want to be close to work and social life, such as it is. Not everyone has dc and not everyone wants to leave friends and start again. Plenty of London schools are excellent and people do like what London offers and don’t want to commute. Until recently you could hardly open a newspaper without commuters having to put up with all that entails. However if commuting has now vanished, some might see that moving is a good idea. But it’s not everyone and I think the shake up will come in October, as many are predicting. This is about government policy. Unemployment usually causes price reductions as fewer will be buying.

Posters cannot have failed to notice that Lloyd’s Bsnk made a thumping loss recently. Set aside for bad debts being a big factor in this. Lending to companies and the self employed and home owners who will default. The criteria for loans will be tight and this will slow the market down. Other banks won’t be exempt either.

Nobody said it would crash in June? When I see house sales in numbers rather than sold signs I’ll feel more confident. Lots of places selling then mortgages companies valuing them down

Exactly. That’s a big danger and mortgage restrictions including lending due to job insecurities and insufficient deposit. A quick injection of housing supply might help but it rarely happens. The government is helping retail convert to housing quicker now and John Lewis have suggested they might do this with their property. However planning applications are stuck with tardy planning authorities so don’t expect anything soon.

Prices seem to dropping slightly here.

The odd new thing in thecmarjet but no loads. Rightmove seems full of Reduced properties in my area.

I don't think houses prices will significant drop or the market crash until.Furlough ends and employers start binning off their staff. I think it will be the end of this year well notice a more significant change, when sadly there will higher job losses.

I’ve been on MN in various guises since 2013. There has always been a consistently vocal faction on this board confidently predicting an imminent property crash. Does anyone remember professional agent of gloom Roneik? He got himself banned in the end.

A house in my street has 'sold' three times in four weeks. People can't get mortgages

Shouldn’t the agents check those viewing can get a mortgage before they even show them around a potential house.

I heard the agent showing around our neighbours saying they will only show to those proceedable

@OverTheRainbow88 most people have mortgage in principles when viewing, and need to be proved on offer, but a mortgage in principle is not a mortgage offer, in June only 50% were successfully progressed to offers. Agents can't predict that.

Mortgage providers have definitely tightened up. Mine went through fine but broker said anyone on furlough was struggling (not surprisingly), and that the banks were just being more cautious in general