Are prices shooting up where you are?

[Focusanddetermination]

Just that really. I'm in a small Midlands town, have a high amount of activity and prices shooting up in the past few weeks even.

I thought people would be more hesitant with a looming recession, but it's almost the opposite.

Yes, South West city. House went on the market on Monday, a bazillion enquiries on Tuesday, a very high cash offer on Wednesday. Now to find somewhere to buy ourselves...

I think people are dillusional thinking house prices will fall while central banks are printing so much money.

Cash is trash, borrow as much as possible to buy now else you're probably going to never get another chance.

I remember people saying I was crazy for spending 300k on a property in east London. It's worth 1.3-1.2 million now.

I am also really surprised how much cheaper flats can be versus a house. But they might also fall harder come recession.

We are currently debating the proposition of a forever home at the top end of our budget, a much much more affordable house for now (secondary schools arent great) or a smallish two-bed flat mortgage free...

At the start of 2020 I knew exactly what to do - the slightly expensive forever house.....now....it's very confusing - how much will prices drop, will I have my job this time next year..lots to risk assess. But this is London where property prices are crazy in every way

@marysuzairn there was a reason for this- 3 million people moved to London from the 1990s to 2020. Yes there were people leaving every year for cheaper housing but overall there were inflows from Europe and also the depressed north where there are fewer suitable jobs for graduates. Something like 1 in 3 or 1 in 5 graduate jobs were based in London, so many people had little choice in the matter if they wanted a job in their sector. More people= higher property prices.

This is going to change with work from home. I think a lot of people would still stay in London as the city has a lot to offer and for many BAME communities, this is home and its not that easy to find a substitute. But I would expect population to stay stable or decline slightly. Yet I don't think everywhere outside London would increase in value as we are in the worst recession in 300 years. From what I can see, a lot of companies are folding and this would affect some towns more than others, particularly if the local economy was dependent on retail/1 big employer.

Overall prices would drop. But I don't think that 800K house in Finchley is going to be 400K in 18 months somehow. Maybe 600-700K and I still can't afford that. I would probably have saved 100K by buying my flat in 2022 instead of 2019, but I would be 30 by then and that would delay my childbearing. I would also have 3 years of paying down the mortgage by then.

Its all very personal but if I could delay, I definitely would. Many people can't.

@Greenhats10 they can fall harder but if you have more equity in it, does it really matter? The people really hit hard are those with little equity, thats why banks don't want to lend more than 90% for good reason.

Lower mortgage is better during a recession. You can save more and have more of a cushion. Given that this is to live in and not to invest.

[quote Desiringonlychild]@marysuzairn there was a reason for this- 3 million people moved to London from the 1990s to 2020. Yes there were people leaving every year for cheaper housing but overall there were inflows from Europe and also the depressed north where there are fewer suitable jobs for graduates. Something like 1 in 3 or 1 in 5 graduate jobs were based in London, so many people had little choice in the matter if they wanted a job in their sector. More people= higher property prices.

This is going to change with work from home. I think a lot of people would still stay in London as the city has a lot to offer and for many BAME communities, this is home and its not that easy to find a substitute. But I would expect population to stay stable or decline slightly. Yet I don't think everywhere outside London would increase in value as we are in the worst recession in 300 years. From what I can see, a lot of companies are folding and this would affect some towns more than others, particularly if the local economy was dependent on retail/1 big employer.

Overall prices would drop. But I don't think that 800K house in Finchley is going to be 400K in 18 months somehow. Maybe 600-700K and I still can't afford that. I would probably have saved 100K by buying my flat in 2022 instead of 2019, but I would be 30 by then and that would delay my childbearing. I would also have 3 years of paying down the mortgage by then.

Its all very personal but if I could delay, I definitely would. Many people can't.[/quote]
I really don't think wtf will affect London much. All the jobs are here, people may start working 1 or two days a week but will still need to go into the office.

Everything is centered in London, once you live there and get used to how much it has to offer it's hard to live elsewhere.

I remember people saying in 2003 how prices were going to fall. Instead they've gone up 5 fold. Interest rates won't be rising and house prices won't fall any more than a slight dip that's eroded by inflation very quickly. Buying bricks is the best decision I ever made.

@Desiringonlychild and the other thing to consider is how many people will be after that 600-700k house in Finchley... I could afford it at that price but so would @thequantofmontecarlo and many others.There is the fear that any drop in prices in desirable areas might be contracted by increased demand. E.g. my ideal place would be a large flat in say Muswell Hill/Crouch end at 550-600 (they are currently on at 700k) -but last time I tried to bid on an underpriced flat like that it went way over the asking price -around 100k over. Buying a place is not just about prices but also the competition....we'd be competing with city kids on 100k each ...will they all disappear in 18months time?

@ComtesseDeSpair "This is why you can meet Londoners who don’t think of a £100k salary as being a high-earner, because many people on that salary won’t have the trappings usually associated with being well-off. As this thread has demonstrated, we have a man in his thirties who claims to be a very high earner with the ability to raise a mortgage of three quarters of a million; yet is looking to buy a very average house in a very average London suburb because that’s all he can afford. And he can afford more than most his age! That’s why Londoners are obsessed with “the ladder”, you have to start off with whatever you can afford, and pray your investment makes you enough money so your next place can be something big enough to raise a family in (if that’s what you want.)"

Who are you referring to in that comment? Are you referring to @thequantofmontecarlo? If so, then FYI that poster has stated "Btw - You keep referring to me as a “he”. I’m a woman".

@Greenhats10 I don't think the people on 100K salaries would disappear. But they may be interested in more expensive areas not just in London but outside London which would also have dropped. I think people often forget that there are a lot of places outside London which are more expensive, particularly if you take into account commute fares (even on a biweekly basis). Average price of a home in Beaconsfield is £1 million. You can't find much in Radlett under a million.

This might leave the houses in Finchley Central/Woodside Park for you. Not sure about Muswell Hill, that place has been overpriced for decades. I am a 30 min walk away and nearer to the tube, but Muswell Hill is so much more expensive. It is very beautiful though.

@marysuzairn but you do have to take into account interest rate changes - that's a major reason why prices went up. Interest rates are currently at their lowest (possible - we might go Japan but probably not for long).

My parents have also made loads of money on their house in the centre - and it's been great for them but probably wont be possible for us.

Something to consider is however the potential inheritance windfall that might start to filter down for those whose relatives live in London.. If this wealth does start to get filtered down, it will make quite a big difference to those living in London with relatives in London - and lock anyone else out. Thats a long term process but one which might help to stabilise London prices.

@ChocoTrio - I don’t think it makes any difference what the sex if the poster is but was sure at some point in the thread they referred to themselves as a “boy” so went with that. It may have been a typo, which would make sense as other posters seem to also think poster is male.

@Desiringonlychild - agreed but I can already afford what I want in those areas i.e. a two-bed flat.....what I really want are the other areas....which again is down to personal choice (circumstances etc.)

The main point was just that other people might also swoop in and we'd end up with crazy sealed bids and things going back up again

@ComtesseDeSpair - as has been repeatedly demonstrated the ladder is dead in London unless you get lucky with the area, dont mind constantly moving around etc...the rungs are just too far apart at this point. Yes, if you work in certain types of jobs you might go from earning 50k to 150k over your lifetime but thats just not the case for most people. Am in my 40s now and whilst I will certainly keep getting payrises, they wont be high enough for me to jump from one rung to the other.

but this might change if things drop back down again - as @thequantofmontecarlo has demonstrated as prices drop more people should be able to go from one rung to the next.

but without that - as the FT has shown ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/01/15/1547553451000/Why-the-housing-ladder-doesn-t-exist-anymore/ you might end up stuck somewhere along the line - hopefully not in the two-bed flat (though if it's a nice one, i'd be ok with that) but probably in the next place up from that whichever one you pick

No! It's static here, within 15 miles of our house but there are some mitigating factors.
We have had a local boom, our house value has increased 40% + in the past 4/5 years.
We became a found area that people from the South East suddenly flocked to, pushing up prices. We're probably due a regional correction.

The majority of longer term residents are elderly so many people, potential buyers and sellers are still in semi if not full lockdown. So few new houses on the market.

Most EAs here are still closed or working shorter hours.

Things may pick up as those still locked down re-emerge. 🤷🏼‍♀️ I can't call it.

marysuzaim well you did buy at the best possible time, it's not going to go up that much now, and the exodus to suburbs / commuter towns is happening, people want gardens /morespace when working from home, and they can still come up ti London easily. I've seen that in papers already and there will be statts soon available no doubt. Even here on Mn lots of threads about moving out.

@marysuzairn

I think people are dillusional thinking house prices will fall while central banks are printing so much money.

Cash is trash, borrow as much as possible to buy now else you're probably going to never get another chance.

I remember people saying I was crazy for spending 300k on a property in east London. It's worth 1.3-1.2 million now.

I know a few estate agents in London, and trust me they are secretly bricking it.

There is absolutely no parallels in history to what is happening now, people are shunning the capital to move to the home counties and beyond. Foreign buyers are pulling out of London and many housing chains have already fallen though. London also has a higher proportion of it's workers in the Leisure & Tourism sector which will be decimated when the furlough scheme comes to an end.

I have to disagree, I feel London will probably feel an extra 10 basis points drop than anywhere else. I don't expect house prices to halve but I estimate London to drop 25%-30% whereas other parts of the UK 15%-20%

If I owned property in London now, I'd be either going into rented or moving outside. I own a property portfolio so I'd much rather this wasn't the case, but an inconvenient truth is still a truth......

@Barrychuckle2 This is actually very good for people who own property in London and wish to upsize but not in negative equity. In the 90s, my MIL's first flat in zone 3 london was 50K and a house was £100k. Upsizing was possible then, though still not easy. But now it is really really hard cos the 50K flat is now £400k or more and the house is £800k or a million. So still double but so much harder to come up with an extra £400k.

Not so great for investors.

Anecdotal but several edinburgh estate agents told me they're getting more interest than usual from London buyers looking to move up and work remotely most of the time. One of our offers was a buyer in this category too.

It's pathetic but I find threads like this really upsetting. Our flat (london, 2 beds, no garden)went on just before lockdown and isnt selling. We were so desperate to move, we have a baby on the way and we are now stuck here

I feel so jealous of everyone in a house with garden. I cant actually watch things like location location location any more

People have been saying this about London for ages. It never happens though in the 20+ years I've been watching the London property market like a hawk.

It sounds nice to have a London wage outside of the city but it's wishful thinking on their part. The whole world is attracted to London to work for a reason.

One of my properties got let a few days after going on the market. I was expecting a void of at least a few weeks, but no it's been snapped up.

@BakedBlossoms property in London takes time to shift. Also really hard to buy. I was actively trying to buy for over a year and somehow everything fell through.

But it wouldn't be forever and apartment living for families is really common outside the UK.

@marysuzairn "I really don't think wtf will affect London much. All the jobs are here, people may start working 1 or two days a week but will still need to go into the office."

They will, but when you only need to go into the office once a week, who cares about being 30mins from the office? Move 1.5hrs out, have a big house with garden & home office, be happy. All the areas of London that are expensive 'by virtue of having a small commute', rather than actually having anything going for them (which is pretty much everywhere outside Z1/2) are screwed.

Mass structural changes are in process in all the huge professional services firms - there is no going back.

@marysuzairn remote working never used to be so common. Now because of covid, 50% of the population is wfh. A sizeable percentage would stay that way. Granted, they are now competing with the rest of the world. I mean, if you can hire a remote worker in England, why not hire them cheaper in eastern Europe and India. They are probably just as capable and way cheaper.

@BakedBlossoms - am sure you'll get an offer soon!!!! And honestly, in a month or so you won't care that you don't have a garden when it's cold and dark outside. We went into rentals last year and it would have been lovely to have a garden but honestly, babies really dont need one (toddlers and older kids maybe).

And as others have said - in some ways assuming that you dont get in negative equity lower prices are good for everyone!!!!!

I don't think everywhere is going to switch to remote working. Plenty of places still think it's not feasible to do on a long term basis.

DH reckons he might get 1 or 2 days WFH after all this is over, but that's it.