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Original poster

Buying now with potential house price crash (BoE)

117 replies

BoEbrexit · 05/08/2018 10:11

I'm reposting this from the Brexit forum, because I just got answers there about prices falling by 90%, or denials that anything will change at all. I hope this is ok. (I don't know all the etiquette here).

Anyway, I'm a FTB and just saw the BoE stuff about being prepared for property price drop by up to 33% and massive interest rate rises. (I've searched and searched, and I can't actually find any proper projections of what effect No Deal would have no house prices.)

I already knew that now is not the best time to buy, but I'm moving to a new area, and I might not be able to get a mortgage in a year or two due to work situation. I may move after four years or so, and was prepared for the fact I might sell at the same price, or even up to 10% less...but one third less would be pretty destroying ! I'm unlikely to go into negative equity proper because of my large deposit, but I don't want to lose all of that when I sell.

My parents don't seen phased, saying I could just rent out and move into rented if prices go down, like they did in the nineties. Because my job means moving around a lot, it maybe some years before I permanently settle somewhere and want to buy forever home.

I think I'd wait, but I have this issue with potentially not being about to get a mortgage later. (I have a fixed term contract on top of my normal work starting soon, and my normal work isn't enough to get a mortgage.)

But still, is it crazy to buy now?

OP posts:
batshitbetty · 05/08/2018 16:53

MNers here will use all means in their armoury to shout them down, ridicule them, discredit them, isolate them, silence them, and drive them out if they do not shut up, because dissenting voices threaten strongly held vested interests.

No one would have an issue with those links being posted, if you didn't blatantly lie misinterpret the contents to suit your own narrative. If you are so convinced you are right, post the truth without your spin and let people make up their own mind

Original poster
BoEbrexit · 05/08/2018 17:00

@Sophie

Changes the Tories have made on stamp duty and landlord regulations have already slowed house price growth in particular areas. Again, that's very different to engineering a house price crash across the country which would be bizarre.

You sound a bit crazy to be honest.

I'm anti house price inflation - I don't think people should expect to make a profit off property. And some areas are due a correction. The stagnation now is readdressing the balance - everyone I know buying for the first time has brought this year. I think that's good.

But a crash in house prices is not desirable either. Prices should be relatively stable. I'm only worried/ posting on here because of No Deal Brexit talk.

OP posts:
glintandglide · 05/08/2018 17:06

OP I forgot to say, in your case I would absolutely buy because it’s cheaper than renting and you have to live somewhere. In a recession you have to live somewhere. Better your house than someone else’s

I last bought in 2013 and people were saying there would be a disastrous house crash then. Since then the house has increased in value by 40%. The people who waited are priced out now

FabulousSophie · 05/08/2018 17:14

@BoEbrexit

"Again, that's very different to engineering a house price crash across the country" - these are your words, and nowhere in the article or what I have said is anything like this mentioned.

You are calling me crazy for saying something that you are completely fabricating. You are trying to silence me or drive me out by making things up about me.

FabulousSophie · 05/08/2018 17:21

I will continue to post news stories that are negative about the housing market, even though I know a lot of MNers will hate me for it.

NeverTwerkNaked · 05/08/2018 17:28

Have you got a vested interest in driving prices down sophie ? Because I work in the residential property industry and the mood is cautiously optimistic, there’s no sense of impeding disaster and most of the people I work with have lived through previous crashes so it’s not naivety

Bluntness100 · 05/08/2018 17:33

I will continue to post news stories that are negative about the housing market, even though I know a lot of MNers will hate me for it

No one hates you, don't be daft, post all you want. We don't have to take you seriously but you're free to post it.

Fill your boots 🤣

Bluntness100 · 05/08/2018 17:35

Have you got a vested interest in driving prices down sophie

I doubt the poster holds such a postion of authority she could drive prices down. More likely she is in the sad position of being unable to buy, can't afford it, and stuck renting, so is hoping prices drop enough to give her a break.

It is what it is.

FabulousSophie · 05/08/2018 17:38

NeverTwerkNaked Yes, I am a potential buyer, who can see the market topping out, and thinks it would be foolish to buy today. I also worry about FTB, who may lose money as the market slides.
Your interests and mine are exact opposites. You want buyers to dive in, because that's how you earn your next pay cheque. I worry that prices have started to fall, and buying now is a mistake.

Bluntness100 · 05/08/2018 17:44

Sophie, is it not more you would be a potential buyer if prices crashed enough, but when they remain about this level there is no potential?

FabulousSophie · 05/08/2018 17:45

We don't have to take you seriously but you're free to post it

Have no fear, Blunt, I have fully realised by now that most MNers on this board would even try to laugh the FT or the Chancellor of the Exchequer out of town if they reported something about the housing market that MNers did not like!

glintandglide · 05/08/2018 17:45

But what about all the other tunes the market allegedly “topped out” Sophie? You missed buying something all those times too. This isn’t actually the big deal you’re making it- I agree with bluntness it’s more likely bitterness about being unable to obtain something you see everyone else having. It’s a shit position to be in and I sympathise. But your day will come and you’ll be surprised how you won’t think of this again, when it’s taken up so much of your time and headspace in the past.

FabulousSophie · 05/08/2018 17:50

Blunt
With all the huge uncertainty around, and with interest rates having started their journey upwards, I think it would be an enormous mistake to buy today. I feel really really sorry for FTBers who are being lured into peril by vested interests. They have far more to lose than I, because they usually have only small deposits.

Bluntness100 · 05/08/2018 17:51

It is a shit position and I can see how it happens to many folks, can't afford to raise enough of a deposit or get a mortgage at the level needed, house prices mean buying is out of your reach and your stuck renting with a shitty landlord,

So you start reading anything negative you can find, hoping against hope, they drop and you get your chance.

The difference is just say it, just be honest and say I need them to drop significantly so I can buy as I can't at this level.

Bluntness100 · 05/08/2018 17:52

I think we all know if first time buyers can sit tight for a few years they will profit.

Like nearly every first time buyer in history.

I wouldn't waste your sympathy Sophie. They will be fine.

FabulousSophie · 05/08/2018 17:59

glintandglide
I actually sold my flat in Fulham the month prices there topped out there, Oct 2015, for over a £ million, mortgage free, so when you accuse me of bitterness, it just shows how wrong MNers can be. Prices there have been falling ever since, and I would probably only get about £750k now - so I know all about getting the timing right, and how property prices can go down as well as up.

glintandglide · 05/08/2018 18:02

That’s so weird- why do you think the peak is now then, when you know you sold during the peak 3 years ago? Confused

Bluntness100 · 05/08/2018 18:04

Ah, the secret millionaire...

FabulousSophie · 05/08/2018 18:06

The peak in Fulham. Different places are peaking at different times in succession. The downturn that started in Fulham in Oct 2015 has now reached much farther flung places. It is very interesting seeing it slowly rippling out. Fulham started going down very early in the story, and is now way down.

saymyusername · 05/08/2018 18:07

@NeverTwerkNaked – "I work in the residential property industry and the mood is cautiously optimistic"

Optimistic that prices will keep rising, which is presumably what anybody in the residential property industry would like? Sounds like grounds for pessimism, as so many can’t move up to the next rung already, and FTBs are already priced out, so fewer sales.

Optimistic that there will be stagnation, which is the preferred option for most who recognise that there’s a problem in the first place because they themselves are minimally impacted?

Or optimistic that prices will fall, because they’re out of whack with salaries?

FabulousSophie · 05/08/2018 18:08

SW1 and prime central London was the epicentre, and peaked earlier, in 2014.

glintandglide · 05/08/2018 18:10

So OP hasn’t mentioned where she’s buying so how do you know her town hasn’t peaked by your measure?

Bluntness100 · 05/08/2018 18:11

I forgot about the famous Fulham peak.

FabulousSophie · 05/08/2018 18:12

glintandglide I haven't a clue where she is buying. It may have peaked or not. But as I have seen in Fulham, prices have been falling for nearly 3 years after the peak, and I would expect the same to hold true for other places after they peak

glintandglide · 05/08/2018 18:12

LOL

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