Hello OP
The only way to estimate your chance of success is to ask the school (based on recent years admissions) which category of the oversubscription criteria was used to fill the final place, then see which category you fit into.
I assume you are looking for entry into September 2019? You'll need to keep a watch on the website as the categories may change in future. The full 2019 admissions policy is
HERE
Oversubscription criteria
- Catholic ‘looked after’ children and previously ‘looked after’ children, who have been adopted or made subject to child arrangements orders or special guardianship orders.
- Baptised Catholic children, with a Certificate of Catholic Practice, who have a sibling at the school at the time of application.
- Baptised Catholic children with a Certificate of Catholic Practice, who are resident in the Parish of Our Lady of Mount Carmel and St George in the borough of Enfield.
- Baptised Catholic children with a Certificate of Catholic Practice, who are resident in the Parishes of St Monica’s, St Edmund’s, St Mary’s, Vita et Pax and St Joseph’s.
- Other baptised Catholics with a Certificate of Catholic Practice.
- Other baptised Catholics.
- Other ‘looked after’ children and previously ‘looked after’ children who have been adopted or made subject to child arrangements orders or special guardianship orders.
- Children of other denominations whose application is supported either by a certificate of baptism or by a letter from their Minister of Religion confirming membership of the faith community, who have a sibling at the school at the time of application.
- Children of other denominations whose application is supported either by a certificate of baptism or by a letter from their Minister of Religion confirming membership of the faith community.
10. Children of other faiths whose application is supported by a letter from their religious leader, confirming membership of the faith community.
11. Any other children.
Tie-breaks within any category are settled on distance.
Which one of the categories do you fit into? If the school tells you they have filled all places up to and including category 7 (as an example, I have no idea...it might be category 4), you are very, very unlikely to get a place if you are in any other category.
There are some very knowledgeable posters on the Primary Education board, you might want to try there.
Best of luck.