Do you think house prices are going to fall?

[PurpleNailVarnish]

I'm asking because I'm not sure.

I don't want this thread to turn into a bun-fight about whether people want them to fall or rise. I'm just wondering what others think.

There's no doubt that interest rates are rising which may cause the market to stabilise or drop.

OTOH demand outstrips supply which may mean the market continues to rise.

Then there's Brexit and who knows what that will mean for the economy?

I know that prices always rise in the long term but we're in our 40s so we won't be able to get a mortgage in the much longer term!

Im not in a position to buy just now but I still fantasy house shop.

A flat I had my eye on has been on the market since September in a popular area of South London. It just had £25,000 knocked off the asking price on rightmove.

Looking at the history of sold house prices it would seem that from people who bought flats there 3-4 years ago that's barely any profit.

What you can borrow and what is sensible to borrow aren't always the same thing.
We ended up not spending as much as we could have on a house/mortgage and I'm glad as it's not such a worry for us if things go tits up.

OP, in your position, I would up-size if your family needs a bigger place. If you’re worried about not getting the right LTV should prices fall, get a project. You’ll do it up adding value so even with prices dropping you won’t be out of pocket unless they completely crash.

In my bit of Scotland they are soaring (but from a low base).

@ThroughThickAndThin01 that is exactly the same here!

In my area (zone 6, East of London) they're definitely falling an different it weren't for the short supply of new instructions would definitely have fallen further by now. Genuinely wonder how many estate agents will stay in business with so many and so few homes to sell

*and if

JoJo we don't need a bigger house, we would just like one and can afford it.
The next step up would be a larger house but also more land and our own gated driveway, that sort of thing.

We had a doer-upper when the kids were small and we wanted them to all have a bedroom each. It was the only way we could afford it.
Please not again!
DH is very good at doing a place up and very motivated but now the DCs are all but gone we'd like more time together and some good holidays.

wherewithal
FWIW as a home owner I would like house prices to fall because we have plenty of equity, our affordability is good and we want to buy a more expensive house.
However, I do have a lot of sympathy with millennials who can't get on the housing ladder, especially as we are the parents of 4 millennials ourselves.
Of our 4 the eldest 2 have managed to buy and the younger 2 are both still at Uni so they have all the fun yet to come.
Though it was the same for us when we were younger too, at the height of the property boom.

I'll get off this fence now in case I get splinters runs off and hides in case this becomes another arguing thread, which was never my intention

I think I’m going against the grain a buyback here, but I do think there is a significant chance of significant falls both in London and out (even though there are no current major signs).

This is mainly because the income to price ratios are so much higher than the historical averages, plus interest rates cannot go lower. You only have to look at the recent stock market correction to see how sensitive assets prices are to even talk of a rise. I personally feel interest rates have been the single biggest factor in the price rises, with the inclusion of a second income into mortgage lending multiples a close second (I think this will protect prices to some extent).

Additionally there is the as yet unknown entity that is Brexit. In London, prices may also be affected by China’s introduction of capital controls.

I feel people saying they will not go down may as well say there won’t ever be another recession. At some point the last decade of QE will catch up with us and there may be a return of forced sales following redundancy if interest rate rises mean companies are unable to maintain their debt (e.g. Carillion).

I am looking at properties in London and in the last 2 weeks, 5700 properties up to £650k were added, with only about 300 sold in that time.

That's what I've been thinking glasshouse, with the exception of adding second incomes to multiples.
My parents had 2 incomes counted towards their mortgage in the late 60s. Although that was unusual at the time 2 incomes have been the norm for decades.

However, I really do agree with you that interest rate rises + the effects of QE are a recipe for disaster.

It reminds me of the film The Big Short, I wonder how many people are on the edge with their residential mortgages right now but those figures aren't accessible to normal people like me. Those people are on the edge right now before interest rate rises and the end of low rate fixed terms.
The consequences to society are a big concern.

Since it's just an aspirational house you're after, more of treat to yourselves rather than anything you need, perhaps you could just wait a couple of years to see what happens? There probably isn't any rush, is there?
I think the more expensive properties are more likely to drop in price. Whilst people need a roof over their head and hence there can be more competition for smaller places, the top end of the market is less resilient. I've definitely noticed that in my area the expensive properties take longer to sell and the prices are stagnant at best. But the 3-4bed family homes can still sell in a matter of a day or two if they're good ones.

Around here - south east - flats are falling. A friend has been looking and although they seem to be selling well at a certain price they certainly aren't commanding what they did 2 years ago. One has been on for a year and just dropped 40k to sell fast. I think wait, they will deffo keep dropping, esp when Brexit deals become clearer.