20% drop in house prices in next year

[WeeBitWobbly]

Did anyone read this in today's paper.

What do you think?

Sorry, mamatomany, I'm not sure what you mean?

You quoted me but I wasn't sure your post was to me, was it?

I honestly wouldn't care, mamatomany. I'm pragmatic. Given a choice of putting my life on hold waiting for a 'bargain' just in case house prices drop and I might have paid more than other people or buying based on what I can afford within my budget and lifestyle requirements, I'll take the latter.

That's not 'getting shafted'; it's just getting on with life. I'd regret a nihilistic existence always deferring my life, hanging on, speculating that I might get a better deal in the future far more than one in which I just pay up and get on with living.

I agree with that. I know people who sold in 2004 convinced the market was going to drop. While it now has done, they are no better off because they missed the big rises of 2006/2007.

I think having the security of a long term family home is more important than constant market watching until you buy right at the bottom before it starts to rise again.

I do think that you just have to think as your house as your home and that is its main purpose.

I'm not interested in making money in the short-term on a house - I just want a home for my family that we'll enjoy living in and can make our own.

A cliche I know but true for us.

Yes what Betty said.

I'm not sure I see where they'll save 24k, given that they have to rent a 3bed for next 2 years if they don't buy?

That said, I would love to know where alpine is, as 120k would not get a 3bed here...

They would save £24k off the capital, even if the rent was the same or more than than the mortgage both need to be paid.

You've read the papers if you still go a head you'll kick yourselves in years to come.

I hope not! We bought our house in 2007 and have lost a huge chunk of the deposit. We will be unable to moveor get a buy-to-let mortgage because our LTV ratio will be too low.

We really, really want to move, but will be stuck in our tiny house forever at this rate.

• the population is rising
• people used to live in family units, many people in one house, inc grandparents.. now they like to live in small units.

• number of houses not keeping up with this double whammy increase in demand

while in any one year prices can go up and down houses are going up in the long term..

Mamatomany, we'd save £24k off the capital, but waiting 2 years would see us pay out more than that in rent. Your argument really only makes sense if we would only have housing costs because we bought. Alas, we have to pay for housing anyway. As I said, I'd rather pay the bank than my landlord, and we'd have the added advantage of being able to fit decent double glazing and an efficient boiler. None of our many rented houses have had this, which means we are cold and/or our fuel bills are inflated.

I don't feel annoyed if I buy a coat and find it with 75% off in the sales a couple of months later. I would have enjoyed wearing it for those two months.

I also think we place too much emphasis on making money from property in this country.

IMO, there's no point in stressing about losing money in a falling market that I only made 3yrs ago in a rising market. I didn't work for it and I have never bought a house as an investment.

Many people, especially families are still buying with their eyes wide open. They know the market could fall further but whilst they don't want to pay 2007 prices, they are prepared to pay todays prices because they want to be settled in a family home. It's about quality of life IMO. As Lennon said, 'life is what happens whilst you're busy making other plans.' I want to live it.

I agree. I really don't see property as an investment. It's a basic need. I want to buy a house to live in. It makes no difference to me whether it would be worth 37p or £3 million to someone else, so long as it functions as my family home.

We're buying now. We have absolutely no choice. We have to relocate cities for DP's job & if we buy our monthly repayments would be about a 1/3rd of rent for a smaller place.

The prices have fluctuated so much on the street we are looking at it's hard to say there's a "right" price we should wait for.

We worked out that 50% of our recent house purchase was made up of gains made via property price increases by both of use climbing up the property ladder in the last 10 years. It is an awful lot of money. So for us prices would have to fall by 50% for us to "lose" money!

Mama- I know loads of people that have rented during the last 10 year period and hold out for prices to fall, they are still waiting and most have been priced out of the market in the south east.

Buy a house to live in and where your family can grow up and enjoy.

I'm really surprised that there are people on here that are saying they don't care about the money/investment/equity aspect of their property. If you don't now you will at some point. It has a significant impact on almost everyone's financial planning. Even if it's just the opportunity costs, it is worth looking carefully at the market before you buy.

I am a landlord and I don't think that property prices can go anywhere but down for the foreseeable future. Real inflation is high and most people can't afford to live as they did a year ago. I can't believe we've got this far into a property thread without discussing the impact of fuel rises but it is all my tenants want to talk to me about. Utility bills will affect affordability of property.

I don't subscribe to the rising population theory as just because people want to buy places doesn't mean they will. I think more twenty-somethings will flatshare until later. I think grandparents will live with parents and children. (I also think population levels will stabilise, but that's a different thread).

I can't see it will make much difference for FFB. Average salary round here is something like 17k. The cheapest place you could buy is around 100k for a tiny house in a dodgy area. The maths still won't add up even with a 20% drop.

mamatomany: "Ask yourself how you'll feel in 2 years time when you've paid £120k and the people next door move in having paid £96k, what could you do with that £24,000 plus the interest you'll pay on it ?"

I do see what you're getting at, really I do - and until very recently I was a real property Bear - in fact, I sold up in summer 2008 just before the market turned where I lived at that time. But, I have a very good interest rate fixed for SEVEN years. Next door might sell next year for 96k - but they will not get the interest rate I got - and I'd have been paying double in the interim on rent. You might think it's all about "overpriced assets" - but from my POV I've got a 3-bed house to live in for the next 7 years for half the price of renting - and of course, my rent was susceptible to interest rate rises (and landlords' whims) - my mortgage is fixed.

I am not going to spend the next 7 years living in a 1-bed flat so I can save x amount on a mortgage. We've just moved in (literally 10 days ago) and this is now my family home. Tbh I don't give a flying fuck what it's "worth" next year, it'll still be my home.

I have been really badly fucked over by a landlord. Tbh I'd rather be fucked over by a bank than a really vindictive, spiteful witch intent on hurting me and my family - she actually deliberately did something nasty on xmas eve! The bank will have to stick to the law and they won't make it personal!

The fuel price thing is interesting.

In the house we're currently renting which is large with sash windowns and no insulation we are paying extortionate amounts for LPG and the landlord will do nothing to improve insulation.

We sold 3 years ago and made a reasonable amount but for us property is not our business/main investment we just want a family home.

Also we've been actively looking for the last 2 years and there just aren't a lot of properties around that fit our criteria.

Well my 'financial planning' is to pay off the mortgage by the time we retire which we are on track to do. That is it! We can live free of housing costs once we are no longer working. And if we do sell at a lower price than we bought we are still going to be paying less for whatever we buy.

Thats it Orm - I mean that always used to be the goal didn't it?

Me too, Orm.

The difference, I think, is for RP property will always be an asset and, therefore, an investment to be capitalised upon. So things like 'opportunity costs' matter. For me, a house is something to live in. I don't go round the supermarket considering the opportunity costs of broccoli, I decide whether it will taste good with my dinner that night. Similarly, so long as a house is suitable for my family, I want to buy it and call it home.

LOL at opportunity costs of brocolli!

I have a friend who's entire income is from renting out properties she has bought for a song and done up. But there is no idea of financial planning - she does it to keep her head above water financially and she has sold several in the last year because she is having trouble getting good tenants. It's just a job to her same as any other.

I do think fuel is going to be a real killer for many. This place is double-glazed throughout, terraced (not to everyone's taste I know, but fucking warm) and we've got a wood-burner. Plan this summer is to insulate the floor of the loft rather than the eaves... no point insulating the attic, want to insulate the house!

Anyway, I've already saved myself a fucking fortune! As "everything" has been packed away in boxes, under stuff, behind stuff etc., etc. for the last few years - whilst unpacking this year I found 3 pairs of jeans with the label still on. In fact I've found so many clothes it's like walking in to a boutique I've never been in before and pulling a Julia Roberts on Rodeo Drive!

But without whoring yourself out I presume?