Average YOY increases…?

[bowenlater]

Husband and I in disagreement about whether or not to start on the private school track. I believe it is within our means, but am nervous of the unknowns after the VAT increase, and just because we can afford it, I’m not sure it means we should at the expense of other things, particularly at primary school age.

Can I ask other families how much the typical fee increases have been for them year on year? This could be a big determining factor. I’ve read to budget 10-15% but this seems ludicrous as that would mean fees of over 70K per annum for one child by 2034, when our child would be year 6.

And do you expect this average increase to remain steady in the future (once VAT increases are already applied as a new ‘baseline’?)

Thanks for any insights.

Of course it will increase at that rate going forward. Expect anything from 5-10%>

You have to expect it. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

What would be the reasoning? I would only go private if 1. Local state schools clearly don’t meet your child’s needs 2. There is a local private which is clearly better 3. You can comfortably afford it.

Don’t go private just because you’re in well paid jobs and think that’s what people do. Plenty of other good things to spend your money on which will also benefit your DC.

I never know if people mean an annual increase of say 10% including the fact each year/key stage tends to be more expensive, or 10% on top of that know increase. Very different end results!

I mean 10% on top of known increase… but if that’s what people say to budget for, the math would mean 70K+ in 9 years which seems ludicrous??

That does seem ludicrous, it would be way above historic increases at 10%. We've modelled 5% on top of the known increases. Lucky I suppose that we know about the VAT going into it as that would throw off anyone's calculations

Also, it's not just fees. Often these schools have expensive bespoke uniform exam fees, expensive trips, meals etc on top of the tuition fees. You'd be wanting to add 10% on anyway for things like these.

It's not that there's a serious expectation that it will go up by that amount every year, but that if it did, would it be a problem. It's not just inflation. Legislation changes like the recent changes to NI and pension contributions will knock in to fees. Anything could happen. It's never wise to operate in the margins of just-about-afffordable.

Yep falling student roll would increase the fees etc

We're 5 years into a likely 10-year long private school journey (secondary/sixth form for 2 kids a few years apart in age).

I originally budgeted for 5% increases year-on-year - this was based on wording in our school's contract that suggested a higher than 5% increase meant you don't need to give the usual term's notice of withdrawal and I hoped this meant they would avoid anything higher on that basis.

So far we've had one 8% increase. I adjusted my year-on-year estimates to 8% after this, but all others years have actually been less than 5%. We've just been told next year's increase is 2.2%. On top of the fees, I also budget about 10-15% extra each year to cover other costs - music lessons, trips, uniform - we've never used the full extra budget but that's mainly because my older child isn't bothered about trips. I expect my younger child will make full use of this budget as she moves up through the school!

Of course, I didn't budget for the 20% VAT and we were 'lucky' that a small inheritance came along that has meant that we can cover it. Otherwise, we'd have needed to make some difficult decisions.

I will say that we live in a 'cheap' area of the country and the school is aware of its demographic (mainly medics, academics, and a few big local pharma industries). I think this means it really does work hard to keep the increases down because it could easily price local parents out of the market. Other, more affluent, areas might have higher costs and/or push the rises further - I tend to see parents in London/SE talking about bigger year-on-year rises.

I would agree to budget 5-10% increase. Ours were initially around the 5% mark but we are now within a higher interest rate/higher inflation environment and the next rise will be 3% plus inflation.

You can’t do it on the basis of “well surely it will never be more than £x” - private schools have increasing utilities, NI and pension contributions before anyone even thinks about refreshing buildings or anything more optional.

They have been between 3 - 7% (ignoring the VAT increase of 12%) The increase for 25/26 school year isn’t out yet but have been told to expect 3 - 5% . Then have a separate pot for activities/uniform/trips. Perhaps consider a mix of state and primary - am so happy that we did state until 13+ as my DCs really do appreciate the opportunities they have and also meant we were able to save and also be very established in our local community where we all have very good friends.

Our school was 14% last year.

I was told that if you start in reception you should expect the price of sixth form to double in that time. I think that is maybe a slight overstatement but near enough.

We’ve just gone through the primary and I was digging into what we paid when we started vs the cost now and if you exclude the VAT bump it’s averaged around 6% per year from reception to year 6. Obviously VAT bumped it up a bit for the last year. We are heading into secondary and budgeting 8% increase year on year, plus an additional 5% for ‘extras’. Who knows if it will be enough but hopefully will even out by end of schooling.

We had a 5% increase in Sept 2024, then a 8% increase in Jan 2025. Just been informed that Sept 2025 will see another 13% increase.

This pattern is unusual though because of the VAT situation. My advice - think very carefully before you start the fee paying journey. Have a good look at your local primary schools. You may well find that you prefer to wait until Year 3 or Y7 to give you a bit more certainty (and a financial cushion).

This is the discussion we are currently having! DH is in the "we can so we should" camp.

OP, when doing our calculations on whether it is affordable, we have projected 15% yoy increase hoping that is a worst case scenario.

Have had the secondary fees now. Flat from last years published fee excluding VAT - when VAT came in they absorbed it in part so rise is about 8% from last years VAT incl fees. Wasn’t as much as I thought but budgeting for at least 9% each year and hope I’m going to be surprised!