Number of applicants for independent since VAT announcement

[blahdee]

I have seen a number of threads re 11+ stresses for independent schools in London and outer areas, but wonder if the volume of applicants this year is still very high compared to other years?

Is there any anecdotal data out there?

Friend who works in a top public school says applications and enquiries are down for British children (but up for overseas) - but I could imagine that for those in the next tier down in price, they will have those who now won't go to the top priced ones, but I don't know.

I’ve heard bits and pieces about numbers being down, but bear in mind that the birth rate this year (ie for current Y6s) dropped and continues to fall for Y5 onwards. So if looking at VAT effect it needs to be seen in context.

open days at local preps are seeing half the number of attendees relative to the year before, according to someone I know who works in one of them. I've no info on secondaries.

That's interesting. It would make sense for shifting of applying to schools in next "price tier" down. For example, I noted Epsom (referring to well known SW London school) as one example. I know their fees have always been on the higher side, but now 12k per term for Y9 upwards. Yet their admissions FAQ suggest they will interview around 500 in the next stage after exams, which I think, implies that there are quite a few more applicants than 500?

I guess it's finding it hard to believe there is still so much desire to apply for schools at this pricing level, but will that trajectory still stay the same?

As a pp said, birth rate reducing as well.

Maybe the business model has to change and a heavier reliance on overseas admissions for certain schools.

This is sad to hear.

It seems a lot of independents are diversifying, ours is looking to make their facilities available for business events and weddings in the summer holidays.

Birth rate bulge at secondary level isn't due to reduce until 2028/9.
Anecdotally local indy schools are seeing fewer applications for Sept 25
Enquiries to LAs have increased
The ultimate impact will to make indy schools even more elitist + reliant on overseas pupils.

I don't think that's new - I can think of a couple of schools where you can get married in the Chapel, and they do summer schools and sports stuff over the summer.

Plus a lot have links to international schools which gives an income.

Ours isn't seeing any reduction in interest or sign ups at the moment.

But some current children are leaving.

At the end of this term we're losing 8 (6 due to VAT and 2 who were temporary internationals anyway) and gaining 7. So overall pretty static at present.

July might show a different story.

Hello all, any update on year 7 entries, especially for smaller non selective schools? Our DS is set to join in September and I’m worried it’s going to be too small for him - we loved the small family feel all the times we visited and the kids looked so calm, engaged and happy but induction evening seemed very low on numbers.

Our school are saying for the 4+ there’s no decline in interest.

I asked the registrar at an open day (already have sibling there) and she said numbers for open days were holding firm. It will be interesting whether that translates into applications/ quality of applications though.

Top Tier London day secondary.

Anecdotally the offers for some London day schools appeared to be far greater than previous years, but the numbers have held steady for the larger ones. I know of one small London co-ed day which even after offers were contacting people who had registered interest previously (and attended open days) to see if people still wanted to apply and I heard they only got 50% of the intake they hoped for.

The private we have chosen had an extra intake class last year and offered with a view they would be happy to do this again this year but I don’t think the acceptances materialised so back to a normal year.

Our prep seems to be holding their numbers and it seems a lot more parents are happy to pay for private primary and then send to the good / outstanding local secondaries.

Our London prep has had 10 new joiners in the summer term, with more coming in September (another local prep has closed). The nursery and reception classes are much smaller than in previous years (one form instead of two), there is the issue of a decling birth rate though which I think is a bigger factor. There have been some leavers in older years but also joiners (a net gain); those who have left have moved abroad, not gone to the state sector. Lots of international families, but I don't think the school is heavily recruiting overseas - they are from a wide range of countries, not predominantly Asian.

No difference in numbers from what I have heard anecdotally. I have heard though that schools are now taking on kids that may not have been given a place previously (behaviour or SEN issues). Again that was anecdotal from a governor at our local private school.

Thankyou all, that’s reassuring. I was wondering if all the focus on what do you pay for would cement the benefits in people’s minds. Round us there are some excellent selective high achieving independents which seem to be as oversubscribed as ever, but we chose this for it’s fabulous supportive environment and clear focus on pastoral care and building rounded confident young people.