There was a mini baby boom peaking in 2012 but still with high birth rates in 2013-2015, began to drop after that. So demand is currently at a peak across secondaries.
Therefore, people are less likely to get their preferred state so may choose private as an alternative to the state option they are given.
State schools unfortunately are underfunded and many are having a lot of behaviour related issues. So more people may be trying to stretch to private if they can especially if, as above, they couldn’t get their preferred state option.
Boarding is becoming less popular as a pp said. So more demand on day schools.
Also more SEN diagnoses: if you have an EHCP then state may work better but if your child is not affected enough for an EHCP, but can’t cope in a large class or very mixed ability intake then parents may feel private will work better and again will stretch if they possibly can.
All this leads to more pressure on places, especially at the more sought after schools, which in turn has two effects
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parents tutor as they know their kid has to be not just “good” but “standout” to get in. With so many kids applying a few extra marks can make the difference between a place or not. And then those who didn’t intend to tutor do so because everyone else is.
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parents apply for more schools, to be in with a shot of getting at least one. 5-6 is usual whereas it used to be 3-4. If they want a bursary or scholarship it may be even more, so as to enhance chances of getting that award.
What this means of course is a reduced chance for everyone of getting an offer from their preferred school, at least in the first round.
I believe this will all calm down a LOT in 5-6 years’ time as the reduced numbers from current reception/year 1 and below filter through. But that doesn’t help those of us going through 11+ right now.
As regards grammar schools - well take all the above pressures and then add in the fact that they are free… in an environment where school fees go up every year by more than inflation and have also just had VAT added… they will be insanely competitive