School allocations coming up!

[Inyournewdress]

I was wondering how everyone is feeling about the upcoming allocations next week, and if anyone has any intelligence about how this year looks?

From what I have heard from a couple of friends who work at primaries, applications were way down which could bode well for some of us. But so many local factors!

That’s good to know, I assumed that with it being the lockdown baby Intake it would be higher?
I tick the boxes for distance and sibling already there but still feeling the stress waiting 🤦🏼‍♀️

I am sure you’ll be fine with distance right and sibling there, but I get that it’s nice to have written confirmation! I think birth rates round where we are in SE London were down that year, so it could affect things. A head teacher nearby told me that some schools are very worried about falling applications this year. But perhaps I am deluding myself 😂

I originally thought this too, with all the unexpected lockdown 'whoopsie' babies (there seemed so many at the time) but I guess all those unexpected/surprise babies were balanced out by loads of couples who had been planning a baby possibly deciding to delay until the world became more settled again? I imagine stories of women giving birth in masks (or at least with midwives wearing masks) and dads not being allowed in until active labour was established, were enough to put many off choosing to start/expand their family in 2020/2021, especially as most people had very limited support networks back then too due to lockdown restrictions.

The birth rate was definitely down again, so I imagine more people than ever will be satisfied with their allocation as more people are likely to get one of their choices (and more than ever will likely get their top choice). The ones who will be sweating will be the schools, fearing for their future budgets if numbers are low again. Last year in our local authority there were only a handful of oversubscribed schools. Many with a history of oversubscription had spaces for this year's Reception cohort, and I can see the pattern continuing. We have a good reputation but haven't been full in Reception for 3 years now (likely to be 4 as I can't see that changing next year). We're full to capacity in Years 4-6 but our current Reception are our smallest intake ever. It's a really worrying picture.

Bizarrely, we've had 2 new primary schools open in my home town in recent years (Reception only intake to begin with, growing by one year group each year), despite most primary schools in the town having plenty of infant spaces. Yet no new secondary schools, or at least expansions for the existing secondary schools, despite there being a shortage of places for this age group. It doesn't make sense!

Our school has two spare spaces after siblings. So, more than two LAC/EHCP children, and some siblings will not make it.

I'm quite anxious as I think we may be the furthest away family - older sibling got in last year as a non sibling on distance when there was a huge slump in applications across our town. He has some SEN and is well settled so I really wouldn't want to move him.

I'm guessing it's a rural school with a very small intake for there to be that many siblings, that it only leaves 2 spaces for others? Especially for you to know exactly how many siblings are due to come, too.

Experiences can vary widely between those applying for a school with an intake of 15, compared to those hoping to get into one with 60 or even 90 spaces.

Good luck

@BoleynMemories13 yes small church school with an intake of 15. Definitely one of those flukes of statistics!

Yes you are all probably right. I got pregnant literally a week before lockdown so all I remember is the fight to get midwife appointments and scans because they were “just so busy because everyone is having a baby” but actually In hindsight it was probably because they were understaffed from self isolation.

@PersianStar I did too! But I had such a different experience, they even gave me some early scans because they were so quiet.

When my son was born late 2020, the midwives told me that when lockdown hit, they had forecasted it might be super busy at that time (late 2020) as everyone was stuck at home so lots of babies might be made but it didn't materialise. I had a private room and pretty much 1 on 1 care while in hospital!

Anyway, I'm pretty sure we will get our first choice but now a bit worried as it might be a small class!

DS starts in September, more than half his new class are siblings! There's 7 children in DDs class with a sibling starting.

It will depend on the area but in general the birth rate dropped for children in this cohort so if you’re applying out of catchment you have a better chance. But some areas don’t have a lower birth rate.

So unsure what we'll get, locally via a head teacher I've heard there's exactly the number of eligible children as places in (small) town, but that it's low sibling numbers. Of course some will go elsewhere, and kids out of catchment could apply and vice versa.

Our catchment is the least popular school and last year old got 18 kids with PAN 30, so if that ends up being similar then there will end up being a composite class at some stage which I really don't want. We have a private school place but it's such a massive commitment. Looking forward to knowing - less than a week to go!

Hi all, I'm looking forward to finding out.
Our first choice school has 60 spaces. It's an amazing school but due to the location (slightly out of the city) was undersubscribed last year. We are moving into catchment but not there yet so had to use old (out of catchment) address for the application. I think (hope!) we should still be ok, but if DC2 doesn't get a place, we will go right to the top of the waiting list, because we're moving house at the end of the month, and DC1 is moving to the school after Easter (they had places in his year group thankfully) so we will be in catchment with a sibling - and hopefully first on the waiting list. But it would be nice to be sure that DC2 is definitely going there!

Keeping my fingers crossed for everyone! It’s partly genuine curiosity for me after all the advice about what you might or might not get…to see how it really comes out. I think some years even in a city like I am, choice is a bit of an illusion and there is really only one you’d get, but I am wondering if it might be different this year.

We are considering moving so if we get our lower options we will need to expedite that!

We have a mix. More schools in our Trust than we thought will be full with a waiting list, and several others nearly full. We have a one form entry school that will have 22 on its waiting list.

The birthrate 2 years before was much lower.

Interesting @Charmatt

The birth rate for 2019 for the UK as a whole was higher than 2021? About a quarter of pregnancies are unplanned so lockdown had a massive impact on that.

I think the dip in Autumn/ Winter babies is probably offset by Summer babies. DD1 was born June 21 - in her nursery class, the class is hugely swayed towards May onwards babies. Out of a class of 24, there are about 10 June birthdays. There are hardly any children with Jan-April birthdays. Presumably because people put off ttc in March/ April 2020 but by the time Summer 2020 came around and things were starting to stabilise slightly / open up a little, people felt happier about trying. The weekend that I gave birth in June, our hospital had actually closed its doors to any new women in labour and were diverting them to other hospitals (this was a major London hospital) and you could tell on the postnatal unit as it was absolutely rammed and noisy. Far nicer when I had DD2 there last year!

There are much fewer children across the board. Every school in the town I teach in is basically at 50% intake for applications. It’s incredible how few children there actually are!

I was pregnant in April 2020, but had been trying after a MMC at the end of 2019, so I think late 2020 / early 2021, you have the pregnancies that would have naturally occurred. I think Sept 2026 will be the year when you really see the impact Covid had on birth rate.

I'm tentatively excited for Wednesday! I feel fairly confident we would have got our first choice, despite being out of catchment! But will be nice to have it confirmed!

I looked up the birth rates for my area and they were significantly lower than previous years for both 2019-2020 and 2020-2021. Of course people move in and out of the area (in my city there is quite a bit of movement) but I think it gives a good general indication.

I just looked out of curiosity

20/21 - 560,000
21/22 - 578,000
22/23 - 547,000!

(Rounded slightly!)

I'm surprised that it dipped so low again 22/23 - I have another DC in this bracket!
But the birth rate is still low on the whole!

* This is NHS statistics, so babies born under NHS care*

According to the ONS, there was a slight increase in birth rates in 2021.

"There were 624,828 live births in England and Wales in 2021, an increase of 1.8% from 613,936 in 2020, but still below the 2019 figure (640,370); 2021 remains in line with the long-term trend of decreasing live births seen before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic."
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/bulletins/birthsummarytablesenglandandwales/2021

That will include September-December 2021 babies too, who won't be going to school this September. I think, as another poster has said, births seemed to pick up in the second half of 2021 to make up for the lack of babies in the first half of the year. March-June 2020 wasn't exactly the best time to be trying to conceive, so it's understandable there was a dip in births in early 2021.

The NHS statistics are by financial year (April-March).

I wonder if the Department for Education does analysis based on academic years (September-August) - surely they must do?!

We’ve got our fingers crossed at my school and desperate to be full. All our local schools have falling pupil numbers, which is catastrophic for school budgets. We’ve reduced our PAN for this year and have our fingers crossed that we might be full for the first time in 5 years!

My kid’s school is the same. They’re still in the consultation period for reducing PAN but have reduced the number of classes anyway, due to not being able to fill places.