School admissions: are we likely to get our 1st option?

[DYIDIY]

Please help me understand how school applications work and whether I am likely to secure a place at my favourite school. I will try to be as succinct as possible:

1st preference: 0.95 mile from our home in a straight line, in the past two years they have admitted kids up to 2 miles from school based on council website. Looks like they have filled all available places in the past years (this is also in a different council, not sure if that makes a difference, although very close to us)
2nd preference: 0.53 mile from our home in a straight line, not sure about max distance of admissions but last year they had filled 55 out of 60 places which suggests isn’t oversubscribed
3rd preference: 0.52 mile from our home in a straight line, not sure about max distance of admissions but last year they had filled 51 out of 60 places which suggests isn’t oversubscribed

Which school are we more likely to get? Is it likely we will get option n1 despite not being the closest to us?

Unless you are absolutely sure that the school will be undersubscribed then that is a very risky strategy.

If your child didn't meet the admissions criteria then putting only one school down means they would be allocated whichever school still had places left after everyone else was allocated.

Where I live it would be fine to do that. We have the middle school system and there are enough places at the High school for everyone who applies. But that is not the case in most areas.

That’s poor advice, because, your situation was your situation and doesn’t apply to anyone else.

If you put only one preference and don’t get it, you will be allocated a school that may be much further away or one that you don’t want. You can’t blackmail the authority in that way.

Never just put down one school. Always include the ones you like and have a realistic chance of getting but always always include the one you will get.

That was very risky. You got lucky - people near me who tried this didn’t and ended up getting a place the far end of the borough in the school nobody wants

Sounds like OP has already done the basic info on catchments/criteria if they know the info on furthest distance offered. They only publish this info for oversubscribed schools.

based on previous years it’s likely you’d get in, but by no means a guarantee. One of the other things that can impact demand for certain schools (outside of birth rates/number of siblings) is changes in ofsted ratings of local schools - so if some schools have moved to ‘requires improvement’ or ‘outstanding’ that will move the demand around and can put more pressure on well rated schools. So I’d be more wary if your first choice has recently become outstanding or if one of the closer options has moved down a level.

Yes, only putting one school is a strategy that virtually always carries risk and never any benefit. Admittedly in some circumstances the risk will be tiny as an individual's circumstances may pretty much guarantee a place at their preferred school but only listing one school does not increase your likelihood of a place. If you are in the top X number of places when applications are listed according to the published admissions criteria you'll be offered a place, I you're not, you won't. It really is that simple.
People who only put one school and were offered it would have still been offered it if they'd fully completed their application. They got the place because they were eligible for it, not because someone from the Admissions team took sympathy on them thinking that they must really want that school or because the LEA is obligated to allocate a place at an expressed preference.
If you are sure you'll get a place at your first preference it probably doesn't really matter, though personally I still completed all preferences even though no child from our village has been refused a place at my DC's school in living memory - there's always a first time! But if you aren't certain you'll be eligible it's a big risk.If you don't get your preferencs you'll end up with whatever is left over after everyone who did fully complete their form is placed. Why anyone would take that risk I don't know.