The last time I checked there were about about 1,300 independent schools in England. Every month it trickles down a little due to the long-term effects of:
- TPS costs rising
- Teacher's pay rising (e.g. the recent 5.5% award will have to be matched by the private sector)
- Rising cost of buildings maintenance (often period buildings)
- Rising cost of support staff (minimum wage rises, pension requirements etc)
- Rising administrative costs surrounding children's schooling (red tape compliance)
- Costs of more technology in school
- Costs of school lunch food has risen
These costs have been hitting the industry for a number of years. Covid came and destroyed a lot of independent school's financial reserves.
Add to this that independent schooling isn't as "socially acceptable" as it used to be, the state offering has improved, we're all paying more in taxes (and fees having risen by about 50% over the past 8 years around me) etc and running a private school has become really, really hard.
Then Labour arrived on the scene and announced the removal of charitable status and requiring VAT on fees.
Fees are expected to rise by around 12% due to VAT with the business rates argument possibly pushing them up by a fair bit more.
The tl;dr of all the above is that smaller prep schools will be largely wiped out while the larger independent schools will simply be attended by the wealthiest people.
One last thing - once charitable status is removed we should expect all these schools to remove whatever bursaries they offer. Scholarships for academia, music and sports may remain but again only for very best. We'll all end up poorer for it.