We were just on the 4+ waiting list for two schools, St Christopher's and South Hampstead. The deadline was today and in the end we got St Christopher's - big relief. I wanted to write this post to help people in future years on waitlists. Here are a few things I didn't know before the start of this process.
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Waitlist offers do get made. Several people got St Christopher's this year, one or two got SH. I did some research for 7+ entry at different schools, and on average a waitlist place has around a 1 in 3 chance of converting. Of course that will vary hugely by the school and year to year. I also don't know how it applies at 4+.
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However, waitlist offers will typically be made right at the end - deadline day or thereabouts. That was the case for most waiting list offers this year. Our offers actually came a few hours after the deadline had passed for the original offerholders. It's a horrible wait, but it will probably go down to the wire. That's because...
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The schools offer more places than they have space. They know that some people will have multiple offers, their circumstances will change, whatever.
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The result is that even if a few people decline the school straight after getting offers, the admissions officer probably won't go to the waiting list immediately, because they have those buffer offers outstanding. It's only when the deadline looms and those parents with more than one offer, or an offer and a waitlist offer, start having to decide, that the waitlist spots realistically get called.
Very good luck to you and remember that children will do well wherever they go, by far the most important thing is a loving family who care.