Has the cost of living crisis affected number in your local prep school?

[Tambatamba]

Where I live, the numbers joining in reception are whittling down year on year. The prep that feeds the best performing private high school around here only had 9 joining in reception this year. I know this because my daughter is in the nursery there.

I've noticed one with a banner outside saying it's got some limited spaces for this September (trying to make it sound, I thought, like a rare and exclusive offer)

I don't remember seeing it before, and did think it must means that numbers are down.

I'm not suprised when the cohort that can afford private schooling is getting smaller and smaller all the time; COL must have hit some 'borderline' families who might like to but just cannot absorb the cost now,

I noticed a few more prep schools offering places when I was down in the SE recently, and our one local prep school (northern city) closed a couple of years ago. I think people are saving money for private secondary, or just opting to spend the money on tutors instead. Two new tutoring outfits opened on our side of town this year.

That's interesting. Yes, one of my older girls was in a girls school that closed in 2014. The same thing happened there in the years before it closed. I don't think 9 is enough of a social mix.

Also, people's mortgages going up mean that people have less disposable income I guess.

Perhaps parents realise that Labour are highly likely to be the next government and are determined to scrap the VAT free status of private schools along with other tax breaks they have.

Unless I was super wealthy I would be thinking twice about committing to educate my children privately knowing that in a few years the fees will probably increase by at least 20-30%because once you start in a school changing is always disruptive.

Scrapping vat will not raise fees by 20 to 30 per cent. Shame these schools don't teach financial literacy.

This year's reception cohort seems to be a really low birth year locally for us. Schools (state) that are normally oversubscribed have got places available still, this is unheard of. At our normally oversubscribed school there are about 17 places over the 3 reception classes.

😂😂

Why are you laughing? Institute for fiscal studies explains why there would be an effective 15% vat rate on schools.

I have noticed that at least two local private schools were advertising still having spaces well into August. At least one of them usually tries to maintain a myth that they are academically selective.

They also say the change will have little or no effect on numbers

https://ifs.org.uk/news/removing-tax-exemptions-private-schools-likely-have-little-effect-numbers-private-sector

What do you mean by social mix? If you choose private primary you're absolutely not getting any kind of social mix anyway.

The birth rate is dropping so that will also be a factor

On the money side, query whether there a group of people whose finances now make them question it but also a second group who now choose it as state schools are so badly resourced now compared with a few years ago (ie the people who could have afforded it but chose not to).

I think this is a low birth rate year as have seen numbers drop across all schools in our County. It's a declining forecast annually after this year.

Being academically selective and being full are mutually exclusive.

DC's school is academically selective. If someone leaves, they do not offer the space unless they are sure the child meets the required standard as they work well ahead of national curriculum and no point offering to someone who cannot keep up - they will be miserable and leave. School is mostly full but there are some spaces in the odd class

The local state school in my parents' area is seeing falling numbers among the little kids as well. House prices have soared in the area and it is mostly retirees now - when I was a child, the area was full of children! Despite this, there is a petition going on in the area to block development of a new housing block (low-rise block of 2-3-bedroom flats, so would attract some families who want to live in a "nice" area but could not afford a full-sized house here) on a disused brownfield site in the area, because "nobody has thought about the impact on the overcrowded schools!" Madness.

Not sure if it affects preps but I read a lot of private schools are opting out of the TPS which means or I took to mean finances are a bit strained

Overall birth rates have dropped which is impacting all primaries & many state ones are looking at closing or merging.

I’m in an area (Home Counties) where predictions are there will be a decreasing need for primary school places generally. Quite a few schools have dropped a form (so say gone from 3 to 2). That’s predominately as a result of falling birth rates (it’s the same in London).

There has been a reduction in number of kids in prep schools at reception stage.. This is likely to be combination of birth rates and people getting first choice state school, but also costs (but less so). The numbers are often the same by end of prep though (lots of children entering y3-5, which I envisage are families who for financial reasons have delayed entry a couple of years).

No! My daughter’s private school (through school, 4-11) had a record number of applicants this year apparently. Based in North London.

One independent school in the next town has announced that the lower (primary age) school will be moving into the main school site of the secondary school by next September. That is public knowledge. What they have told fewer people is that there will be no extra building work required to accommodate the extra pupils. The secondary is contracting in size and there is plenty of spare capacity on the main site. Two sites are not economically viable. Parents who have previously used the lower school as a prep to local grammar schools feel the school will be less willing to prepare children for the state 11+ because they will want to encourage pupils to stay on to their secondary.

No, numbers are at their highest they've ever been. They just made a new pre-school and Reception classroom to fit everyone in.

Enlighten me, my maths is fine but surely if VAT @ 20% becomes chargeable £10k school fees instantly become £12k. Then when you factor in making the schools pay full business rates (presently only charged 20%) that needs to be added to school fees along with other tax breaks and clauses for example allowing the self employed/company owners to offset school fees against profit and loss.