What happens if a school is massively undersubscribed?

[TheYearOfSmallThings]

A friend's child has been offered a place at a local school which used to have 3 classes of 30 each year but, due to falling numbers, this has been cut to 2 classes. This may have triggered an exodus, because only 12 of those 60 places are currently filled for September 2022.

It is not a bad school at all, but there are a few outstanding schools and a few popular tiny schools, and with a drop in total applications this year, people just haven't chosen this one. They are wondering should they quickly switch elsewhere purely because of the dwindling numbers? Does anyone know what might happen in such a situation?

They will get less funding as they have less pupils. They will need to lose some staff and possibly have composite classes.

Eventually depending on the availability off places at other local schools it may be closed but that will take a while to sort out so in the mean time it will continue to run possibly with combined year group classes and with not a lot of funding.

I teach at a school with falling numbers. Small classes are good news in terms of teacher attention but bad news in terms of budgets - it costs the same for teacher however big the class but school funding is per pupil. That means you struggle elsewhere in the budget.

Well, the obvious question is - can they switch elsewhere? No point in all the soul-searching if there aren't any places.

What will happen to these 12 children will probably depend on how full the Y1 classes are. Infant classes aren't supposed to go above 30 so top-up funding is available where the pupil numbers aren't a multiple of 30 (eg if there are 31 children you need an extra teacher even though you'd only have funding for one child paying for them). If Y1 has more than 78 children they'll need 4 teachers for R and Y1; otherwise they'll be allowed to have 3, and you may find that the younger or less advanced Y1 children get put in the same class as the 12 Reception children. Not ideal, for several obvious reasons, but school budgets are tight.

can they switch elsewhere?

They definitely can this year - I don't know what has happened, but even schools that are usually oversubscribed have spaces.

This is in an area of London with masses of schools in a very small area, so I can see this one being merged and then closed in the medium term. I've just never see numbers collapse like this.

I would switch. Falling roles is a huge problem in London more broadly and a number of schools will have to close. Its a combination if families leaving post Covid and Brexit as well as lower birth rates.

A school with few pupils will have very limited funding and will be under huge financial pressure. This will have knock on implications across the board. If there are good schools with spaces that are under less financial pressure then I'd switch without hesitation.

Yes, I think I would too, mainly just for stability. My friend is uncertain whether this year is just a blip (in which case they would be walking past a good school on their doorstep to get to an equally good one further away), or whether the school will not stay open.

I didn't know London schools were having this problem tbh, so I don't know what to advise.

I worked in a school with dwindling numbers. First came redundancies with classes being merged. Then it got so bad that we had to merge with another school in a similar situation, so all of the children in our building had to move to the other school further down the road.

it got so bad that we had to merge with another school in a similar situation

I've seen schools here merge, but with a successful school, because it is usually a case of a failing school rather than falling numbers. The failing school is rebranded but continues to exist where it is.

Yes this is a London based partly Covid issue I think - the hybrid work from home model has meant that those who needed to be in the closer areas to Central London have moved further out causing issues for schools.

The area between Clapham and WImbledon is quite bad for this

It has a knock on effect though for where I am in Surrey

Funnily enough I live in an area which is inheriting all the Londoners who have left and school admissions this year have become a nightmare.
Lots in the newspaper and town social media of people not getting school places and “Londoners” renting while they find their dream house and taking places from original locals. Lots of appeals in my area, catchment areas tiny, it’s quite the talk of town.

We lost a village school about 3 years ago because numbers just plummeted. Half in fear of closure if it got to small, I sometimes wonder if the exodus of panic hadn’t happened it might still be open!

I think it quite a low birth rate year. We aren’t london (large town in the SE) and the 2 schools near me both only have 15 children for 30 spaces. Only about 5 schools in the town were oversubscribed this year, almost all of the others have some spaces and in some cases loads!

the current year 5/6/7/8 I think were huge years. I am a teacher and when they were coming in to reception new classes were being added to various schools and/or new schools were opened. Numbers have now fallen and now those spaces and classes are obsolete.

im guessing they’ll have to combine reception with year 1 if numbers allow (see explanation above) or struggle financially with only 12 in the class.

I am a teacher and when they were coming in to reception new classes were being added to various schools and/or new schools were opened. Numbers have now fallen and now those spaces and classes are obsolete.

That is interesting - someone told me today that lots of schools around here added classes as part of a pan-London plan based on predicted increases in primary aged children. I guess crazy house prices and Brexit have driven away lots of families.

DCs primary is the same but I'm not worried.

Usually has 3 classes per year but is a First School so stops at Year 4. All 3 of the local Middle Schools have between 8 and 10 classes in Years 5-7.

Just beeen announced that there will only be 1 class of 25 in Reception this year. Thankfully they're short a teacher in Year 4 so no redundencies, but it is worrying.

We're in the midlands, used to be a popular town to commute to Birmingham or Mancester but due to covid many have left.

School isn't usually oversubscribed but only has 2-3 places per year usually. The local catholic school usually has to reject between 20 and 30 children in Reception and even they're for September just under their PAN.