To be shocked at SATS loss

[Saintofsanto]

DS has been doing mock SATS and we had the results this week. Although they're at or around the 100 mark they're still a way below the projected target. I know it was two years of disrupted learning and we've had a lot of other disruption in the family over the last 5 years (one thing after another it feels). I feel really shocked by it and don't really know what to do for the best in terms of my parenting support. When they say they predict GCSEs what does that actually mean?

@Saintofsanto It means that the secondary school project their GCSE grades off those SATs in normal years but I believe they are taking stock for the results for SATs and GCSEs this year to see how much impact covid has had on learning.

As for your child, they will sit CATs, a test of ability when they start secondary which will give the secondary an idea of where to place your child sets wise for usually, just maths and English and sometimes science.

As I have said on other threads my own son who is now almost 19 and at uni was predicted off SATs a 5 for English lang and a 6 for Maths. He actually got an 8 for English and a 9 for maths. It is just a rough guide, it does not define a child's ability. Learning isn't a linear line. Just support your child where you can, reading or read to him, get them to do a little bit of maths every day. Not worksheets but fun games on a phone or computer.

Once they start secondary, widen their knowledge base, if they start doing the Grand Canyon for Geography watch a YouTube video by the National Parks Service on how it was formed etc. Get enthusiastic about learning new things. Don't worry yet. Secondary is where they get a teacher who is hopefully passionate about their subject as that is what they teach as opposed to a primary teacher who has to cover it all. Don't underestimate what a good teacher can inspire in a child.

When I was doing GCSEs, they predicted grades based on various classwork, coursework, half term assessments, mocks etc. SATs results determined which Maths/English/Science sets we were put in.

Most schools do their own testing to put children in sets and form their predicted grades. Ours have them go in on a Saturday in July before they start. Once at high school they can offer far more in terms of targeted support, just being in a different set at the right level can make a huge difference.

Pressed too soon. Predicting GCSE grades was an ongoing thing, starting in year 10 and would usually be reviewed at the end of every half term.

When it comes to SATs/mocks, they usually take exam stress and extenuating circumstances into account, especially if you were predicted good grades and usually perform well. My mock GCSE results were atrocious but they held no bearing on my predicted grades.

@Prescottdanni123 how long ago did you sit your GCSEs?

Ds2 is in year 11 and Ds1 is in his first year at uni. With Ds1 because his predicted maths GCSE grade was a 6 (based on his 5 from KS2 SATS) the school computer system which I assume is SIMS didn't allow the teachers to input anything higher than 1 grade above predicted. For Ds1 this meant a 7 despite getting 9s in year 10 mocks, year 11 November and February mocks. High 90%s but the system said no. He was taught by a member of SLT who told us it was frustrating but they cannot over-ride it. He used to manually cross out Ds's 7 on reports and write 9 in red.

Yes ultimately your predicted grades are based on assessments, classwork etc but the system behind it all and what they base Progress 8 on is based on the SATs results from KS2. It is called a flight path and both teachers and Ofsted hate it because a million things affect learning from age 11 to 16.

As schools are measured by progress made we are given the target grades, which take into account SATS results and other data. We can’t change these but we can the predicted grade. So a kids target is 5, we can predict a 8 if we think they will get this.

It’s just a way for schools results to be measured so I wouldn’t worry

@OnTheBenchOfDoom that would be school policy not SIMS programming. I'm a teacher and we can input whatever grade a student is predicted to achieve.
In terms of SATS most schools do use them to map a predicted "flight path". However, there are always students who were coached through them who will never achieve the inflated GCSE grade they're predicted and also lots of others who "over-achieve" as they flourish at secondary

Overall there is a correlation between SATS results and GCSE results, but obviously that's not true for every child.

SATs mean nothing, they are used as a way to judge primary school performance. Schools put pressure on children and parents because if schools don't do well then they risk poor OFSTED outcomes, potential loss of roll etc. your child is where they are at, support and encourage them to work hard, make progress, tell them not to worry about SATs, they won't impact on his future at all.
I say this as a senior leader in a primary school.

They're used as a stick with which to beat secondary teachers.
"Johnny's target, based on his SATs score, is a 7. Why isn't he achieving?"
Because at 11, Johnny had yet to discover drugs and girls.

Or:
"Based on SATs, Alice should be an 8. Why isn't she?"
Because we've been mystified by her SAT results since she started. She's working at a 5, which is bloody good for her, but she's been told she's below target her whole high school life.

SATs mean nothing

Please don’t worry - it really annoys me how they use them to predict GCSE grades. I am sure they do provide insight but from personal experience I think they can demoralise kids once they enter secondary and are given low predictions. In my sons case he did well in sats I thought at the time and was given 6 as his goal but went on to get the highest grades. (6 seems very good to me but not good enough to do Some the a-levels it turned out) My dd though did not do well at all in sats and now finds she has been given low expectations it seems. Luckily one of her teachers has told me she doesn’t follow those predictions religiously and has told my dd she expects her to be able to achieve much higher in her subject. All kids are different but my own DD is an example of flourishing later and using data so religiously I feel is demoralising.

I’m a teacher with a child in Year 6. I genuinely hope he does ‘okay’ in his SATS, but not brilliantly. High predicted grades are not necessarily a good thing. I want him to enjoy secondary school, not constantly feel he’s underachieving.

Don’t get me started on schools who let LSAs ‘help’ children with SATs so they come to us with completely unrealistic data. It’s thoroughly immoral.

TheWholeNineYards yes yes yes. You used to be able to tell which feeder school some of our kids came from by looking at the disparity between their SATs and their actual work. It was ridiculous. But once they've left primary, they're someone else's problem.

Wait, are you saying my Y2 child’s SATS results will have a bearing on her future? I was not aware that it can affect her in any way.

It has no effect on anyone’s future

They're a school performance measure. Secondary schools get judged on the progress made from ks2 to ks4 using SATS and then GCSE results.

They are used (stupidly, wrongly and badly imo) by schools on an individual level to give target grades.

They won't. They might be used if the high school initially sets on them. But they'll be used to judge how much progress your child has made over time- and judge how good her high school is. Art teachers particularly like kids being given a target for Art, based on English and maths results.

[quote OnTheBenchOfDoom]@Prescottdanni123 how long ago did you sit your GCSEs?

Ds2 is in year 11 and Ds1 is in his first year at uni. With Ds1 because his predicted maths GCSE grade was a 6 (based on his 5 from KS2 SATS) the school computer system which I assume is SIMS didn't allow the teachers to input anything higher than 1 grade above predicted. For Ds1 this meant a 7 despite getting 9s in year 10 mocks, year 11 November and February mocks. High 90%s but the system said no. He was taught by a member of SLT who told us it was frustrating but they cannot over-ride it. He used to manually cross out Ds's 7 on reports and write 9 in red.

Yes ultimately your predicted grades are based on assessments, classwork etc but the system behind it all and what they base Progress 8 on is based on the SATs results from KS2. It is called a flight path and both teachers and Ofsted hate it because a million things affect learning from age 11 to 16.[/quote]
My son did appallingly in SATS and was on 2s based on those. All his predicted grades were changed based on tests done by the school before year 7 and updated throughout their school life. We haven’t encounter any problem with predicted grades and they’ve gone from 2s to 5s and 6s.

@tempester28

Please don’t worry - it really annoys me how they use them to predict GCSE grades. I am sure they do provide insight but from personal experience I think they can demoralise kids once they enter secondary and are given low predictions. In my sons case he did well in sats I thought at the time and was given 6 as his goal but went on to get the highest grades. (6 seems very good to me but not good enough to do Some the a-levels it turned out) My dd though did not do well at all in sats and now finds she has been given low expectations it seems. Luckily one of her teachers has told me she doesn’t follow those predictions religiously and has told my dd she expects her to be able to achieve much higher in her subject. All kids are different but my own DD is an example of flourishing later and using data so religiously I feel is demoralising.

I think this is my concern, that expectations will be set and they'll either self fulfilling (ie low expectations resulting in low achievement) or that they just becoming demoralising.

I'm reassured by the post saying they'll look at SATs differently this year.

@dontcallmebabylalala well no but DSs Yr2 SATs suggested he would achieve 110 (with other indicators maybe I don't know)

My son is also due to sit SATS this May. I feel for him an the school. There has been so much disruption due to Covid. Tbh I feel a bit stressed about it, which I am trying to hide from DS. I find myself continually repeating what my mum said to me.... Just do your best, read the question twice, show your workings, check your answers.

It is not a fun time. It is v unfair on schools that Sats are even going ahead I reckon.

Perhaps there has been disruption due to Covid, but they're all in the same boat so I don't understand the increased anxiety. Across the board all children have been affected. If we as parents fully understood that then we would ease off the pressure some what.

To be drawing GCSE predictions from muck SATs results seems absolutely ridiculous. This cohort of kids have missed 9-12 months of schooling so to assess them on their knowledge within this period is crazy.

Independents and grammar schools use their own tests (like those listed here) that assess kids in subjects they may have no experience of e.g. verbal/non-verbal reasoning as well as maths and comprehension in an effort to negate the impact of their prior schooling. They're basically IQ tests for kids and it's only from these tests that they can draw speculative predictions of their GCSE results...and even then they can be very wrong!

My DS1 was considered borderline between 4/5 by his primary school (a few years back now) and they gave him lots of extra "support" to make sure he got the 5s.

At the time I thought this was good and helpful, I now realise the only people it benefitted were the school.

As a result, his target grades were far too high and he spent his whole secondary school career feeling like a failure