Advice on shrinking school numbers please

[willschoolclose]

I have NC because details may be outing.

I have one DC in Year 3 a local state primary. When DC joined the school it was a 2 form entry. The following year it went down to a 1 form entry (consultation previously done with LA). So DC's year was the last year with 2 classes, neither full. Year above only has 1 class, Year 5 and Year 6 have 2. Va CofE school in a area where there is no shortage of school places, you don't have to live within 200m to get into a school. We are equidistant between 4 primaries and could have got into any of them. Chose this one in spite of having no religion at home because they agreed to what we wanted with regard to DC SEN and it is a nice school, DC is happy.

Last year they only filled about half of the 30 reception places and merged the reception and nursery. Looking at the stats for this year, on allocations day they gave out 13 or 14 places only. New Head in this year who is fine no probs but has clearly been tasked with saving money. Dinner ladies have been sacked and hot meals now shipped in from catering company. TAs have all been under review and a number will now be leaving in July.

Here is the question: any ideas as to whether the school will manage to stay open for the next 3 years until DC will naturally leave, or should I start looking for another school? All advice gratefully received thanks!

The LA won't want to close the school.
The HT will be trying to balance budgets - a falling roll means reduced funding hence the restructure. It is happening in lots of places.
A new HT may encourage more children to choose the school.
You should be fine as long as you are happy with quality of teaching.

Unlikely to close, but very likely to amalgamante classes.

I am guessing that the falling roll is due to the demographics of the area.

nearus there was a huge new estate built. Local school, got bigger and bigger, until was at one point largest primary school in UK. Second school built over the road.

Thing is, the estate was nice, and popular. Families bought good sixed houses on it and then didn't move, so 15 years later, all those primary aged kids were now at secondary, and the roll in the school fell.
The 2 schools amalgamated and it is now one 2 form entry school.

These ebbs and flows of numbers are common, and the LA will be looking long termand trying to see where the next bulge will be.

There are many schools that are 1 form entry or less that exist quite happily. The issue for this school is that they have to be realistic in terms of staffing on moving from 2 form entry to one form entry and that cannot happen overnight. So there will be some short term financial pain for the school until this is achieved but it is very unlikely that the school will shut.

I would be a little more pessimistic than admission, I think in this case - they are shrinking from a 2 form school to around half a form, which will inevitably result in significant income loss, and more amalgamated classes. Much will depend on local circumstances as to whether the numbers of local reception children are likely to at least maintain.

Of course many small schools of PAN 15 do exist, I think what is interesting here too is that you say there are a number of undersubscribed schools in the area, which may lead the LA to suggest amalgamation of a couple of these schools if their medium/long term pupil forecast for the area remains low, which will depend on local demographics. As this is a VA school, they would have no power to enforce the suggestion on your school though.

However, none of this would happen overnight, and I suspect not in the time your DC has left.

This happened to our village school due to changing demographics but also a very unpopular head - she was good on behaviour but parents didn’t like her and she put people’s backs up and was even found to be lying a few times. Went from a thriving over subscribed soon to losing a third of its pupils in a matter of a few years. Weirdly of ofstead liked her but that didn’t help with numbers as parents didn’t.

Not behaviours - paper!

You could suggest a free drop in toddler group on the school site with the existing nursery and parents stay.

Good way to talk to prospective parents and get them excited about the school.

They may amalgámate a class or two..

Try to find out what the teachers think about it all.

I would be watching the teachers - if the class sizes remain low, it is probably a good thing for you too?

Hmm. My dd started at a school that took 20 and historically had been full .. her year there were 12.. the next year 10, the year after 16, then 6... it closed before she finished... is there capacity in other local schools ?.. ours was closed by the LA to fill them..