What happens if a private school becomes un-viable?

[CostcoUggs]

Just wondering. DS is Yr 2 and at a smallish private primary school (40 per year across 2 classes) that's been around 80+ years. All years before him were full and in fact oversubscribed, but his year is under numbers for some reason, and a lot of boys are moving to a larger private school in the city centre for Yr 3. That might leave just 20 in his whole year. And that's before the fallout from coronavirus!! Don't know about younger years but I suspect a similar pattern.

What happens if they just can't get enough boys to pay their bills? Can a school pare down and go to one class per year? Or could they become a free school (a local secondary did this a few years ago)? Or do they just close altogether and we'd have to scrabble for a place somewhere else?

They mix classes then they close.

They close.

They close. Mine did, it was very sad and sudden

There will come a point where it ceases to be viable. Largest cost is usually staff so that is where cuts start to be made. The odd fluctuation in numbers can probably be absorbed, although if social and group activity opportunities become more limited in a low year further pupils leave, but if there is an exodus or it recurs, it would probably close eventually. Are there more viable alternatives locally?

Chances are the finances are in trouble already. Look closely and you’ll see the cracks.

See if the extras offered are see there. Once they start mixing classes it’s game over.

Thanks all.

We do have alternatives - there are other local private schools with places. Plus our catchment state school is always undersubscribed because it is in a not Naice area (where we live, haha) but is actually a good school. It's an area where you can't swing a cat without hitting a school.

It would be heartbreaking for DS though as he's really happy there. Though is a bit sad by how many of his classmates are leaving.

There's been no mixing of classes suggested. Extras are still there.

I just wondered as the local secondary that used to be private became a free school and wondered if that was an easy route for a school to go down, before closing altogether.

(Anyone local might be able to work out what schools I'm talking about from all this! North West by the way)

I Know exactly the school you are talking about. No private school will be allowed to become a free school if the school is in financial trouble. The fees for the school will definitely be more than the school will receive if they became a free school, so financially it is not viable.
Realistically the only ways forward for the school are to cut their expenditure to suit their fee income or close. Given that parents are deserting the sinking ship, the outcome is more likely the latter than the former.

A school that size should have some wriggle room. 20 in a year isn't a ridiculously low number. If the school is no longer financially viable it might close. It happened to my niece's school but it was much smaller (only 6 ish per year and the headteacher was a bit of a character and had an interesting take on financial planning). The other local indepenedent schools found space for the displaced kids (even though a few didn't technically have space).

Thanks both. HandfulOfDust wow only 6 in a year. There are I think 38 in DS's year now, probably will go down to 25 or so next year unless other kids join.

I actually don't mind if they cut out a lot of the padding to stay afloat (4 year olds don't need specialist French and music teachers...), we chose it because of small class sizes and good wraparound care for working parents. But I guess others may not feel the same and it may be a vicious circle of reducing provision / reducing numbers

Ooh admission I was half hoping someone would know what I'm talking about School begins with an A, yes? Do you think it might end up closing?

Is the secondary school that turned in to a free school NC?

I can think of 3 schools near me that have closed in recent years due to low numbers, the pupils had to find their own places at alternative schools mostly with only a team's notice.

A school near me (not in the NW although I used to live there!) shut two years ago, from what I gather the writing was on the wall, & although it shut suddenly at the final moment, quite a lot of families had already withdrawn their children in anticipation.

justdontatme yep NC!! Don't know the details, just that it did.

coconut oh dear that's what I'm afraid of

A friend of mine’s son was at NC when it changed actually but I don’t know the details. He left for sixth form anyway. Can’t work out what school you’re talking about though - a boys only prep? Is it St A?

APS

OP, bottom line is that the school could remain open but it all obviously depends on the number of pupils left and what state the finances are in. I have no knowledge of that but if the school continues to lose pupils then the finances become more and more difficult.
For you, as other parents, it does become a difficult question as to whether it is time to look elsewhere or to tough it out and hope for improvement.

Oh it will close. You just have to decide if it is better to move now or at the end. If you delay your second choice may be full and not able to take on more pupils. Two out of four of ours closed suddenly, the third is teetering and now not taking boarders, selling up buildings.

It is sad

I've joined specifically to reply as we found ourselves in this situation some years ago, and the school closed. Fortunately we had spotted the signs and left as soon as our child reached the top of our preferred state school's waiting list. We had to pay a term's fees in lieu of notice but that proved to be money well spent. The school announced it was closing about 2 terms later. I did feel a bit guilty that we had contributed a nail to the coffin but ultimately it was going to happen anyway and there wasn't a vast range of alternatives open to us. Our first concern was our own child.
Most of the other parents moved their children to the next nearest independent school but we felt very let down by what happened and didn't want to risk a repeat occurrence. Sadly we were right, as some years later the other school closed at what would have been a very key point in our child's education. Many of the pupils who were affected ended up in the worst of our local state schools, or having to board or travel long distances to the next available independents. It was a dreadful experience for all the pupils and parents, but particularly those who were the same age as my child who had been through the experience twice.
There were strong similarities between the two closures, though I am told by friends that the second school managed to keep the situation even more secret than the first one did, so it was more of a shock. But neither was honest with parents. Some things were very obvious - falling numbers, staff leaving etc - but something happened at both schools that not many people picked up on. Whilst overall numbers were down,some new pupils did arrive and the rumour (subsequently proved true) was that they were all in receipt of generous bursaries or scholarships. This was misinterpreted by many as a sign of financial security whereas it was actually a desperate attempt to keep the numbers up.
If you are seeing warning signs like that, then personally I would be developing an exit strategy. If my experience, and that of a number of my friends, is anything to go by the school will not admit there is a problem until they announce closure. And they are unlikely to give you much notice, which may lead to a mad scramble for places in alternative schools. I would jump before you are pushed, or at least have a very good idea of what you are going to do if you are pushed. Good luck.

I'm in the NW, and want to know which school now.
What county at least, although I'm sure it wouldn't be Lancashire.

I’ve always thought there were an awful lot of independent schools around that area & it seems plausible they won’t all survive in a big downturn. I don’t know enough about that school in particular to have any idea about whether it’s in a perilous state, but I wouldn’t be surprised if any of those schools are really - the big ones will be fine of course (I assume boys are leaving in Y3 to go to MGS?) but it’s pretty clear there will be a huge economic hit as part of all this so...

Thanks all.

Devlesko I've given the name of the school - if the initials don't mean anything to you, you're probably not local Not Lancashire.

justdontatme yep big yr3 exodus to MGS this year. My older DS is at AGSB and there was just a couple who went in his year (this was 5 yrs ago). You're right, lots of independent schools in a small area. As well as very good state so the added value is less clear - mainly class sizes is the thing going for it.

Thank you Mrs Avocet that's really helpful. I think I will contact my local state school and find out how to get on their waiting list for in year admissions at least The warning signs are very helpful.

justasking why do you say it will close? Do you know the school specifically? Not being arsey, just curious. It's very much not a boarding area. Don't think we have any boarding schools in the whole county!

Thanks admission . I think a back up plan is needed but we will try to tough it out until later as DS is so settled there. If it failed at a crucial point and we couldn't get him in anywhere, there is the last resort option to move a short distance and send him to DH's old independent that takes anyone who will pay goes straight through to secondary.

There’s one boarding school, very specialist & very central

Yeah, as you say, the state schools are very good too, so a pretty reasonable option to put kids in state & tutor like mad for the 11+ instead, if the economics start to bite.

You wouldn’t consider MGS yourself then?

MGS just feels like a long way from home, and a huge amount of time commuting for a young child (though actually some who are going live even further away). It would be a pain with our jobs, especially with our eldest at AGSB. I would prefer to do state plus tutoring and hope for the best if it came to that. Plus 12k a year senior plus all the extras is a lot for us...

It's funny how things change in just a few years. We had to register for APS when older DS was a baby, it was that oversubscribed. Those in my NCT who waited until nursery didn't get a place.

It's a boy-only school? Do I understand this correctly?
If that's the case, why don't they just go co-ed?