Will this be an issue further - possible school closing?

[Ahmawa]

So my DS it at a new school - it is in its first yr of operation. It is supposed to be a 2 form entry. However there is only a single class and 20 kids.

I understand that Primary allocation is next week but the head mentioned will only be another class for next yr - they don't have numbers for 2 classes at Yr reception.

I assume in year 3 of operation they will have possibly two classes in reception but will this impact finances so much - shortage of pupils they may close the school down?

Within a mile of the school are three outstanding primaries and one good primary on the cusp of being outstanding looking at its results.

New schools take a while to get going

Has anybody mentioned anything about the school closing or have you just jumped to that conclusion?

With outstanding primaries nearby, a new school is a risk. Parents will be wondering what it offers that others don't. It will take a few years to build up the reputation and attract people. They will have a skeleton staff so should be within budget so I wouldn't worry about that yet. Just give it time.

New schools often build up. The first year reception only, the second reception and Y1, then reception, Y1 and Y2 ...isn't that what's happening here?

It depends. Was the new school NEEDED - ie did the LA seek sponsors for or otherwise arrange for the opening of this new school because there was a local shortage of places?

Or was it e.g. a Free School, opened 'because a group wanted to open it', rather than because of local need?

I remember seeing some figures from, I think, the Isle of Wight, where various secondaries were undersubscribed but a Free School had also been opened, leading to virtually all schools being undersubscribed with lower than ideal budgets. If your school is not NEEDED, then yes, it may dwindle and close. If it is genuinely needed, but basically only taking 'those children with nowhere else to go' at the moment because of the quality of surrounding schools, you would expect numbers to build up slowly, and to fluctuate somewhat with birthrate, until it has a reputation of its own that means it positively attracts numbers of new applicants.

The way that the funding scheme works for new schools is that the funding is based on the expected school numbers rather than the historic numbers in the school each October. There is a claw back mechanism if the school makes a wild prediction and is badly under-subscribed from what was agreed. This means usually that the school is viable as it slowly increases in size. There is a natural reluctance with many parents to go to a new untried school, especially if there are other outstanding schools in the area. Often after a couple of years the numbers do accelerate as parents gain that confidence.

My biggest concern would be around the facilities. Are they on a temporary site? Have they got a new build and are the facilities all built or is it a portacabin site?

Generally an Outstanding Ofsted is worthless as they are many many years out of date.

It is a Free School and its reasoning was to provide extra places as all the nearby schools are full.

It is still in portacabins and the actual school building has been delayed - was expecting the School to be built by Sept 2018 but looks like now Sept 2020.

No actual building has yet taken place so Reception and Y1 will be in temp accommodation.

So it will only grow at the pace the population increases for the moment - if the other nearby schools are well-regarded, then they will be people's first choices.

Some people may get places at other localish schools that weren't quite full (so for example, if your school is located to the East of an existing school, people who don't get places at the existing school but live to the west of it may apply to fuirther schools over in their direction rather than coming to yours).

Some people may prefer to go private if they don't get the existing highly-regarded schools.

A small, new, untried school designed for 'those with no other place' and in portakabins will tend to be 'a school of last resort' for a few years, and thus grow only as fast as the number of children without places grows, until it has established itself and preferably has permanent buildings. If the need is genuinely there, it will get there eventually.

Who has sponsored the Free school? I know of places where an equivalent start-up school is being sponsored by a well-known school with a great reputation that is always over-subscribed, which does help to give some reassurance about quality.

It will depend on reception numbers in the local area. The birth rate 'bulge' years are through primary now, and numbers applying to reception generally dropping.

This is of course subject to local conditions. A new large block of flats nearly all inhabited by young families makes a difference esp at primary.

A few years ago, our local primaries were establishing 'bulge classes' each year as demand for reception places exceeded supply. There is now talk about schools amalgamating as several schools close to each other are very below planned admission numbers and the budgets are impossible to balance.

Portacabins with no actual building work having taken place, despite an estimated completion date of last year doesn't sound that promising tbh.

I would worry about that as well, Christina - if modelling predictions said that a 60 pupil a year school was needed, and they've managed 20 in the first year and 30 or less in the second, a) it sounds as if a bulge class or two could perhaps have accommodated the extra children (though of course if the other schools are academies that is harder to make happen) and b) it may be that money for the new building is put off further and further into the future in case they get left with a white elephant. Unless this is in a well-funded part of the country - inner cities or London, generally - then you really do need 30 children per class to break even, and that's in an established building.

I think that the school is in the typical situation of a new free school. They have opened in temporary accommodation expecting that a new school will be built quickly. Unfortunately that is often not that simple as the funding for the new school comes from the government (ESFA) and nothing moves quickly. The grounds for the building have to be purchased and then agreement reached on the scale of the building etc which all takes time.
I would go back to the school and ask them to confirm what the latest position is with regard to a new building. Realistically a new build is going to be 18 months minimum from the point where it is agreed to when it is opening. So if they are now talking September 2020 I would have expected the purchase of a site and for plans to be well advanced for the school building by now. If they cannot give that reassurance then you have to wonder how long the portacabins will be there for.

The Land has been purchased and the planning has been approved. However it seems to have been like this for now near on two years.

I'm afraid that I would wonder whether the funding behind the Free School is reconsidering whether it's going to be financially viable to build then.

Primary school allocations happened yesterday - you should be able to find information online about how oversubscribed the other local schools are (or not), how many applicants there were etc.

This might give you a lay idea of the viability of the school. I'm in London and reception numbers have dropped considerably - half of the schools in our borough aren't full for reception intake, for example.

I have just looked at the stats and that of the 3 outstanding schools two are full and oversub but one has spare spaces - 16 - it has 150 yr intake.

Another school that was built for primary about 1.5m has just had 3 places for schooling for 30! But it has had really poor reviews yet they have built a new school!

How do you feel about your situation?

What you've written sounds quite concerning in terms of the future of your child's current school, but it might feel different on the ground so to speak.

Personally I like the teachers and the Head who really has a positive can do attitude but her hands in a sense are tied.

It seems everytime there is a new spanner in the works from planning permission to a ground report for gas or underwater seams to land appropriation issues.

Going forward the school will somehow need to find extra space on its already cramped temporary site to house 27 more kids. The current classroom was ok for 18 kids but the new reception class is bigger.

I have simply trusted the Head and the LA who seem to say it's always out of their hands.

Just to correct the school that had 3 places allocated for a class of 30 is one further away. The one closest to us (another new build) has 45 allocations for 60 places at Reception.

Do you have a B plan for your child's education for if the school closes/the building doesn't happen?

If the plan was for a two form entry school and there simply aren't the applicants/extra children to fill these, the trust will consider the financial viability of the school. From what you've said, it doesn't even have the capacity to provide classroom space for the two classes there will be as from Sept. Does it have a playground, art/music/drama/Pe facilities?

That would be my concern in your situation, tbh.

Can someone tell me how Free Schools are actually funded? Why is the LA still invoilved if it is a free school?

How late in the day can they turn around and say we won't build the school?

Free schools are funded by the government like other schools, based on how many pupils in the school, how many eligible for pupil premium etc.

www.gov.uk/types-of-school/free-schools

As Free Schools have only been around for less than 10 years, it's hard to know how late in the day they can decide not to build the school but, a number of free schools have closed with short notice due to lack of staff/permanent buildings etc.

www.theguardian.com/education/2017/jan/15/southwark-free-school-london-to-close-60-pupils

I say this to provide you with information rather than alarm you, and in each case the LA allocated the pupils in the free schools a place in another school.

christina thank you for that.

My plan B is that my DS is still on a waiting list of the school I always wanted him to go to. We live nearer to the school than many who attend but we live on the road just outside the catchment area.

Othewise it's home schooling.

Best of luck whatever happens.