Are year 6 SAT results used to project GCSE results?

[EXtremeheat]

Just curious. DD has done well so not worried either way. I told dd to do her best but not to get stressed about them as the results were only important to see how the school were doing, but after reading stuff on here it seems they are used to set future targets too. Dd's secondary school is not linked to her primary and they do not set until year 8 (maths) and other subjects in year 9 I think.

Again, they can retest and change their sets as much as they like - but the progress 8 targets won't change.

So what do the scores actually convert to in terms of GCSE predictions?

Eg
If a child scored 95 SPAG, 92, Reading, 97 Maths - what GCSE grades would be predicted?

100 SPAG, 103 Reading, 104 maths - what GCSE grades would be predicted?

And if a child scored 115 SPAG , 118 Reading, 114 Maths - same question?

Is there a fixed formula applied? Or is it not as straightforward as that?

Yes they are used. In my school, in general an 'average' score of 100 would give aspirational targets of grade 5/6 at GCSE, for example.

In ALL schools.

Here's a riveting video which explains the process!

Nowadays Secondary Schools are assessed in Progress/attainment 8 so it's actually better to have lower SATS as these children are pushed harder because the school need to show added value to students progress.

Tbf there’s always been a value added score. And it doesn’t really matter which group of pupils are making better than average progress.

In very many secondary schools, it’s easier to get good progress from middle and higher attainers than it is for lower attainers. In primary schools, the lowest achieving children often make less progress too. Obviously if they get PP, there is greater impetus to improve their progress. It’s hard work though.

Coco: if a child gets level 3 for KS1 but only gets level 4 at ks2, that’s below average progress. The school can not afford to let that happen. He should have been secure at a 5. If he cannot make good progress at secondary, he’s not being particularly well taught. Targets don’t mean an awful lot though, so he will just have to be happy with what he gets but my DD got all level 5s and 9 x A* at GCSE so that’s very good progress and above a 5/6 grade in current money so it can be done.

but only gets level 4 at ks2, that’s below average progress. The school can not afford to let that happen

Especially since levels don't exist any more. There is now a much simpler system in place.

Coconut oil - it was the same with my DD, very demoralising. She always said she wishes she hadn't done as well in her SATs.

SATS are used to indicate the minimum GCSE grades a child would have to get for the school to be doing an acceptable job and not draw the critical eye of OFSTED. It'S a baseline figure. For some children that baseline figure will also represent good progress. For others it will be too challenging or not challenging enough. Any halfway decent school will want to do more with its kids than the bare minimum, so the grade computer generated from SATS should be regarded administrative only.

Bubbles I don't think he was Level 3 at KS1. But once that was down the pressure was on the school to make that Level 5 for KS2, and so on. His GCSE targets are based on those.
If he had been Level 2 then Level 4, he would be hitting all his targets.
He doesn't worry, I don't either but I just feel it makes the whole system a numbers game rather than about the children.
There's a video something like 'Hitler recieves sats results' and it always makes me laugh with a 'no level 3 at ks1' and 'we all know level 6 writing is impossible' line.
But as Feenie says the whole system has changed now, it was 5 years ago he was in Year 6. At the end of next year he'll end up with some different numbers as results... can't get my head round that, keep forgetting if 1 or 9 is best