I think you are asking reasonable questions. When the outcomes are based on teacher assessment, a fairly accurate indication of likely outcome should be possible just a few weeks before.
Of course the main thing is he is progressing and doing well....and he is. However, I remain amazed that a number of parents cannot see that if a parent is told one outcome is likely, and then another is the actual outcome, that this isn't a bit surprising and disappointing, when these are the levels that mark outcomes at the end of 3 years in school. It isn't the be-all-and-end-all, but it is an official and recorded outcome, which goes forward the next stage.
My DS is quite a bit older, but I had a similar thing a few years ago. At the end of Yr 1 we were told the levels he was working at and the teacher suggested what was possible by the end of Yr2.
Part way through Yr2 we had a parents meeting. I asked if he was on track for L3 in all areas. Teacher was very confident that he was.
We had the same conversation at Easter and it was confirmed again.
When SATS results came out, he did have L3 in reading, writing, maths and science...but only L2 for speaking and listening. No-one in the year group got a L3 in that area.
So I went in and asked about it. Yes, it was prob the least important on paper, but I found it odd. I asked how this had happened when twice I had been told he was on track for L3 in all areas and this area was totally based on teacher assessment and didnt even have tests to inform it. Teacher and the Head couldn't think of any answer to give - he had done fantastically well etc etc - they couldn't give a reason for why they had said he was on for L3 for all areas or why this hadn't been achieved, nor why no-one in the class had it, despite a decent number of L3s in other areas. He had never had a target in this area and it had never been mentioeend specifiacally at parents evening. I know, I know that a KS1 level for speaking and listening is neither here nor there.....but the point is, that if a system is to be used and reported to parents, it needs to make sense, be understandable and explainable. And often parents don't understand. It is not unreasonable to want to understand and to expect to be able to ask and get an explanation.
Also amazes me that parents are getting these results of KS1 and 2 SATs home, but have no idea of what the numbers mean. Is it that the figures are sent home without any form of explanation about expected, greater depth etc...or is just that people don't read them? If they do come home without any explanation, why is that?