level 2a end of year 2

[cannotbelievethis]

If a dc is a level 2a at end of year 2, what would their predicted level be at the end of year 6 when they leave primary? I get a bit confused about how many sub levels they are supposed to move up each year. Thanks

They should be 3a by the end of Y4, 4a by the end of Y6

That's the expected progress, but in today's educational climate most schools would want to be getting a 5.

However, levels will not be used nationally from next year.

What will they be using instead Mrs Castle?

I'm not sure. Next year, Y2 and Y6 will be assessed using the current format, but for other year groups schools are (I think) basically being told to assess in their own way. The reason is that the new curriculum does not match up to the level descriptors.

Hopefully someone will be along soon who knows more about the proposals.

The new tests (from 2016) will give a scaled score

The raw score on the test (the total achieved marks out of the total 50 marks) will be converted into a scaled score. Translating raw scores onto scaled scores ensures performance can be reported on a consistent scale for all children. Scaled scores retain the same meaning from one year to the next, so a particular scaled score reflects the same level of attainment in one year as in the previous year, having adjusted for any differences
in difficulty of the test.
Additionally, each child will receive an overall result indicating whether or not he or she has achieved the required standard on the test. A standard-setting exercise will be conducted on the first live test in 2016 in order to determine the scaled score needed for a child to be considered to have met the standard. This process will be facilitated by the performance
descriptor in section 6.7 which defines the performance level required to meet the standard. In subsequent years the standard will be maintained using appropriate statistical methods to translate raw scores on a new test into scaled scores with an additional judgemental exercise at the expected standard. The scaled score required to achieve the expected level on the test will always remain the same.
The exact scale for the scaled scores will be determined following further analysis of trialling data. This will include a full review of the reporting of confidence intervals for scaled scores.

Desired psychometric properties
While the focus of the outcome of the test will be whether a child has achieved the expected standard, the test must measure children’s ability across the spectrum of attainment. As a result, the test must aim to minimise the standard error of measurement at every point on the reporting scale, particularly around the expected standard threshold.
The provision of a scaled score will aid in the interpretation of children’s performance over time as the scaled score which represents the expected standard will be the same year on year. However, at the extremes of the scaled score distribution, as is standard practice, the scores will be truncated such that above or below a certain point, all children are awarded
the same scaled score in order to minimise the effect for children at the ends of the distribution where the test is not measuring optimally.

Performance descriptor
This performance descriptor describes the typical characteristics of children whose performance in the key stage 2 tests is at the threshold of the expected standard. Children who achieve the expected standard in the tests have demonstrated sufficient knowledge to be well placed to succeed in the next phase of their education having studied the full key stage 2 programme of study in English. This performance descriptor will be used by
teachers to set the standards on the new tests following their first administration in May 2016. It is not intended to be used to support teacher assessment since it only reflects the elements of the programme of study that can be assessed in a paper-based test

That is really useful info. Thanks. My ds is currently in year 4 and has been given NC levels until now. He has always been well above expected levels (currently level 5c in everything). Are dc able to show they are exceeding with the new scores?

mrz will the scale scores be something like this:

oea.dpi.wi.gov/oea_wkce-crtcuts

but only available for end of KS1 and 2?

Or will there be score equivalents for each year group?

I don't understand what MRZ wrote. .
"Scaled score"?
I thought they were going to move to percentiles which means everything is relative to the cohort, and no definite consistency from one year to next. I went thru an education system like that so fine by me. But I think quite controversial in the UK.

Whereas GCSEs or NC levels as currently defined, are threshold tests. Teachers can learn to teach to the test and avg scores should be expected to rise year on year.

ps to OP: DS got 2bs & 2as in yr2 SATs and immediately leapt up in ability for yr3, so he probably would have finished primary on 5bs (but we went private so he never did y6 SATs so can't know for sure).

lljkk it's direct quote from the DfE so who knows what it will mean until 2016

diamondage there are no plans for other year groups (just end of KS) so will be up to schools - unless that changes (could have a different government by 2016)

lol, okay, fair enough!!
Sort of sounds like it might be a combo of threshold & percentiles/normalised curve.