Data for primary school admissions

[Fedupofplaystation]

Planning ahead a little.

Is it possible to get data on what distance from the school gates previously admitted pupils have lived for the past few years of a particular primary school's admissions?

We live 1 mile, in a straight line from our door to the primary gates (this is what is quoted in the admissions policy as the way to calculate distance for admissions) of the primary that we would really like our DD to go to.

I want to know if pupils in the past have been admitted who live this far away, so I know if there will be any chance that DD may get into this particular school.

If the above actually makes sense to anyone but me, and you know any answers, they'd be much appreciated.

Thank you.

It should be in your local council website. We have a furthest admissions table that shows how far out it goes for the last three years.

On your LEA web site. Our LEA publish the previous then current year. I had the 4 years prior as I saved them. I am sure the LEA would give you the data. In some areas a mile would be close but in cities most catchments are tiny e .g. 0.2 miles

Thank you.

And things can change rapidly. This year one local school opened up a second form (60 instead of 30 kids) and ALL local schools had much larger 'catchment'. The specific school which increased its numbers (Ofsted 'good'), went from 0.4km to not filling all places... others surrounding it went from 0.7km to 2.8km, and similar, or didn't fill up either, despite always having been oversubscribed in recent years.

Totally agree - one of our local schools went from 0.55 mile this year to 0.4 and another went the other way from 0.4 to 0.7 due to extra class. This may not seem much, but in cities it's a big difference. Others went from having places to being over subscribed. It's hard to predict how many siblings there will be or how many sets of twins etc

I found last year's data. 60 places, 69 applications. 23 allocated to siblings, 37 by distance. The furthest distance away was 1.34 miles. We are 0.9 miles.

Not sure whether that is reassuring or not. Wish they had the data for more years on the council website.

Our council publish stats for the last few years on their website so I'd check there in the first instance. It's useful info but obviously doesn't take into account natural variations due to a higher or lower than normal sibling intake for example, or a reduction in applications to the school. This year our first choice and allocated school increased their PAN to 20 from 17 yet nearest school under rule 6 (closest not nearest school) but max distance remained similar to previous year. Even more unusual was our local schools sibling intake was massively reduced as was number of applications (no doubt parents fed up of not getting kids in!) that their catchment doubled from 400m to 800m for the first time in 5 years.

If it's not on the website then give the LEA a call they sould be able to tell you. Admissions distance can vary hugely year on year as others have said. Data you have sounds good but our school admission distance has gone from just under half a mile in 2012 to around 1.3 miles in 2013 and back below half a mile for this year.

Sounds good to me but they is no crystal ball sadly. It's not very over subscribed. Where I am it would be 220 applicants for 60 places, 350 for 90 and 200 for 30 etc
Ask LEA for previous years etc

I emailed the LEA and they have replied with the below information:

2013 – 61 allocated. Last distance 1.349miles (straight line)

2012 – 60 allocated. Last distance 1.363miles (straight line)

2011 – 60 allocated. Last distance 0.625miles (straight line)

According to the LEA calculator: the straight line distance from our home address to the primary school is 0.823miles.

This makes me nervous as, although she may have got a place in 2012 & 2013, she would not have got a place in 2011.

Is there any way of forecasting expected admission numbers using birth rates in the local area etc? If so, how would you find the info?

I realise I seem to be taking this a little seriously, but it may impact on our housing decisions.

I am not sure what else you can do. Check if any new housing has been built? Ask school if they know why 2011 was so low? With ours there was a year which had tons of siblings due to previous bulge class. My DC1 has 5 sets of twins in her year and there is no way school could have predicted that !!! You are not unusual in your quest

OP, I think whatever other data you get hold of, you can not be confident that your daughter will get a place at the school on the basis of your current address. Even if you do manage to establish that the birth rate for your daughter's year is low and that no additional housing has been built recently nearer to the school than your own house, demand could still be influenced by other factors, eg if another local school is perceived as becoming less good, that could have a knock on effect for demand for places at the school you want. I think you just have to plan on the basis that you can't be sure of getting the school you want if you stay at your current address. So it's probably sensible to think about what school your daughter would be likely to be offered if you don't get your first choice, and think about whether that would be a disaster or something you could live with.

I think pp is right, as so many factors influence it and school reputations change fast. If the next nearest school got a RI ofsted you can guarantee that there would be a stampede away from it ( righting or wrongly). You need to look at all the options in the area and draw up a list of acceptable other options - but visit and do not rely on ofsted or others. Are there other schools that children nearer currently choose too? We have 2 faith and 3 non faith near us. 3 outstanding and good and one RI. The application numbers mirror it. Unless you move into the play ground, moving can up your odds but never guarantee a place.

There is absolutely no guarantee. It may well be that 2012/13 were low sibling years, or that 2011 was a high sibling year. There are numerous factors that affect admissions, including siblings, reputation, new builds etc.

I have a fairly similar story to yours. Our first choice school was a 2 form 60 intake. In the previous 5 years the furthest distance offered was approx. 1.1 mile - the LA said that, on distance, we would have got in every year. We were 0.82(something) mile away and did not receive an offer. In fact, we were 8th on the waiting list! This was for 2011 intake which I believe is one of the high birth rate years.

In the end, it didn't matter as we moved during the summer holidays and DD got into our catchment village school. However, we now have a similar issue again; DS is due to start in 2015 and we have calculated there are 10 catchment siblings alone for a school with a PAN of 8!

The distances given are for places offered on National Offer Day. Often waiting list places become available through the summer and the distance extends a little.

Also check which category the last place was offered in, as this makes a difference. If say the admissions categories are: 1. Local Authority; 2. Exceptional circumstance; 3. Siblings; 4 Children for whom the school is nearest school; 5. Other applicants, then you may find that in 2012 & 2013 the last place offered was for category 4 children and in 2011 the last place offered was at category 5. If that is the case and this is your nearest school then you are category 4 and you would have still got in during 2011. So you need a little bit more info before interpreting the data........

Plus they should be able to tell you the info for 2014 admissions now as well.