Help understanding expected progress through the NC levels

[butterflylioness]

Year 1 DD has been assessed 2b in reading, writing and maths. I have been looking into what this means over and above knowing it's good (as her teacher put it).

I am surprised by what I've read and wonder if I'm really understanding progress through the levels - can anyone who gets this stuff help?

First thing, the way I've read it, is that a child getting a 2b KS1 and 4b KS2 is then predicted to get a C in GCSE. Is that right? How has someone reached this conclusion and what evidence is it based on? Is it true that only children getting level 5 and 6 at the end of KS2 are 'predicted' to get As and A*s? I'm not sure why this shocks me but it does.

If teacher's correct and DD is 2b now how 'should' DD progress? I think at KS1 it's a level a year (not sure though) & KS2 two sublevels? Is that 3b at end of year 1 and 4c at the end of year 2 then? And levels 5/6 for year
6 perhaps?

I know it may not work like that in practice but is that what a teacher would be aiming for? I don't want to bother DD's teacher with having to explain this to me & too embarressed in RL but I know some MNs really get the way levels work.

Firstly, levels aside she is doing brilliantly.

She should get a level 3 at ks1 which means the school would be hoping for her to get level 5 or higher at ks2.

There is research which shows children performing at ks2 at national average go on to get c and above, which makes sense if you think about it. However, as we all know children's development can peak and plateau. It is perfectly possible for children who achieve level 1 at ks1 to get good 4a by ks2. So obviously same applies from ks2 to gcse.

The assessment process is changing under curriculum 2014 and it will not be levels anyway but a number on a scale up to 100 which is 'secondary ready' standard. Don't ask!

Well done to your dd... :)

• A good level 4...

2b at KS1, 4b at KS2 and 6b at KS3 ( end of yr 9) are the expected levels for the average child, sort of thresholds really. These are a way of predicting outcomes and highlighting areas of difficulty where children maybe falling behind. They are spaced out to ensure a steady progression through school and eventual success at GCSE. It is a way of keeping children on track and the evidence is that statistically, children do indeed make that progress.

There are 3 sub levels per level so in the juniors to get from a 2b to a 4b the average child would have to progress 1.5 sub levels a year (to get the 6 sub levels). 2 sub levels progress in a year is good and would mean accelerated progress (because you would make more than 2 levels progress so a 2b would be a 5c with 8 sub levels progress).

As to how your DD might progress chances are she will leave the Infants with a level 3 which is good and if her progress continues she will be a sound level 5 in Yr 6.

Agree that progress is not always even though. I can see it in my boys. For example, my DS2 is currently in Yr 5 and did 5 sub levels progress in Yr 3 and 4 but I don't expect him to do the same again in yrs 5 and 6. He might do but I have no expectations as I know that he is unlikely to carry on that rate of progress. He is more likely to the 1.5 sub levels expected.

Yes children getting level 5 and 6 at KS 2 are more likely to get A's and A although I am not sure they are predicted to get that on the basis of their KS2 results, more on the basis of work at secondary. I did see a chart not so long ago for DS1's school (he is in Yr9) which shows where a child would be at the end of each year if they made the expected progress and you could track the KS2 results through to final GCSE grades. Those who got level 5's at KS1 did indeed get more A's and A's (about 80% I think but don't quote me.) The rest got B's and nobody failed but the vast majority of the 4b's passed GSCE with a C or above too so that is what is expected.

Your DD is doing very well butterflylioness

My DD is a 2A in reading and a 2B in writing ( also yr1).

I have been told her target is a 3C for end of yr1 and a 3A end of yr2.

Thanks everyone that's all really helpful info

I realise that things may shift with the new curriculum changes and also wonder how anyone is expected to have a sense of their DCs progress if schools can teach different things at different times within a keystage and make up their own progress monitoring ... but maybe that's the point!

Schools will still have to follow the new curriculum (just as they now follow the old curriculum) only it won't be assessed as it is now.

In the last news report I saw on the issue of GCSE results, 80% of children achieving a level 5 at KS2 went on to get an A* to B grade at GCSE. It didn't say about children getting a level 4. This makes sense as all children are expected to get a level 4 at KS2, children aren't expected to get A and B grades at GCSE - that is above average.