Admission - the crisis point in some areas will come far sooner than in 10 years time. The crisis point in my town is going to cone in September 2015, for both Primary and Secondary at the same time.
We will be 157 places short in my end of town for Primary, and 45 short in the other end of town - so nowhere to even send the DC's from this end of town.
These are pupils that will not get a Reception place in our town at all. The current solution (as the new primary is delayed and will now not be open on time) is to taxi these 4yo's, without their parents, to the next town over, 30 miles away, to 2 schools in Special Measures...
And for Secondary, our town will be 120 places short in my end of the town, and 50 short in the other end.
There is meant to be a new Secondary opening, as a second site of an existing school - but it's also running late and won't be open in time for the 2015 intake.
They haven't come up with a solution for this yet...
Why does this bother me, and why am I so interested in these facts? Because DS2 goes into Y7 in September 2015, and DS3 starts Reception at the same time...
And if you want to talk about placement shortages, there are already estimates that our town will be 70 places short for DC's requiring placement at SN school...
So should be great fun for everyone.
I accept that in 10 years time, there will be another massive shortfall of Secondary places, to allow for those born in the 2010-2011 Academic year, but it's not the immediate concern in my town!!