Predicting y6 levels based on y3?

[Aranea]

I've just been given DD's levels for this point in year 3. Does anyone know what she would be expected to be working towards at the end of KS2, based on these? She's 3a for literacy and 3b for maths.

Thanks!

Level 5 I should think. But children don't necessarily perform in a linear way.

Thank you

Depends on how hard your dd works. In theory she should make two levels progress between the end of year 2 and year 6. Some children make more progress and some make less.

Plus by the time she gets to y6 national curriculum levels will have been scrapped. (True)

Thanks, that's helpful to know.

X-post itchy - eh??? Why?

Sorry - went away into RL for a bit.

They're being scrapped. Sposed to be under consultation at the moment but it's scheduled for 2015.

Why? Be suss they're devisive & not fit for purpose. They served as a benchmark that escaped from 'typical age' standards but when sub-levels were imposed on them, they became a nonsense.

We've just been conditioned to accept their relevance & importance thus making it hard to get our heads around any alternatives. Replacement bench-marking has not been decided in yet but many secondaries are looking at getting to grips with a 'through' system based on GCSE grades right from Y7.

New NC propsed frameworks for KS1&2 don't refer to levels at all; instead it's skills attained for each year, with a kind of 'roll-over' necessary if kids don't achieve all the standards.

Excuse idiotic iPhone typos

Can I hi-jack a little... I just looked back and saw my child's levels at start of year 4 (so presume this really relates to end of year 3 ?).
Now in yr 6.

Just wondering, if a child was progressing in a "normal/average" fashion what level in year 6 would be expected?

start of year 4: reading 4a; writing 3a; maths 4c.
year 6: ???
Quite a variation in there anyway, but what might you realistically hope or expect from these results?

Current school don't generally give levels out so I don't have the current ones, but will be asking, so would like to understand the progression the school would be aiming for.
Hope that makes sense - it barely does to me!!

Mumsnet has a basic sheet about progress through NC Levels here: www.mumsnet.com/learning/assessment/progress-through-national-curriculum-levels

This is for dibbletribble who asked about her DC's scores:

Basically, as it plays out here (and as MN describes) a school generally expects 1-2 NC sub-levels progress per year in KS2 (see other feed on whether progress is 2 or 3 NC sub-levels per year here www.mumsnet.com/Talk/primary/1708676-Is-it-3-National-curriculum-sub-levels-or-2-per-year.

So at start of Y4 4a (let's assume achived) - should finish 4b/ 4c

Y5 (at minimum starting 4b - so should achieve 5c, maybe 5b)

Y6 (at minimum starting 5c - should achieve 5b maybe 5a).

The writing score is slightly lower (3a) so that's borderline for achieving a NC Level 5 - not impossible but safer to predict high 4 at end KS2.

My gut instinct is where your DC is a 4a - that they should be a secure 5 by end of KS2. That means your child is performing above average. Obviously in a given year the number of pupils performing at NC Level 5 will vary. Only a very small percentage of pupils will be a secure Level 6.

It entirely depends on the quality of Y5/ Y6 teaching, support at home and work from your child whether your DC will achieve a NC Level 6 in English or Maths. It is possible but it just depends on so much. What I can say is there is strong likelihood of at least a NC Level 5 (which should feed through to a good start at senior school).

My understanding in this LEA (so may be different where you are) is children have to show attainment at L6 before they will be elligible for NC Level 6 SATs (info from DfE on L6 Sats here: education.gov.uk/schools/teachingandlearning/assessment/keystage2/b00208296/ks2-2013).

Perhaps teachers can confirm but my understanding is that L6 results were previously not reported but will be now. In general I'm under the impression there is a push to get pupils to NC Level 5 achievement now, rather than 4 (see recent discussions on 'secondary ready' - e.g. www.education.gov.uk/inthenews/inthenews/a00222410/new-primary-school-measures-to-raise-ambition-and-standards

HTH

So at start of Y4 4a (let's assume achived) - should finish 4b/ 4c

??

Perhaps teachers can confirm but my understanding is that L6 results were previously not reported but will be now.

A teacher assessment of L6 has always been possible, and the ARA referred to this every year in the gap in which L6 tests weren't available (2001-2012)

Sorry Feenie:

You raise a good point.

Let's make it clearer. Of course individuals were told L6 KS2 SATs test results and schools could always opt to take them.

But NC Level 6 SATs achievement will now be publically reported for all schools on DfE Schools reports/ league tables. So parents, fairly or not, will be able see if schools can get pupils to NC Level 6 successfully and fairly frequently.

This and I think mrz said on the other feed where I was asking about 2 NC sub-levels or 3 NC sub-levels per year that for Outstanding schools to remain rated outstanding the pressure is to achieve 3 NC sub-levels wherever possible (mrz comment on OFSTED & sub-level achievement for outstanding schools here: www.mumsnet.com/Talk/primary/1708676-Is-it-3-National-curriculum-sub-levels-or-2-per-year)

HTH

Does anyone know if a school is penalised for having a child sit a L6 SATs paper and fail?

Thanks

ahh - so what will happen is the same as with A/A* - level 6 will become the new level 5 ......

levels don't matter a jot in our area..... our secondary does testing for setting at the start of the second half-term - one half-term settling in time first... and "reading" and "writing" do not matter to anyone beyond primary.

Too much emphasis is placed on comparing kids - to peers, to where they are compared to national averages, how many hoops they can jump through compared to other kids....... sorry I made that one up - but if there was a level for it, I'm damn sure someone on MN would be saying "my little darling can do 6 in reception - is that good??"

Does anyone know if a school is penalised for having a child sit a L6 SATs paper and fail?

No, they aren't. Schools are supposed to enter children working at a level 6 only, but last year there seemed to be a lot of letting level 5 children 'have a go', which was a misuse of the test. But schools are not penalised for that, no.

Of course individuals were told L6 KS2 SATs test results and schools could always opt to take them.

That isn't what I said. I said that a teacher assessment (which has a weighting of 50% alongside test results) of level 6 was always possible, even in the interim years where the test did not exist.

Y6 children receive a test and a teacher assessment result for reading and Maths (and writing prior to 2012) and the teacher assessment could always be a level 6. The teacher assessment is reported to the LEA, and in turn to the DfE, and also has to be reported as school wide data and national data to Y6 parents by law (in this table, there has always been a section to include level 6 data) - and for a short while was reported in the league tables also.

I take your point that the return of the level 6 test will make this information more transparent to parents in other year groups/prospective parents.