70% of 70,000 pupils studied regularly plateau or move backwardsd in KS2 between the point where they are working at end of summer Term and what they are working at end of Autumn Term. Indeed the study opted to record this as Summer to Autumn transition (i.e. end summer term score to end Autumn term score - so across school year boundary). They don't plateau Autumn to Spring or Spring to Summer terms - but progress on average (1 - 2 NC sub-level). (see Annexe 5 data in report link below for full data)
Surely if children do not progress predictably as you both suggest (mrz & Feenie) please explain why it is absolutely normal at precisely this point every year (and I fear I do class 70% of the time 0 progress or -1 progress in NC sub-levels Y3/Y4, Y4/ Y5 and Y5/ Y6 transition as 'frequent'). It appears that the score at the end of summer term is repeated in Autumn term for 49,000 children out of the 70,000 children followed in total in this study from 10 LEAs.
Report link here: www.education.gov.uk/publications/eOrderingDownload/DFE-RR096.pdf
Reports key findings:
5 Learning Pathways: Individual Progress Patterns over Time
Key Findings
? For many pupils, progress during Key Stages 2 and 3 is not linear and
continuous; episodes of regression to an earlier level of attainment, or
remaining at the same level for a period, are part of the norm.
? Patterns of progress are highly individual; there is low concentration of
pupils into one pathway or another, especially in reading and writing.
? The more progress a pupil made in the previous term, the less likely they
are to make progress the following term, and vice versa. A recurrent theme through chapters 1-4 has been that progress during Key Stages 2 and 3, for many pupils is not linear and continuous, and that episodes of regression to an earlier level of attainment, or remaining at the same level for a period, are not uncommon; the latter are in fact part of the norm.
5.1 Progress by Prior Progress
Figures 5.1 and 5.2 show that the more progress a pupil made in the previous term, the less likely they are to make any progress in the next term, and the more likely they are to drop backwards. The reverse is also true; over 80% of pupils who dropped backwards the previous term made progress the next term, and over 70% of them made more than one sub-level of progress. The pattern is consistent across subjects and years, with similar distributions occurring for the alternate subject/year group combinations, and also for comparisons of progress in years 4-5 and 7-8 (for additional charts, please see annex 5).
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By all means please see this pattern as typical and nothing unusual. But please also allow me to be very suspicious of the periodic nature of this data - whereby plateaus normallly occur at the summer/ autumn transition. Coupled with our school telling children previously working to NC sub-level Xa, Xb or Xc that they will continue to work at that sub-level but all APP points will be gathered again anew - you can see why I might believe there is room to fiddle in the system at this summer to autumn term transition.
If you are obliged to honour achievement (presumably APP points recorded) from previous year and work from there at your schools - wonderful! But the pattern in this study & observation in this LEA (personal & from freinds experiences) suggests that there could well be room for manoeuvre. The fact this plateau doesn't occur Autumn to Spring or Spring - Autumn and given that we all accept children don't progress linearly - means that the pattern is picking up this 'stall' in progress between end of previous school year and start of current school year.
All I said is this 'stall' in NC Levels or reversal normally happens (data from report cited above supports that view I think).
OFSTED had absolutely no issue with our school on how they record progress - so one presumes how they are handling it is acceptable. I haven't bothered to report my school because my view is this is the system and this Summer Term/ Autumn term transition is the point where this fiddle can most easily take place. It makes perfect sense - it makes a teacher's life that bit easier (i.e. not having to do a lot of work to attain first NC sub-level, if repeated or moved down 1 sub-level) and I don't think the precise level of APP points is that closely tracked between years but I admit I don't know.
My suspicion is that this means there is scope to fiddle the system. In principle starting progress afresh at NC sub-level (no APP points criteria ticked at start of new school year regardless of whether previous teacher observed them or not) could be happening - and my evidence is that it is happening at our school (where parents are told at Autumn parent/ teache rmeetings that all APP criteria start fresh again at start of school year) and friends have suggested similar occurs at their schools in this LEA. Many have posted at MN their surprise to find their DC is working to the same sub-level again - so I'm fairly clear this isn't just me.
Now if you (Feenie, mrz or other teachers) are some how obliged to honour the APP points/ NC sub-level reported at end of previous year by the previous teacher and work from there (so either DC has attained 4c (for example) or DC has attained 15 out of x many APP points toward 4c) then let me know. If this is a legal requirement again let me know. But I suspect this is a rather grey area.