census results - are school council planners going to take them into account?

[sanam2010]

I am getting a bit worried about the availability of school places and the size of catchment areas in London in a few years time. Looking at the census results, London population seems to have grown far beyond what statisticians and politicians had expected, and looking at my borough for example, I could see that the number of 0-4 year olds has exploded when compared to 5-9 year olds (they give a breakdown of the population pyramid).

So to me that means they will have to massively expand primary schools over the next year by opening free schools and adding capacity to existing primary schools.

Does any one know if LEAs are working on this? Are they aware that not only are London state school places stretched already, but that in 2-3 years time demand for Reception places in many London boroughs will jump by 30% or more? I haven't read about planned capacity but how can we make sure this gets addressed?

The problem, I think, is not so much of complete ignorance of the issue, but of funding. LEAs just don't have the money to build new schools, so the way they address it is by putting in bulge classes when the problem actually arises; they have no way of knowing, for example, how many of those 0-4 year olds will move out of area or go private. They can make an educated guess, but that's all. So they address the problem the only way they realistically can, by squeezing more children into the existing space until this becomes obviously untenable. Expanding a school permanently is a long and expensive job (consultations, planning, building etc) so they won't undertake it lightly.

LEAs can no longer build new schools, unless there is no free school or academy chain who wants to. Unfortunately, free schools tend to set themselves up wherever they feel like it/can get planning permission to, and have no responsibility whatsoever to respond to local need. Academies also have no responsibility to respond to local needs. What would useful is for areas to have a dedicated authority with detailed info about census results, current schools, access to budgets etc. Oh, hang on a moment, they're LEAs, which the Coalition government are cutting to the bone and devolving power from.

There is a huge crisis in reception places brewing - some 70,000+ needed over the next 4 years, and some areas will encounter additional problems due to the HB caps.

There is no coherent strategy to respond to any of this and there will be an awful lot of problems, I'm afraid.

They are aware.

They predict school places by how many kids are born 4 years ago. they know for 4 years it's going to be a high birth rate year.

However, that's all they know. They don't know how the population will change in 4 years, or how many kids will want to go to a state school.

But they do know that they're going to need a lot more places.

tiggytape is right that there is very often local opposition to forcing existing schools to expand. In the case of maintained schools, the LEA can ultimately force them to which is unpopular with parents with children already at the school but obviously a relief for those desperate for a reception place!

Michael Gove can grant permission for free schools or academies or open or pull the plug on funding, but can't insist that one opens in an area where there is need. Given that local authorities which only manage a hundred or so schools at the most (ours in London has about 60 schools) get caught out with more applicants than places every year at the moment, is is impossible to imagine how the school place crisis will be managed centrally.

Especially when there is no coherent strategy to do so.

As an example, in my London borough there were sufficient places for all those who applied last year, with a few places left over (our neighbour moved in after school allocations and got a place in a local school). By January, the borough had to open 2 reception bulge classes because more children had moved into the area. The local authority funded 2 schools to take another class.

There seems to have been an extraordinary lack of forethought as to what will happen when schools are 'autonomous from local control' and there is no locally accountable body to ensure that all children are offered a school place.

thank you for your answers and wow, these stories are not reassuring. Incredible example from your borough, Rosebud05. It makes me really worried about what's going to happen - saving for private school seems to be the only way out! I still hope that the problem becomes so apparent very soon that they manage to take some measures over the next years, fingers crossed!! But with budgets getting cut really hard to see how they can manage to expand.

Its a problem I worry about too. We are 439 metres from a big primary school in London (I've checked!). Usually the catchment area is much wider than that (3 form entry) but certainly no guarantees for the future. Can't afford private so would be forced to accept whatever the LEA can offer with potential commuting issues (we both work long hours). Must be lots of others like me in the same position! Its not reassuring but I hope for he best.

This isn't just a London problem, we are in Tameside and the same thing has been happening since the 2005/6 birth cohort applied for reception. It is getting worse every year. They are adding bulge classes where possible and at DS' school yet more building work to address the problem. (they only just finished a whole school revamp and didn't address this problem so I think we can safely say that there has been little forethought about the problem of accommodating more children.)

I am aware that when DS' year come to high school age there is a massive shortfall of places that is not being addressed by our wonderful "excellent" council.

My (London) borough does plan its provision and looks like things like the birth rate. As others have said, though, there are still issues around funding; lack of space for new schools/extra classes in existing schools; and further, hard to predict pressures from inward migration (events overseas can trigger sudden patterns of movement) and the economic situation meaning that more or fewer parents opt for private education.

The short and sweet answer is no, they don't take it into account.

My town in Essex has had ever increasing Primary numbers since the 2003/04 intake (which my DS2 is in), and have been putting on bulge classes and travelling pupils literally across the town (which is city sized) for a Primary place.

They have not addresses the fact that due to house building ALL at one end of the town (biggest house building program in the SE), literally THOUSANDS of new family sized homes, as well a cohort ever approaching Secondary age that already consists of bulge classes, that they are going to be drastically short of Secondary places in just over 2 years time.

And as if that wasn't enough, my LA knows that it will be at LEAST 157 places short for the Reception intake for children born in 2010/2011, yet have no cohesive plan other than to send them by taxi to the next town 30 MILES away as the village schools in between will already be oversubscribed.

And that 157 figure is only based on the houses already built with known DC's that age in (my LA identifies the DC's living in the area from GP lists), it doesn't include the possibly hundreds more that will be living here by September 2015 when these children start school.

Which also happens to be the SAME year that the previous huge intake of 2003/2004 born DC's are applying for Secondaries that will be short on spaces.

All the current primaries, and all the current Secondaries have expanded to the maximum intakes that their site allows, so without a new primary (or three!) AND a new Secondary, our large town is heading for a perfect storm in September 2015, with both Primary AND Secondary applications...

We have a problem with house building programs too, our local council has torn down a lot of primary schools and built family housing in its stead.

It's a mess and only going to get worse.

(I meant to put this in my previous post)

What people need to be asking is what the LAs have done or are doing with the extra funding that has been made available by DfE for new school places over the next 4 years. Not all LAs got funding and the funding did depend on the expected rise in school numbers but most London LAs got extra funding.
This extra funding is not going to deal with all the problems but to me the issue is that at present this extra funding does not seem to being translated into extra classrooms and extra schools at the rate that is needed.
When it comes to big new estates, again the LA should have as part of the planning permission sorted out what the number of houses means in terms of school pupils. Different LAs have different calculations for working this out but mine roughly translates 900 houses as equal to a 1 form entry school of 210 pupil primary school, with a similar number of secondary school pupils. The problem for me is that 900 houses do not often have only about 450 children, if they are 3 and 4 bedroomed houses, they translate into 3 or 4 times that number of children. Most new estates have to provide funding for amenities under what is called section 106 and this should include schools. In the past that would be when the LA would usually put in a new primary school into a big new estate. Now however as Mr Gove has decided that all new schools should be free schools, I don't know how that is going to happen.

Where I live planning permission has just been given for 5000 new houses on a proviso that a new primary school will be built as well.
In this scenario which gets built first - the houses or the school?
If th school doesn't get built until after the houses, where do the children go to school before it's built?
Our local infants, juniors and primaries are already bursting at the seams with one school having a bulge class this year.
I'm just glad that my youngest is 8 because I would hate to be starting the whole school process where I live!

Usually the houses get built and the school follows 2-10 years later IME of my town...

Its a mess and one thats easily forseen.

Im outskirts bristol.

bristol was given extra money by dept of educayion as we have a schools crisis with 300kids not getting any of their 3rd places at primary schols last few years.

My suberbs not as bad as city areas.

quite a few on my estate travel to nearby village schools through choice not neccesity.

Most of new builds nearly all round here are classed as executive 4-5beds houses.

I would say every other house has kids.

The catchments have got so small we couldent get into our nearear best perfoming state school.

A nearby suburb which is entirly new build has 2brand new schools

one has taken in 3intakes of 90 for some years this has created issues with siblings now intake reduced seeing siblings now split between 2schools.

The other im puzzled only has single 30intake and to my knowledge not forced a bulge class.

In a few years I suspect we will have a secondry shortage as the 2nearest secondrys full if all the new build estates theres about 3in my suburb and the other area next to us is expanded its inevitable that we need a new secodry our mp agreed with me at time of election not heard a thing since apart from they wnat to build even more new houses and no extra schools.

Yes the las and planning can be incompetant.
But when you think how much profit devlopers make.
maybe the devoper ie westbury or david wilson should build a school per estate so privatly built and gifted to the estate,

Imagine as potential buyer of these luxury homes that a special school being built would be a plus point.

Has gove really banned all la from building new schools?as free schools i thourght was extra and not always based on areas of need . we have 1 open in area quite distance from me any new school heres a bonus as she so short,

Im dreading secondry school application time.