Shortage of primary school places in London - will it get worse before it gets better?

[lambinapram]

We are looking to move to Redbridge to be near good primary schools for when our DC starts school in 2014. We need to move soon as we are spilling out of our little house.

I've just contacted the LA and some of the last distances allocated have nearly halved in the space of one year! The 4 schools we are interested in have gone from 2011 to 2012 in miles:

0.62 to 0.498
1.005 to 0.852
1.404 to 0.799
0.917 to 0.787

All these schools are 'good' with one rated 'outstanding'.

How close do you think we will need to live in to get into one of these schools? Are the LA's addressing the shortage problems or will get worse over the next two years? We want to avoid being stuck in a catchment black hole as all these schools are all fairly near each other.

Thanks in advance for any advice/opinions.

you need the birth rate figures really

but I'd say it's going to get worse

Sorry, but there's a predicted shortfall of 70,000 reception places over the next four years (estimates vary but basically loads).

LAs, especially in urban areas, often don't know how many applicants there will be in a particular year. Bulge classes are often established after allocations.

Since you are asking specifically about Redbridge, they had 24,152 pupils in primary schools at the 2011 census. That was predicted to rise to 25,072 this year and 26,057 next. By 2015/6 the figure is predicted to be 28,661. These figures are from DfE predictions, which are based on projections from the Office for National Statistics.

In May last year Redbridge had 52 primary schools with a total of 24,619 places. So the situation is going to get worse unless existing schools expand or new schools are opened. Sorry. Unfortunately most London boroughs have a problem, some worse than Redbridge.

Wow, I never knew things were that bad, surely the LA's are aware of these numbers and will make provisions?

The most important factor imo is the number of siblings per space, where siblings get priority over non siblings. For example for ds who is 2014 there are already about 25 siblings for 30 school places at dd's school, plus however many are joining this and next sept. Even if you move next door to our school (not in London) you probably wouldn't get a place, as LEA already decided against bulge classes for that year. The schools may not yet know, but might be worth ringing and asking.

I live in Redbridge and it is going to get worse I fear. There are plans for about 4 primary schools to expand but in the case of dcs school they only have enough space to increase by 1 form per year. There are no plans to actually build a new primary school but the LA will/have taken over a school in Barkingside (Ilford Jewish Primary) which is moving to another location within a secondary school grounds. There are children on my road who live within 5 minutes of our local school but who travel 20 mins by car to another school at the other end of the borough. The problem however extends to neighbouring boroughs such as Havering and Barking and Dagenham.

Thanks for the replies. I'll see if I can find out more info about planned bulge classes.

It is also worth considering where they have previously added bulge classes as those schools are likely to experience a much higher number of siblings applying in following years. For example a buldge class in a one form entry school for this September returning back to one form entry next year could result nearly all (if not all) applications going to siblings in 2014.

The question that somebody needs to ask of the council is what they intend to do in terms of the expected increase of pupils, as PRH has detailed. That is an extra 3600 pupils across the primary schools. They will be spread across all 7 year groups but more likely to be more at the bottom end. So they are likely to need a minimum of 500 extra places in reception and more likely at least double that. That is an awful lot of extra classes and is not practical.
What is needed is new three form entry primary schools (90 places per year group) but they need building now. That is why the government made a very substantial amount of funding available across LAs. Could I suggest that you ask Redbridge council what they are doing with the extra £43,661,028 funding they were allocated. That should be enough for about 15 such large primary schools

Thanks Admission. Considering that Fran said there are no plans for any new schools that is worrying!

I see redbridge also got the most out of the 500M allocation:
www.buildingschools.co.uk/files/full_breakdown_of_500m_funding_for_schools.pdf

We're central London. The catchment in 2011 for the schools that we would like to send DS to were; 0.29, 0.317 and 0.38 miles respectively. We're about equidistant from them all at about 0.4 miles away, according to the Borough. They each have a sibling policy (DS is an only) so that's going to account for 25 out of 30 places at least.

A very nice family has just moved in a few houses along the road from us. Nearer the school. My first thought was; "Bugger. Another place gone."

OP, you are not alone.

Agree with everyone else, it will get worse. Also, bulge classes will really impact sibling places. A school taking on bulge classes will mean lots of extra siblings, particularly 2 and 3 years down the line.

It is scary how many black holes there are/will be. The thing is missing out on a local place will affect eldest children so parents being offered places miles away will often have extra small children in tow. I wonder how many parents will reluctantly home ed because they can't get kids to school and can't afford to move. Also, private schools are also full up. The wait list is closed at my local private school.

I think a lot of parents don't realise how bad the situation is until they miss out on a local place for their child.

We haven't actually moved to Redbridge yet...but I presume its going to be just as bad it other boroughs anyway?

In our school last year only 1 child got a place on distance. There were 49 siblings and 10 church places. The siblings were mainly from the 2 bulge years in y2 and 3. But even without bulge classes the siblings seem to hover between 40 and 50 every year out of a total of 60 places. A new primary school is opening this year in our area (southwest london). But the planned new secondary school has been cancelled so it will be chaos in a few years time at secondary level.

www.thisislocallondon.co.uk/whereilive/localheadlines/9664506.SOUTH_WOODFORD__Families_upset_at_school_place_rejection/

Articles like this are concerning.

FranSanDisco is right in saying that the problem is widespread and extends in nearby boroughs. As I have said before the council in B&D keep building more and more blocks of flats near the town centre. That's where the problem with school places is at its worst even though some local schools have doubled their capacity in the last 5 years permenantly by building new classes and not just by adding bulge classes! They have demolished or are planning to demolish numerous council properties in order to build even more high rise blocks of flats! When the new tenants arrive with their families the problem is going to get even worse as they haven't planned to build another school. In fact I have seen council documents published on their website saying that building a primary near the town centre is not good for the children as there is too much noise, pollution etc. I guess the councilors find it much more profitable to sell council land freed by council properties demolition to private developers. It's good for the residents seeing the big impoverishment and illiteracy rates according to the council apparently

I suspect that Redbridge haven't done much either having seen even a sky scraper (?) in Ilford where foreign politicians have invested huge amounts of money that they have stolen from their own citizens ...

OP, I would suggest moving next at the school gates if possible!! And as others have already said you can check how many children for each school were admitted on a sibling basis.

Thanks lambinapram (and nice nickname btw!). Does anyone know if the amount given to Redbridge council where the OP wants to move to will help address the problem or is it too little? I honestly think that the solution in many cases is building new schools as the shortage of places is really big. But this would require much more money that I guess the council has to find.

And as always one of the comments "With mass unlimited uncontrolled immigration and falure of the authorities to plan and react there is a shortage of everything;schools,w ater,hospital beds etc etc?. It's not that SOMEBODY had to live in those new developments and the council would have had to create new school places ANYWAY irregardless of where they came from, is it? It's not about giving planning permission although you know that families with school age children will move there, is it?

I was referring to a comment posted at the link lambinapram posted.

The Guardian wrote an article about this very issue this weekend. We live just beside a black hole - just ridiculously strange that people could be buying a house in one street, thinking that they have a 'choice' of 3 local schools when actually they live too far away from any of them and will probably be offered a school in a dodgy area 1.8 miles away instead. The government are just putting their heads in the sand and always have done with this issue - as soon as the birthrate went up they should have been planning for this.

Great link MrsJamin - thanks!