I'm already worried about 16mo DS3's year group. Ours is an LEA that has done a bit of forward planning, and already knows that they will be 157+ places short ON ONE ESTATE for his year.
They were intending to open a brand new, 3FE school that was 4-18. However, they have now admitted that due to delays from developers, it will be at least a year late, and won't take that intake at all!
One school out of the six local ones CAN take a bulge class, as their current bulge class will have left that July - but the school is becoming an Academy this September, and the HT is adamant that he then can't be forced to take a bulge class...
Even if they do, there will still be 127+ places short, and no other local schools can expand. They are already talking about putting DC in schools across town, but if you don't drive, it is a 40 minute bus journey to town (1hr20 min in morning rush hour), then another 35 mins to the other side of town (1 hr in rush hour). So that's a journey of between 1hr15 mins and 2hr20 mins.
I won't be accepting a place I have to travel to like that, and not will any of the non-drivers I know!
And the info is reliable, it's from the LA's Strategic Planning Document for Education.
They might be able to ship 30-60 across town like that, but they are talking about Allocating the rest to schools in the next town over. 30 fucking miles away. AND my LEA will only pay transport costs if the school allocated is between 2 and 6 miles away. Anything over that and you have to find the cost yourself. Which is not going to happen on a 30 mile school run when you don't drive!
Seeing that there are DC with no school place offered is filling me with dread...