primary school catchment area: massive shrinkage

[writtenguarantee]

Hello,

We just applied for primary schools for our DD and only got our fourth choice. I have read horror stories here from other people and I really feel for them (people getting poor schools, or school far away). We are in an ok position as our fourth choice is a good school (as rated by OFSTED) and I also got a really good feel visiting the school. Also, the school is not that far away.

The issue is that I REALLY liked our first choice. The problem is that everyone else in our neighbourhood does as well (it is rated outstanding by OFSTED). Anyway, we would have gotten in last year by a comfortable margin (the radius last year was .360 miles and we live .328), but this year the area has shrunk to .275 (or .278) miles. That may not sound like a big change, but that is less than 60% of the area from last year. So, while we would have gotten in first round last year, we are now 26 on the waiting list. I don't have high hopes.

I have thought and read that there is a minor boom in applications this year (we live in Islington in London), but can that really explain such a shift? Are there likely many cheats? If so, would they be caught? Thinking about the possibility of cheats of course angers me at this point. I don't have any evidence there are any, and the school has been well regarded for years, making the case that there wouldn't all of the sudden be more cheats now than last year.

Not sure I can do anything about this except wait and hope.

There has been a massive baby boom in recent years, from about 2003 onwards I believe. So, many children of reception age now are likely to have an older sibling 2 or 3 school years above ... results in more siblings being offered places and the perception that catchment areas are shrinking.

And of course these stupid Ofsted ratings mean that people will move, sheep-like, to be close to an Outstanding school.

Ooo which schools? We're in Islington too. There is massive movement in the area because a lot of people move into private at various points or move out to the suburbs/country as they're children get a bit older or the eldest child is going to secondary. So I wouldn't give up hope that at some point you'll get your top choice.
As to the boom, these catchments vary massively often due to something arbitrary like number of siblings (there were two sets of sibling twins in my dd's year which would skew the numbers for starters). 0.1 mile variance isn't that big in a densely populated area.

It does happen. When dd1 started reception there were only two thirds of the places taken by first place. School up the road had excess and a lot ended up at her school.

18 months later they had an outstanding ofsted and since then they've been oversubscribed by half as much again at least.

The school up the road that used to have excess now doesn't fill the spaces with first choice applicants-they get about half.

The school up the road hasn't changed much, if at all. Her school has improved in the last few years, but it didn't change really at all between the year after her (undersubscribed) and two years after her (significantly (roughly double numbers oversubscribed)

At the junior school she's now at, got a new head and he had changed the numbers to undersubscribed by a bit to well oversubscribed, and people moving to get into it. The "rival" juniors is now struggling, having been doing very well until the change of head.

It can and does happen.

As well as the baby boom, other factors can be inward mobility (there may well be more people moving into the borough than there are leaving it) and the effect of bulge class a couple of years ahead on the sibling intake. Then there is the tendency to build flats rather than houses in urban areas, and convert houses into flats, thereby increasing the population density. And then too there's the economic climate encouraging some people who might otherwise have chosen independent schools to stay in the state system.

Most London boroughs have systems to weed out the most flagrant cheats, but it will always (I suspect) be possible to play the system but nevertheless comply with the letter of the admissions criteria.

@bibbitybobbitybunny and others: Siblings aren't the issue. Last year had 20 siblings, this year has 24 (so some shrinkage is expected). The intake is 60, so that doesn't seem to account for it.

@PollyParanoia: The school is Grafton.

@everyone else: I of course know this could happen, and could easily happen legitimately. However, a boom in 2003 doesn't explain it. Also, as I said, the outstanding OFSTED Is not new. So, I think that there would have to be a 2008 boom and/or a lot of people moving into the area.

I am of the opinion that the issue is likely demographic, and the possible 1-5 cheats won't make a difference as I am so far down the list.

As for councils finding cheats, I am skeptical that they are good at this.

most years families in our street are OK for our closest primary school but every so often there's a blip and it gets filled earlier on.

This year was one of those years. Put name on waiting list? Most people I know who've done this, having been quite close to the school, have got in within the first year. If you're prepared to wait that long?

In London, you are automatically put on the waiting list until December.

Anyone know how many children in London received no offer at all in the first round? I bet many of those will be in black holes, and it must be very hard to find places for them.

I would think the number is small by percentage, but large by the amount of hassle it is causing. Indeed, I hope those people find something.

DD1 goes to Grafton and though it has surpassed all my expectations of being a truly fantastic school, I would be to think that anyone would cheat to get a place there. It's not the Yerbury ,where I've heard that some families move into catchment in order to secure a place.

We are right on the edge of catchment of Grafton. The year before we applied, we would only have been in catchment by 8 metres as Grafton had a smaller catchment than the Yerbury that year . Think it's all swings and roundabouts.

I would say that 26 is pretty low on waiting list, but you never know.
Which school were you offered, btw?

The initial was at the size of Grafton's catchment this year, btw

@schoolsnightmare: wow. that sounds like a school nightmare. Sorry.

@CoucouCache: We got Hungerford. Much further than Grafton from us. And yes, Grafton's catchment has really shrunk. However, I saw Hungerford in December and I really liked it. We ranked it number four, but that was a real debate. I was taken around by the early years coordinator and I thought that she was great. So, while I am singing the blues, I know that there are people in worse situations.

As for Yerbury, I have met a cheat who got their child in years ago.

We have to repeat this saga for the 2015 entrance. Out of curiosity, if our younger child got into Grafton, and we reapply to Grafton for our older child after that, do we then fall under the sibling criteria? I am not sure we would want to do that, I am just curious.

With regards to cheats, I of course have no proof this has happened. However, would it really be so hard for determined parents? My wife and I have different last names, so we could easily each pay council tax on separate places without being detected (or perhaps not. do they record spousal information? I can't remember if this is mandatory).

As for the 2008 boom, these things only hurt if the government is unprepared for it. I guess ours is. You'd think that a coming boom would be ample justification to expand popular schools.

My children's school had a final admissions distance of 0.7 miles when we applied for DD (it is perceived as less 'desirable'; than another nearby school, though we much preferred it).

Last year, if it hadn't taken a bulge class of 30 (normal intake of 90), its final admission distance would have been 180 metres....

Only difference was birth rate - no new Ofsted in between, no significant change in the school, other schoool still seen as 'better'...

Hi @writtenguarantee. We also had Grafton as our 1st choice and would have made it in with last year's catchment. We had Drayton Pk as no 2 but failed to get any of our 6 choices. Really not that keen to take up what they offered us either (Pakeman).

It's really been so depressing finding out that our boy won't be going to the same school as all the other kids on the street - some who have managed to make it into a school we chose by virtue of living 20 metres nearer. This morning we found out that he moved 4 places down the waiting list for both mentioned schools so it looks like we will have to wait it out long term. It all feels incredibly unfair. The one good thing is that he's an August kid so don't have to legally commit until next Sep.

We are planning to appeal but realistically, don't feel too hopeful of being successful. Just all feels wrong.

It can't be taken for granted that getting a younger child into a school will propel an older sibling to the top of the waiting list. It all depends on how the school's admissions criteria are drawn up - some include all siblings in the oversubscription category for siblings, but some only give priority to younger siblings.

@Writtenguarantee - I know of one family who got an older sibling into Grafton because the younger one was offered a place in reception. And one family who didn't get older sibling in even though younger child got a place in reception.
Really depends on whether anyone leaves, I suppose.

Hi SchoolsNightmare! I am not so sure that all councils are that hot in terms of stopping cheating. In my area there is one school infamous for people renting temporarily to get a place. Families will move into flats across the road from the school on short-term rentals while maintaining their (real) home. Yes, the council may (or may not) come and check on them during admissions, but then if they move out again immediately after securing their place it seems no action is taken. I heard through the grapevine that the council even tells the renters when they can move! I have heard of many people doing this, none of them had their offer withdrawn. Even with people telling on them. It's an open secret - always the same flats - and by the time reception starts very few children still live in the intake area. The council may make noises about stopping it, but never do. I get the sense they are more scared of the pushy-middle class parents who do this, than they are of the repercussions.

I would be very surprised if the LA was telling the renters when they can move. That would be maladministration.

If the LA is aware that someone is renting to get a place they should use their correct address. Of course, that may mean they get a place anyway. If, however, the LA is allowing parents to apply from temporary addresses and not doing anything to stop it any parent who has lost out should appeal on the grounds that they have been disadvantaged because the LA has not taken reasonable steps to investigate and prevent fraudulent applications.

@peteski: Sorry to hear about your situation. Yes it does seem unfair.

You could check out Hungerford. Last year it was not oversubscribed, so it may have free places this year as well. I visited both Hungerford and Pakeman and definitely preferred Hungerford.