Do your schools collect info on number of expected siblings.

[3duracellbunnies]

Our school say there is no point as people move, but there have been bulge classes, but going back to original PAN. I have friends with pfb who I know would like their child to go to our school, but realistically in ds yr (2014) I can think of nearly enough siblings to fill the school, do you think parents should expect schools to give an estimation of siblings so people can plan? If your school does, how does it know numbers?

The school I teach at doesn't collect this information and, to be honest, I don't see how it could be done (and be accurate) without involving a lot of additional work from the office staff and constant updates.

We are in inner London, an area of fairly high mobility due in part to people moving to Bexley/Kent in anticipation of the 11+ and also as a result of various local estates being demolished and tenants being rehoused. This means that in all year groups children are constantly joining the school.

I'm not sure how useful it would be to a parent visiting the school in the Autumn, prior to Reception applications being submitted, being told that there are expected to be X siblings applying for Reception places only for a parent who visits in January to learn that as a couple of families have just joined the school there are likely to be Y siblings taking up Reception places. No doubt the school would be blamed for getting the figures 'wrong' .

Also, although siblings are often given priority, if a child is 'in care' or has the school named in a statement of special educational need, then those children will be given places before any others that may be eligible. Some of these children won't necessarily be 'in care' well in advance of the applications and statement-related decisions about the school best able to meet a child's need may well be happening right up to the last moment. It wouldn't be reasonable to expect Children's Services to definitively predict which children who will be applying for Reception in 2013/14 will be 'in care' by then or which 2-year-olds are likely to require a statement of SEN (it's not impossible but parents often have to fight for statements so asking an LA to guarantee that a particular number of children will require them is going to be problematic... and probably lead them to saying, "zero").

My own DD2 will be starting Reception in 2013. DD1 is in Y2. I know of two other Y2 children who have siblings that will start in 2013 i.e. three Y2 children who are 4-5 years older than their only sibling, taking 3/60 places (probably!). The current Y1 cohort was a bulge year so, it's not surprising that 34/60 places allocated for 2012 have gone to siblings (it was approx. 20 in previous years). Oh, and the home to school distance has reduced too - it's now 436m. DD1 didn't get in for Reception when the last place offered was nearly 700m and we are 800m (ish) - she did move schools during Reception though as it was discovered that one of the places at another local school had been obtained fraudulently, the knock-on effect was that 3 children in three local schools moved during Reception.

Coming back to this - we collect information to ensure that all children from the disadvantaged families in our catchment area have the chance to come to school, by ensuring that proper forms are filled in.

We're helping ourselves as well, because otherwise we have a very chaotic situation with children either arriving at the beginning of the year without having applied any school and expecting admission (where turning them away would simply mean a total breakdown of relations with the family and ethnic community, probably resulting in all of the children in that familyand related families being removed from education entirely. Alternatively the EWO or other agencies finally engage with the families long after the normal point of admission and we have children arriving with no prior experience of any kind of group educational setting at random points over the first two or three years of school!

So in our case it's not a case of predicting over-subscription or otherwise (historically we start off under-subscribed and end up full, though as the school has grown in size by nearly a third over the last 4 years I can imagine we will soon be over-subscribed..... which will mean that we weill have to redouble our efforts to ensure all disadvantaged families apply on time as they will have fewer 'second chances' than they do at the moment), just an attempt to ensure all children access education.

That's very much the case in my school although we do get lots of transient pupils arriving outside normal admission times (but there seems to be a model based on London/large cities that doesn't seem to recognise the transport issues relating to rural areas )

It seems a tricky situation. I think at our school it would work, on average have seen one child leave per class per year, so fairly stable population, about 150 requests (though some might be 2nd/3rd choice) for 60 places this year, going down to 30 for 2013. I can see though that it would leave the school open, and would either need to be maintained, or given as an 'indication', and of course no parent would have to declare a younger sibling so it would probably be an underestimation. Maybe I'll just keep counting pushchairs, or now that ds is a bit older I should count scooters instead!

I'm already nervous about 15mo DS3's admission to Reception in 2015! My house now falls into a 'black hole', whereby it is technically in catchment for 3 schools, which are the closest to us, but due to his year having an unprecedented level of siblings, and none of my older dc attending those 3 schools (DS2 will start Y7 when DS3 starts Reception), I am unlikely to get a place.

My LEA knows that we need another 2-form entry school at this end of town, but it is not likely to be opened until September 2016, a year after it is needed.

The school DS2 is currently at will be able to take a 'bulge' class of 30 of the 60 expected pupils who won't have a place, as DS2's year will have left, and it is a yr of 90 instead of the usual 60, so they will have a classroom and a teacher 'spare'.

However - we were out of catchment when my older dc got their places there - my 14yo DD was put there as a mid-year SEN transfer due to a house move when she was in Y2, and DS1 and DS2 followed her there as she was still a pupil there (though I had to appeal for DS2 as the catchment boundaries had changed, and he was only taken when the 'bulge class' was set up, despite having 2 siblings at the school). Now, we are way WAY out of catchment as another closer school that is my second closest school now opened two years ago.

Thing is, even the HV's are saying that DS3's year had the highest births for that 'school year' that they have seen, one in over 25 years of practice. I know that there are at least 61 SIBLINGS (who qualify as a sibling link - I know of 8 more that don't as they have dc in DS2's yr) for that year group...and I live 1.3 miles away from the school...

And DS3 won't have a sibling link anywhere due to the age gap between him and my 'next one up'. I'm almost resigned to the fact that I am going to have to have over an hour's bus journey on two buses to get to the nearest awful school that will actually have any spaces.

I don't (and can't legally, due to epilepsy) drive, so how I am meant to a) get on a bus early enough to get him to school with a 2-bus journey, and b) actually afford to pay the bus fares, is beyond me.

We aren't technically over 2 miles away from the awful school I fear DS3 will get allocated - by straight line distance, as the crow flies, we are 1.998 miles away, so no free transport. However, if measured by bus routes, we are 5.826 miles away! Even by shortest 'safe' walking route, we will be 4.277 miles away from the school - but they use straight line distance, as the crow flies, to assess free transport. Funnily enough, I do not posess a superhuman-like ability to fly over houses, or the power to walk directly through them.

The 'free' transport here consists of a bus pass FOR THE CHILD ONLY if you are LESS than 6 miles away from the allocated school as the crow flies. And it's the 'as the crow flies' that is relevant here - by the shortest CAR (road) distance, we are 2.2 miles away, so while I would get a bus pass for DS3, a 4yo can't get 2 buses and a changeover in a busy town centre alone, and the buses don't use the shortest road distance between the two! Nope, no space at ANY of the local schools for extra classrooms (except for the bulge class at one that will only take care of those IN catchment without siblings due to the high number of siblings for that yr). New school will DEFINATELY not be open on time.

At least 30 children WILL have to travel to out of area schools - all the schools involved AND the LEA know this already, and they don't take ability to drive into account when allocating the schools!

Don't get me started on the LEA's lack of planning - in between now and then, there are over 1000 new homes being built that may well push the total number of dc without a local Reception allocation up even further...But because there are places free at schools that are practically inacessible by public transport right across town on two buses, they don't give two hoots!!

. After some detective work, courtesy of Dr.Google, I have discovered that for my part of town, for Sept 2015 admissions, from the councils own school places planning document, that it is FAR FAR worse than even the gossip is. My part of town will have a deficit of 127 Reception places AT LEAST, and probably more when the new housing is taken into account. And the new school is definately earmarked to open in September 2016 - all that they have said is that given the surplus places on the other side of town, that will be sufficient to cope with half the additional capacity needed, but that some dc may have to travel out of town to the neighbouring DISTRICT.

WTactualF? The other schools are all very rural and inaccessible if you don't live in the village or drive (NO public transport that early in the morning), or are 20+ miles away in the next proper town.

I am now even more worried than I previously was. Great!

There really ARE no extra playgrounds etc to put portacabins on - the schools have already expanded so that each of them are double the size they were originally built for, and that is in the last 7 years. My current primary ( Primary A) was a 1-form entry when we moved here - all years now have an intake of 60, with a bulge class being able to be taken every 7 years at most to take the intake to 90. New primary (Primary B) opened 2 years ago - was opened as a 210 capacity, now expanded to 420, no further space for expansion. Primary C - doubled from 210 to 420 in 6 years. Primary D - no space for expansion at all, intake of just 45. Primary E - no space for expansion, intake of 60 remained constant for whole time. Primary F - no space for expansion, had same intake of 45 for the whole time I've been here. Primary G (New Primary waiting to be built) - not going to be open in time.

Formal bus service - would not be any good as the surplus places are in 3 different schools, all on different estates on the other side of town. And also, would only cover roughly 60 of those 127 pupils expected not to have a local Reception place in Sept 2015.

WTF goes on in the heads of the strategic planning authority thinking that a rising birth rate, combined with the biggest house building programme in the country, combined with dire public transport links between the North and South sides of town, and opening the new primary the year after it will be most desperately needed, would make for the perfect situation to be in? Does it NOT occur to them that this might just be a teensy problem??!! Does it not occur to them that not everyone is going to accept a school place 20+ miles away, or putting their dc in a taxi without them to go that far, or that it will just be impossible for some parents to GET their child to school if they are offered a non-local, rural school and they don't drive??!!

With 127 excess children it sounds as if even one new school won't be enough. Can you look into free school set up, they seem to be quicker to arrange if you can find an empty building next door nearby. I do really feel for those people in your situation with a larger than 'normal' age gap. It must be so hard to start again at a new school, and not constantly compare, for good or bad with other school. I know people move, change schools etc, but at least then you usually have some sort of choice to move or not.

I would try to visit local play groups, preschools etc and try to organise a lobby group. You might not be able to take it all the way I don't think I could but if you can get a team together you are more powerful. Ring paper, citing the planning document and be prepared to look sad with your ds outside the school nearest to you. Get a new e-mail account, ask paper to give out e-mail address and phone number to get group together. And order loads more G+T!

Your initial lobby could be to get them to open a temporary site for your year group which moves into new school when it is ready, as the new school will have capacity for them but the folks from the council will probably just think they'll start the school with reception in 2016. You really won't have to campaign alone, the trouble is that most of the people who will be affected are still worrying about whether their baby is ever going to talk/walk/sleep. You know how soon it will come around and you need to wake them up.

Nowhere available TO set up a new 'free' school. No empty buildings etc. TBH, I'd be glad to get any other school within the local area than the current one (various reasons, but it won't even feature in my 3 choices!).

As for pre-schools, most dc won't GET a place, we are woefully short as it is for places, and with NO new places planned, even for DS3's cohort, if he gets a place at pre-school at all I'll be surprised. If he does, it will only be because they take length of time on the waiting list as a tie-breaker after date of birth here, and he is a Jan '11 baby, and has been on the list since he was 8 days old!!

That's why you need to get some publicity and a lobby together. They have over 3 years to get the school built sooner for your ds. It does not take over 4yrs to build a school. Say that worst case scenario you would be happy to send to portacabins with packed lunch for a year while building work is completed. There will be space in the school once it is built. All you are asking for is two teachers and a few portacabins. Sounds as if they will probably need them for bulge classes anyway. Obviously what you really want is for them to get going on new school sooner, but it sounds as if you are being more reasonable.

Seriously get in touch with local paper, get a group of people together. You have time on your side at the moment. If you make enough noise you might be heard, better than waiting for 3yrs and appealing. Most parents in your situation have no idea and they need to be told. With your disability, if you choose to say about it, you make a great story, even if you choose not to say a sad mother seems to get into papers here. Get photo by building plot with your son and print out of report, look v. sad. Put notices up in library, sure start centres etc. It will be hard work at first, but once you get a few people concerned it could snowball. At least then you will know you tried.