NC target levels

[mrstrainer]

Hi everyone,

Can anyone explain, please! My son is in year 3 and in his school report he has his year 3 target levels and year 6 target levels. How come they are trying to predict what would happen to him in year 6? What is the highest level that you can achieve in year 6?

Thanks! I am a bit confused.

The expected level for Year 6 is 4b (levels are split into sublevels with a higher than b higher than c). However, each child is different and so the expectations of each child will be different as well. An amount of children will get level 5s in year 6 and an amount of children will get level 3s in year 6. This year there are SATs papers to test up to level 6 in year 6. This seems to be resulting in some stressed children, parents and schools although there are some children who are easily performing at that level (very small minority I would imagine though).

At secondary school we have target grades predicted for the end of a Key Stage, based on what the child has ahcieved before. Its done by comparison to the thousands of pupils who have gone through the system previously. So, although its not an exact science and every child is individual in their progress, it is a fairly accurate indicator of where you might expect a pupil to be in the future.

I'm guessing its the same at primary. Having recorded the end of KS1 assessments last year, they can now start making predictions about where your Dc will be in the future. I think the highest level you can get at KS2 is a 5a (with a possible extension papper into level 6 in exeptional cases?). the average will be a 4b-ish

Thanks everyone! Well he is predicted to get 5C in almost everything but he is already 4c in reading and 3a in maths. So do you think children's development slows down in KS2 because up till now it looks like he jumps 2 sub levels to a level per year.

yes, I think that it does.... or the sub levels are harder to get!

5c is a good target and, if he gets it, he will be set up well for secondary school. (but that is still a long way off!)

The Year 6 levels may well be from the Fischer Family Trust rather than being the school's own predictions. The FFT produces estimates of likely attainment given not only levels at the end of year 2 but also other variables such as ethnic background, socioeconomic data, SEN, using a 'contextual value added' model based on national data.

It's quite sensible, in the main. The school can choose the level of 'ambition' in the targets it sets, but it is certainly better than the crude 'every child should make 1 level every 2 years / 2 sublevels every year / whatever' that internal school target setting might otherwise be based on

Thanks. I asked his teacher about that but she could not tell me really and I asked what would happen if he reaches this level before year 6 and she said that she said that she did not know.

Datatracking produces statistical predictions as to where a child should be, it starts from EYFS scores and can then anticipate what a grade will be.
Completely devoid of the human context or any events that may intervene.
It's basically the end product of the raw materials fed into the machine, with sampling along the way.
There is no limit as to the level he can achieve in maths, writing and reading, he needs to be taught the skills and curriculum content as required to achieve a 6 or 7.

Isn't it a bit cruel though to set targets for young children and what would happen if he can't achieve his target, he would feel as a failure.

Depends what the reasons were for him failing to achieve his target grade. Usually one of the purposes is to use the grades as part of the teacher's performance management meetings.
'The prediction was to have 97% at a level 3c to be on track for a 4a at Y6 and it hasn't happened, Explain your failure'

The expectation is that most children will make 2 full levels progress in KS1 (over 2 years) and 2 full levels progress in KS2 (over 4 years)

mrstrainer:

a lot of good information here on what the levels mean and how many sub-levels one might improve by per year (or levels by keystage).

What I would add is that you should treat this as a guide rather than a guarantee. If you'd like to see your child performing at above average by end Y6 as they leave for secondary (so NC Level 5) than you need to be plugged into good, steady progress year on year as he progresses through KS2.

I think the mistake is to receive the information, think that's fine then, and then just ignore it. I personally keep my little sheets of NC Level information (notes before sheets were provided) so that I have a little history of how DDs are performing. I find it very useful and intriguing in terms of school politics.

Useful: I can see that my children are indeed progressing over short & long term (which we want as parents).

Intriguing: I note that on several occasions end of Year NC Level is lowered at start of following school year (so a 2c end Y1 was lowered to 1a start Y2, 2a end Y2 was lowered to 2b start Y3). I know the teachers are expected to progress each pupil 2 sub-levels and do somewhat wonder if this 'lowering' isn't artificial to make the target that bit easier to achieve.

But I may just be an old cynic.

There was guidance sent to that a 2C (or 3C) shouldn't be regarded as a level 2 (level 3) at the end of KS1 PastSellByDate especially if the child was a borderline 2C (3C)

www.millfields.hackney.sch.uk/uploads/content/docs/Key%20Stage%20Two%20SATs%20Explained.htm

thanks mrz - that does make a bit of sense for 1 academic year.

What do you think the reason of dropping 2a to 2b, 2b to 2c or 3a to 3b might be?

It's happened 2 out of 3 years (class R probably doesn't count) for DD2 and 4 out of 5 years (again class R not counting for DD1) - coincidence? or cunning?

I know you don't have all the givens mrz but every year?

If a child is assessed as 2a they should be a secure 2a the same with 2b etc